FPL GW 37 & GW38 Analysis – Teams and Players to Target for The Run In

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An exceptional fantasy premier league 2020/2021 season is about to come to an end with only two fixtures remaining for all teams. In this article, we will try to figure out who are the teams and players to target for the final two fixtures.  Before analyzing the fixtures, I want to grab the attention of few key factors that FPL managers should consider while making transfers during the final stretch.

First, FPL managers should pay close attention to the team level of motivation. Teams like Leicester City, Chelsea, Liverpool, West Ham and Tottenham all have something to play for in the final stretch of the season, and it would be worthwhile to target assets from these teams.

Sheffield, West Brom, and Fulham are OFFICIALLY relegated to the championship next season and all recorded very poor attacking and defending stats which may push FPL managers to target the assets playing against them

Another factor that always influences our transfer plan is the Golden Boot race. With only two fixtures remaining, I believe that the race is between Harry Kane (£11.8 – 22 Goals) and Mohamed Salah (£12.8 – 22 Goals) also we may consider a surprise blitz from Bruno Fernandes (£11.4 – 18 Goals) as well as Heung-Min Son (£9.7 – 17 Goals)

Teams and Players to Target in FPL GW37 & GW 38

Now lets have a look over the upcoming fixtures in the last milestone.

Westham 

The Hammers are visiting a relegated WBA side who have conceded 45 shots on target (1st worst) and managed to keep only one clean sheet in their last 6 game weeks and then host Southampton who failed to keep any clean sheet in their last 6, conceding the 2nd biggest number of chances (16). Both teams have the 2nd and 5th xGC respectively during the same period as well.

Since the return from his injury in GW34, no one had penalty touches more than Antonio except Benteke. Antonio also has recorded an xG = 2.06 the third-best after Benteke and Harry Kane. On the other hand and although his numbers in the past few weeks are descending, Jesse Lingard recorded 15 attempts on target over the last 6 game weeks (5th best).

A tactical tip for why Antonio and Lingard are essential for the West Brom game in specific is that the Baggies are the worst in conceding chances from the Centre, 2nd worse from the right flank since GW31  (Antonio as Right Forward and Lingard as a Left Forward/ False nine in front of Benrahma/Fornals).

Further Read: FPL GW37 Transfer Trends Analysis | Popular Transfer Combinations

Liverpool

Huge numbers and performance for the Reds over the few past weeks and why not if they are challenging for a UCL spot next season. No side in the premier league had more goal attempts (119), shots on target (46), xG (12.62) over the last 6 game weeks than the Reds. 

Since FPL GW26, no team conceded goals more than Burnley (21) keeping only 2 clean sheets from 10 available as well as conceding 28 big chances. Both Burnley and Palace conceded the 2nd (47)and 3rd (44)most chances from their LEFT flank during the same period [ TAA + Salah side 👀 ] 

Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.7) is by far the Optimal choice for any FPL manager for the final two games based on his latest underlying stats [ Last 6 game weeks ] which we will spread part of them: Best in Penalty touches (17), Goal attempts (14), shots on target (5), xA (1.83), xGI (2.49)In addition, no player has better mins per chances created more than TAA (25) other than Shaw (24).

Mohamed Salah (£12.8) has the same target as his teammates however, the golden boot race with Harry Kane is an extra motivation for the Egyptian King. Both Kane and Salah are tied at 22 goals each. Salah’s stats speak for themselves no player has better mins per xGI (96.9) or shots inside the box (21) in the past 6 games than Mo.

Further Read: Diogo Jota Replacements for the Run In | FPL GW37 &38

Tottenham 

Spurs are still in the race for a Europe League spot with two final tough fixtures when they host Aston Villa and then travel to face Leicester who are challenging for a European place as well. Both teams have kept only one clean sheet in their last 6 matches with poor defensive stats.

Since FPL GW30, no team conceded goals more than Aston Villa with 47 shots on target ( 2nd worse ). Their Left Flank is very vulnerable as well with 29 chances conceded from this region ( 3rd worse ) which might help Gareth Bale a lot.

Despite Leicester City having kept only one clean sheet since GW30 and conceding 12 goals which ranks them as the 3rd worse defence. However, they are the 2nd least team conceded shots on target, 3rd best team in terms of shots inside the box conceded. From an attacking perspective, they have scored 12 goals and are the 3rd best for goal attempts on target (39).

Harry Kane is the choice number one for me and I am actually preferring Gareth Bale over Son for some reasons. Since the appointment of Ryan Mason, the Welsh winger has outscored Son in the mins per: chances created, goal attempts in the box, shots on target, and xGi while they are both nearly the same in Goals( 4 vs 3 ), Goal attempts (14 vs 13), shots inside the box ( 6 vs 6 ) in addition to the weak left flank of Aston Villa.

Further Read: FPL GW37 Transfer Trends Analysis | Popular Transfer Combinations

Chelsea & Leicester city 

With the tension and the furious competition on for the UCL 3rd and 4th spots, the next game between the Blues and the Foxes will be on fire and very unpredictable however I am expecting an angry reaction from Thomas Tuchel post his last FA cup final defeat against the same team.

Personally, if I am picking Chelsea and Leicester assets for the final 2 games I will not consider anyone rather than: Havertz and Mount from Chelsea and Iheanacho from Leicester, taking into consideration that Chelsea’s last match against Villa might be trashy for the Blues if they grab the 3 points against Leicester and very high percentage for resting the key players for the BIGGER GAME against Manchester City in the UCL Final.

Further Read: Diogo Jota Replacements for the Run In | FPL GW37 &38

Great assets to be considered for the final stretch 

Fernandes/Greenwood/Cavani : FUL(H) [GW37]

Willock – Joelinton : SHU(H) – ful(A)

Wood : shu(A) [GW38]

Dallas/ Raphinha/ Bamford : WBA(H)[GW37]

Aguero : EVE(H) [GW38]

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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW37:

FPL GW37 Transfer Trends Analysis | Popular Transfer Combinations
Diogo Jota Replacements for the Run In | FPL GW37 &38
FPL Tools Overview, Comparison, and Feature Analysis
All that you need to know about FPL cup
History Of Fantasy Football And Origin Of FPL
FPL History: Highest Scoring FPL Players Each Year Since The First FPL Season in 2002/03
FPL Tools guide for managers: Free and Paid

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