This FPL GW36 matchups blog is written by Gabriel also known as FPLLens on Twitter. Do drop him a follow on Twitter and stay tuned for his matchups blogs as he’s now a resident writer here at allaboutfpl.com. Check out his previous matchups articles here. Also, check out Netthathaul on YouTube for the matchups and Compass episodes where FPLLens is a co-host with FPLmariner, @FPL_Nima, and @Hibbo_FPL.
Welcome back to FPL Matchups; my weekly think piece where I use my coaching lens to explore matchups in the #PL to gain some insight to navigate our #FPL decisions.
It feels like ages since we have met here. Thank you for joining me once again.
This week I turn my eye to matchups that intrigue me for BGW36, with an eye towards using my FH chip. The starting point for this week’s article is @FPLMariner’s new algorithm XI. This algorithm is still a work in progress and is only a baby at 4 weeks old.
I did a matchups analysis on each of the players picked here. If the analysis did not provide a compelling counterpoint to the selection, I kept the player. So a neutral analysis (neither supporting nor refuting the pick) means the players stays. There was only 1 neutral analysis.
GK AND DEFENSE
Ederson – I like this selection a lot. Very safe. The secret to MCI’s success this season has undoubtedly been their defense. After allowing 11 goals in their first 8 matches, they only allowed 15 goals in the following 27 matches. Pep will want tog et his defense in tip top form in preparation for the UCL final.
Martinez – The reason I did not follow the algo here is because I cannot turn my back on the GK who is likely to break the FPL points record when he is playing a beached Palace side. Oh, he’s also 0.7m cheaper. GOAT GK.
TAA – in!
Coleman – When I first saw this selection, I ignored it and got Digne instead. The matchup, however, checked my bias. SHU have conceded the 9th fewest chances from their right side in the last 6 matches. However, I am hearing there is a chance Coleman gets a rest in this easier matchup and Iwobi gets the start. Digne for the safety of the pick.
Mendy – Mendy’s positioning and role on the field is exciting, and I do believe Pep will prioritize getting his defense back on track, but to do that, he will probably use Zinchenko on the left side. Rather than deal with this headache, I have elected for the more affordable Stones. He is also quite likely to start after serving his 3-match ban. Stones in for security and price. The heatmaps show us how advanced Mendy plays. He even doesn’t recover very deep. It also shows that almost all his touches come from passes received. Touches and passes received is similar for most players, but it is typically not identical like this for defenders. Mendy is an attacking player in this side. I’m still keeping my Stones.
Martinez – Trent – Digne – Stones for me.
MIDFIELD
Salah – Chasing the golden boot, get in Mo.
Mane – Maybe my favorite pick of the week. Here is why he will be my captain this GW. WBA conceded fewer chances from their left side and attack more from that side. In the last 6 matches, WBA have conceded 21 chances from their left compared to 29 from their right and have created 23 chances from the left compared to 23 chances combined from the middle and right. The reason I think their chances created is important is because I think Pereira will have Trent engaged and may limit his opportunity to combine with Salah. I still see a good game for Salah, but these little elements indicate an opportunity to differentiate if one were so inclined. I am so inclined.
Villa Boys – in short, not for me. Aside from conceding the 2nd most BC over the last 6 (16), CRY is bad but not the worst in other statistical categories. Yes, they are on the beach for the most part, but Villa may be as well. The return of Grealish could see El Ghazi on the bench and the team could get a boost from Jack’s return, but there are too many question marks for me to invest. Not for me.
Son – One of my favorite players this week. As most turn their eyes to Kane as “essential,” I don’t like the fact that WOL have conceded the 6th fewest BC in the last 6 matches (10), and have only conceded 11 chances from the center of the field. Son’s matchup against Semedo, on the other hand, seems quite tasty. WOL have conceded 21 chances from their right in the last 6 and Kane only has 1 more SIB than Son in that time.
Kane is still, of course, a good pick because he is also competing for the golden boot and is facing Patricio who has not been good recently. WOL xG in the last 6 is 6.08, but their xGoT (on target, or post shot xG) is much higher at 8.2. This means that WOL have added 2.12 xG to shots due to bad goalkeeping. Kane can take advantage of this, but I think his points can be matched with other FOR options.
Gundo and Foden – No MCI player has more goals than Gundo (12). He came to FPL relevance when KDB got injured as he filled in on the left side of midfield. KDB has been ruled out for this match so I think we see a resurgent Gundo this GW. I also can’t deny the sentimentality of the pick for my TC hero. Foden has been fantastic in the CL and I expect Pep to begin getting him in gear for the final. What I like about this matchup is that NEW also have the 2nd most BCC in the last 6 matches, and they have also conceded the most chances from their right side in that time (34). To add, NEW have conceded the most crosses from the right side as well with 83. EVE have conceded the 2nd most from that side, but only a mere 68. There is going to be a lot of action for MCI left side attackers. I know Mahrez is a popular pick this week, but given these matchups stats, I see Mahrez assisting or assisting the assister.
FORWARDS
Wood – A favorite of Big Man Bakar’s, Wood is hard… to ignore with the most SoT in the last 6 (13), 2nd highest xGI (4.78), most BC (8), and facing LEE who have conceded the 2nd most chances from the center in the last 6 (32). Wood in.
Ings – I just don’t know hat I am going to get out of SOU. Ings seems motivated, but his team just might not show up. FUL defensive stats are also not terrible. In the last 6 they have conceded 18 chances down the middle, which is 9th best. FUL have conceded 14 BC over that time so there is opportunity, but I would be upset if I chose Ings and SOU decided to take the day off. I would feel like I should have guessed that so I’d rather go without and he returns, than get him and he blanks.
DCL – Easy pick here. SHU Have conceded the most chances down the middle in the last 6 (34), and the 2nd most BC (16). Attack SHU, simple.
Antonio – Finding good form and playing against a BHA team w/o Dunk.
Dallas – I don’t expect Leeds to keep a clean sheet, but Dallas could very well see attacking returns in this one. Probably from a cross as BUR struggle in wide areas.
Konsa – Cheap cover with the potential for a headed goal against a CRY side that is bad in the air.
Gabe’s FPL GW36 Freehit Team:
Thanks once again for spending your time with me. Apologies for the late post this week, but I was happy to get it out. I hope this was helpful in informing your own decisions. Wishing you all an emerald city of green this GW. Good luck.
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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW36:
FPL GW36 Wildcard- Best Combinations, Tips, And Team Reveal
FPL BGW36 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of FPL GW36 Deadline
Teams and Players to Consider for the Remaining of the FPL Season
FPL Forward Options – A changing of the Guard in the Final Few Weeks?
FPL BGW36 Transfer Trends Analysis | Popular Transfer Combinations
FPL Tools Overview, Comparison, and Feature Analysis
All that you need to know about FPL cup
History Of Fantasy Football And Origin Of FPL
FPL History: Highest Scoring FPL Players Each Year Since The First FPL Season in 2002/03
FPL Tools guide for managers: Free and Paid
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