This FPL GW 37 blog is written by AK. He is a big Chelsea fan and has been playing FPL since 2012/13. He has finished in the top 5k twice with a Best Overall Rank of 1,140 in the 17/18 season. AK is also ranked number 7 in the all-time list of best FPL managers in India. He believes in the Eye test and uses statistics to verify them. Do give him a follow on Twitter and check out his articles on allaboutfpl.com here.
The “Double or Nothing” Model is back for FPL GW 37 after another successful week, where the Model pointed towards Mo Salah, who got the most points out of all the candidates in GW36. We have been successful 4 times out of 5 this season, not bad when you have a 1-to-5 chance of picking the successful captaincy each week, eh?
FPL GW37 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd
[Total_Soft_Poll id=”6″]
We are back for FPL GW 37 and Mohammed Salah clearly leads our Captaincy Poll with 51% of votes. Salah is followed by Manchester United’s Bruno Fernandes (21%) and Harry Kane (18%). Mason Greenwood (4%) and Gareth Bale (2%) round off the captaincy candidates this week.
Underlying Numbers of the Captaincy Candidates
| (C)andidate | Shots Inside The Box | Chances Created | Big Chances Total | Expected Goals (xG) | Expected Goal Involvement (xGI) | Player’s Attack Rank |
| Salah | 21 | 12 | 6 | 3.43 | 5.26 | 2 |
| Bruno | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2.34 | 3.20 | 3 |
| Greenwood | 16 | 3 | 3 | 2.31 | 2.61 | 4 |
| Harry Kane | 18 | 8 | 9 | 5.44 | 1.99 | 1 |
| Gareth Bale | 6 | 7 | 2 | 1.54 | 1.47 | 5 |
Harry Kane comes out on top this week. Although he has had fewer Shots Inside the Box than Salah (who comes second) by 21 to 18, Kane has had more Big Chances(9) and has a better xG of 5.44.
Bruno Fernandes comes in at third place, just edging his teammate Mason Greenwood on xG (2.34 to 2.31), while Gareth Bale has only managed an xG of 1.54, over the last 6 matches.
Further Read: FPL GW 37 & GW38 Analysis – Teams and Players to Target for The Run In
Underlying Numbers of the Candidates Teams
| (C)andidate | Shots Inside The Box | Big Chances Total | Expected Goals (xG) | Team’s Attack Rank |
| Liverpool (Salah) | 82 | 22 | 12.62 | 1 |
| Manchester United (Bruno) | 61 | 14 | 10.03 | 2 |
| Manchester United (Bruno) | 61 | 14 | 10.03 | 2 |
| Tottenham (Kane) | 56 | 14 | 10.03 | 4 |
| Tottenham (Bale) | 56 | 14 | 10.03 | 4 |
Liverpool have the best underlying numbers as a team in the last 6 games. A total of 82 Shots Inside the Box and 22 Big Chances in Total, helps in boosting their xG at 12.62.
However, the other 4 candidates are surprisingly, all tied up on xG (10.03) and Big Chances Total (14). Manchester United do have more Shots Inside the Box (61) than Tottenham Hotspurs (56), which places them just above Spurs in our metric.
Further Read: Diogo Jota Replacements for the Run In | FPL GW37 &38
Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW 37
| (C)andidate | Shots Conceded Inside The Box | Big Chances Conceded | Expected Goals Conceded (xGC) | Fixture Difficulty Rank |
| Burnley (vs Salah) | 63 | 12 | 9.31 | 3 |
| Fulham (vs Bruno) | 49 | 15 | 9.70 | 1 |
| Fulham (vs Greenwood) | 49 | 15 | 9.70 | 1 |
| Aston Villa (vs Kane) | 54 | 10 | 8.40 | 4 |
| Aston Villa (vs Bale) | 54 | 10 | 8.40 | 4 |
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.
Fulham, who are facing Manchester United this week, have the worst defensive stats among all teams we are looking into here. Although, they have conceded the least amount of Shots Inside the Box (49) among the teams in focus, they have conceded the most Big Chances Conceded (15) and consequently, have the highest xG Conceded (9.70).
Burnley’s numbers also don’t bode well for them defensively, having conceded 63 Shots Inside the Box in last 6 games, conceding 12 Big Chances in total and 9.31 xG Conceded.
The most difficult fixture, however, will be played by Tottenham, who are up against Aston Villa. The Villains have conceded 54 Shots Inside the Box and 10 Big Chances Conceded in the last 6 matches. With an xG Conceded of 8.40, this fixture looks to be the toughest for our metric, but not by a huge margin.
Further Read: FPL GW37 Transfer Trends Analysis | Popular Transfer Combinations
Projections Rank
| (C)andidate | Anytime Returns GW30 (FFHUB Tool) | Projected Points (FFHUB) | Safety Ranking | Explosion Rank | Average Rank Factor | Safety + Explosion Rank |
| Salah | 72% | 8.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Bruno | 60% | 6.3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Greenwood | 50% | 4.9 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Kane | 66% | 6.8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Bale | 51% | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
In the Fourth Phase of the article, I have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.
I have then averaged the Two Ranks to churn out the Average Rank Factor, which I have used to determine the Safest yet Explosive option.
The popular week of the week, Mohammed Salah has the highest Anytime Returns Projections at 72%, while his Projected Points is also the highest at 8.1, which makes him the most likely Candidate to return an Explosion.
Tottenham’s Harry Kane comes in behind the Egyptian, with an Anytime Returns Projections at 66% and Projected Points at 6.8.
Kane’s teammate Gareth Bale comes in at fourth, with his Anytime Returns Projections of 51% and Projected Points of 5.0. Mason Greenwood completes the list of candidates, having an Anytime Returns Projections of 50% and Projected Points of 4.9, almost identical to that of Gareth Bale above.
Further Read: FPL GW 37 & GW38 Analysis – Teams and Players to Target for The Run In
Bruno Fernandes comes in at third behind Kane, with an Anytime Returns Projections at 60% and Projected Points at 6.3.
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL GW 37 Captaincy metric analysis
| (C)andidate | Player’s Attack Rank | Team’s Attack Rank | Favourable Fixture Rank | Safety + Explosion Rank | Cumulative Rank Factor |
| Salah | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| Bruno | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| Greenwood | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| Harry Kane | 1 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 11 |
| Bale | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 17 |
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor. The Candidate having the lowest Cumulative Rank Factor is the most ideal Captaincy Option according to this metric.
As highlighted in the Community Votes, it’s Mohammed Salah who has the least CRF of 7, just about beating Bruno Fernandes, who has a CRF of 9.
Surprisingly, Harry Kane sees himself at third with a CRF of 11, just about beating Mason Greenwood (12).
Gareth Bale has the worst CRF of the lot at 17, showing how much better the other picks are than the Welshman.
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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW37:
FPL GW 37 & GW38 Analysis – Teams and Players to Target for The Run In
FPL GW37 Transfer Trends Analysis | Popular Transfer Combinations
Diogo Jota Replacements for the Run In | FPL GW37 &38
FPL Tools Overview, Comparison, and Feature Analysis
All that you need to know about FPL cup
History Of Fantasy Football And Origin Of FPL
FPL History: Highest Scoring FPL Players Each Year Since The First FPL Season in 2002/03
FPL Tools guide for managers: Free and Paid
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AK - Anurag Khetan
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