This return to FPL will go down in history for managers who went with both Bruno Fernandes and Mohammed Salah. We encountered the first points differentiator in GW1. It is almost impossible to draw conclusions from a singular game week so I thought I would share a splattering of things I noticed. Let’s start by calling our eye test for a little scouting in this FPL Gameweek 2 Matchups blog.
FPL Gameweek 2 Matchups
EYE TEST – LUCAS MOURA
A shout to @Actor_Abdul for directing me down the Moura rabbit hole.
Lucas Moura stood out in the match against Manchester City as a player that seemed to make everything make sense. To me, it looked like Nuno Espirito Santo took a page out of Pep’s book and employed the Brazilian in some of the same ways Pep uses Gundogan, except on the right rather than the left.
While Son’s positioning was fluid, the passes made and passes received maps confirm he tended to prefer combining with Lucas on the right side than Bergwijn on the left.
Lucas made 10 recoveries while also providing link play in midfield and late runs into the box, 3 elements of Gundo’s typical contributions for MCI. These recoveries are a key element in generating counterattacks.
Linking. Lucas knows the space that will open in his area of the field once the wingback (Mendy) got involved in the attack. Sterling has a propensity for trying to gently run through people, and loses this ball to Hojbjerg. Hojbjerg’s pass to Lucas beats half the MCI team.
Deep-lying playmaking. Timing is an underrated element of the beautiful game. Players literally dictate tempo and rhythm on the field. Here we see a medium distance dance between Lucas and Son. The dance is so precise, it catches Dias on the wrong foot. A half-step sooner, and Dias could have turned to face this ball.
Son makes a bit of a mess of his touch and angle, but still has an opportunity here without pressure. Nice to see Lucas continue his run.
Creating space. In this next play we see Lucas move wide, opening the field for Hojbjerg. Unfortunately, Hojbjerg plays this ball to behind Son to Reguilon rather than in the space behind Ake.
We finally end up with this situation. Notice how Lucas is once again in frame, looking at the ball, but also reading Son’s run.
Trailing runs. Lucas finds the space created by Son and takes a very poor shot that doesn’t even come close to challenging Ederson, but you like to see the trailing run in him.
Lastly, Lucas had 2 SiB and 1 SoB in the match. It’s not much, but one must remember the opponent and the fact that Son did not have any big chances either and only had 2 more shots, yet 1 fewer in the box.
Nuno has assembled a pacey counterattacking side who impressed in their first match against the former champions. Son and Lucas had a quite synergistic game and are a pairing to look out for. This radar graph from understat I think shows how Moura is a motor in build up and chance creation, while Son is the foil.
It saddens me to say that I find it difficult to see where Dele Alli fits into this scheme. I counted several plays where his lack of pace prevented him from exploiting space created by Son. He also doesn’t offer much in terms of ball recovery, making him a frustrating player to watch at the moment.
STATS – ADAM ARMSTRONG
I had never seen Adam Armstrong play before this weekend so I will keep this analysis to a purely statistical one.
Last season in the Championship, Armstrong played 3,712 minutes and generated the following stats:
- Shots/90: 4.83
- SoT/90: 2.17
- Shot %: 45%
- Goals: 28
- xG: 27.76
At £6.0m, AA becomes an intriguing option even when only taking half or 1/3 of the stats to account for the increased difficulty in the Premier League.
To add to this, I want to bring up his xG on Target (xGoT). While exploring some of the highest xGoT players of the week, I saw AA sitting there at 4th with 1.03 so I decided to take a closer look. I found that his xG against EVE was only 0.5 and AA had the most xG added to shots when on target. Here is what that looks like on the field of play.
AA does not just score this chance originating from Keane’s error, he buries the ball where someone would hide their stash, skyrocketing the xGoT.
Coincidentally, they were talking about AA on @TheAthletic’s Football Tactics Pod, and it was mentioned that AA was then only major goal scorer in the Championship last season whose xGoT was greater than his xG. If he can continue this pattern in the PL, AA could see some FPL hauls.
Last season, the teams that gave the most xG to teams when shots were on target were NEW (4.63), WHU (6.68), BUR (6.26), CRY (6.9), ARS (7.04), and LEE (7.51).
The teams that gifted the most xG when conceding shots on target in GW1 were CRY (0.53), WOL (0.69), AVL (0.74), SOU (0.91), and NEW (0.96), but this small sample size of one game doesn’t tell us much without also looking at each goal, which I won’t do here. I bring this up because I want to pay more attention to shots on target when analyzing forwards.
xGoT Matchups
The top 5 players for xGoT in GW 1 were:
- Antonio 1.56
- Wilson 1.06
- DCL 1.05
- Armstrong 1.03
Antonio is up against a seemingly very tough matchup against a LEI side who only had a 0.2 xGoTC in GW1 thanks to Adama’s poor finshing. LEI still conceded 1.49 xG to WOL. There is potential here.
Wilson faces a reeling Villa side coming off a loss to newly promoted Watford. From an xGoT perspective, I am reminded of the deflection on Sarr’s goal. Might inflate the xGoT.
DCL will confront a Leeds side who only added 0.13 xG to shots that were on target. Leeds is at home and will have Phillips back. I see DCL as a potential trap this GW.
Armstrong has a challenging matchup against United, but they did concede an xGoT of 1.0 compared to their xGC of 0.6. There seems to be some potential here for the clinical AA.
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Little Prince: Virgil Van Dyke
“Only the children know what they are looking for.” – Antoine de Saint-Exupéry, The Little Prince
Having had 4 ACL surgeries myself, I can’t help but root for big dutchman returning from injury, and the matchup lines up perfectly for him.
Burnley GW1:
- 3rd most attempts conceded from set pieces (6)
- Joint most headed shots conceded (5)
- 7th most crosses from the left conceded (10)
The first two stats line up perfectly for the VVD, and the final one is for Trent owners out there and those that enjoy a little stack.
Thank you for joining me in this reflection on GW1. I urge you not to be too hasty with conclusions and predictions. We must be patient with our knowledge and allow patterns to appear. Until then, enjoy the mystery.
Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 2:
FPL GW2 Watchlist – Stand Out Players Who Impressed in GW1
Gameweek 1: Fantasy Premier League Detailed Review
FPL Gameweek 2 Analysis- Players to Buy | Hold | Sell Ahead of FPL GW2
FPL GW2 Transfer Trends Analysis | Popular Transfer Combinations
FPL GW1 Scout Notes: Southampton, Barnes, Norwich Under the Lens
FPL Gameweek 2: Three Fixtures to target for FPL Points
Also check out our Rules and Basics Guide, FPL Chip Strategy, FPL Chips, FPL Team reveals, FPL History, team reveals, FPL Tools here.
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We’ll be covering Gameweek one eye test analysis and review, fixture analysis, players to watch out for in FPL Gameweek 2, differential picks, captaincy metrics, transfer trend analysis, expected line up, press conference summaries, Buy, hold, sell analysis for FPL gameweek two, our expert panel team reveals and more. Keep checking allaboutfpl.com for all our blogs and subscribe to our free newsletter through the link below. We’ll also be posting regularly about the same on our social media accounts so follow us on Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook keep our notification ON.
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