Dicing for Differentials: Looking at Gameweek 38 Punts

As we approach gameweek 38, the last one of the season, it seems a perfect time to take an estimated punt. I will be aiming to pick out players who have under 10% ownership coupled with a strong fixture, as well look to jump up the ranks on the final day. Hope you enjoy and let’s get into this!

FPL Gameweek 38 Punts

Kai Havertz (avl), £8.3, TSB: 3.6%

It has been somewhat of an underwhelming season for the German, who came to the Premier League with such promise, only returning 7 times (3 goals, 4 assists). However, as a one-week punt, Havertz looked a great option. He has an xG of 0.67 per 90 in the last 6, having 1.33 big chances per 90 in the same period, both 1st in the Chelsea squad. Havertz has also been used as a Central Striker under Thomas Tuchel, with Werner firing blanks. And with Havertz classified as a midfielder, the points potential is even higher.

Looking at the opposition, Aston Villa have been very poor of late, with an xGC of 1.67 per 90 in the last 6, compared to 1.44 per 90 for the rest of the season. The Villans are also conceding 9 shots in the box per 90, highlighting how they often rely on Emi Martinez. Villa are also lingering in mid-table, with seemingly not a lot to play for. Due to the lack of motivation and poor numbers, I think Havertz is a great option for Gameweek 38.

Further Read: The Madness of the Final Day | FPL GW38 Fixtures To Target

Sadio Mané (CRY), £11.7, TSB: 6.1%

Looking at a player who has a premium price, but hasn’t performed like a premium player before, Mané has never hit the heights of last season. The Senegalese winger has endured a tough campaign, but I can see a lot of positives looking at GW38. With Jota injured, this frees up a Liverpool slot in your sides, and his numbers have improved of late. In the last 6, he has had 0.8 big chances per 90, taking 2 shots in the box per 90 in the process.

Now to the game, Crystal Palace have been ‘on the beach’ for a while now. The Eagles have an xGC of 1.61 per 90 this season, the 7th worst in the division. The Eagles have also conceded 9.47 shots in the box per 90, and with Mane taking 2.31 shots in the box per 90, it looks like a match made in heaven. Mane could also be a huge differential captaincy option this week, if desperate to make up points. But if not your Skipper, a fantastic option for a huge points haul.

Further Read: The Madness of the Final Day | FPL GW38 Fixtures To Target

Chris Wood (shu), £6.5, TSB: 4.3%

The Kiwi is a man who divided opinion all season but recently scored 3 against a strong Wolves defense. Since scoring against Arsenal in GW27, Wood has the highest xG per 90 in the division (0.70), having 1.1 big chance per 90 in that time. This has coincided with Burnley’s change of philosophy; Dyche has gone with a much more attacking approach in the 2nd half of the season. This benefits Wood, who is the target of a lot of crosses, having 1 headed chance per 90 in the last 6.

Turning to the opposition, Sheffield United have been woeful this season. This season they have the 2nd worst xGC (1.89) and concede the most big chances (2.65) in the league. At the same time, the Blades are conceding 2.49 headed chances per 90, with Chris Wood licking his lips. United have seemed to improve, however, in recent weeks, fairing a lot better when competing against a 3 at the back system. But with Burnley’s classic 4-4-2, I fear that the floodgates may open up. For these reasons, I think Wood is a great pick for a final day flutter.

Further Read: The Madness of the Final Day | FPL GW38 Fixtures To Target

Gabriel Jesus (EVE), £9.1, TSB: 2.6%

The Brazilian has been out of favor in recent weeks under Guardiola, only starting 2 out of the last 5. But this is a reason I think he’s a great option. Jesus has an xG of 0.25 per 90 this season, 5th best in the squad. The forward has also had 0.43 big chances per 90, taking 1.46 shots in the box per 90. It also seems Jesus isn’t in Pep’s best XI, but with the UCL only 6 days after Everton, I think Jesus will be given 90 so that other key players can be rested for the Final.

Inspecting the opposition, Everton have been strong in recent weeks, with an xGC of 1.1 per 90, 4th best in the division. But the toffees concede 1.57 big chances per 90, facing 6.86 shots in the box per 90. They are also coming up against the Champions, so I think the stats can partially be ignored here. Jesus will be hungry to show Pep what he can do and will be desperate to feature in Porto. Hence I think Jesus is a strong option this week.

Further Read: The Madness of the Final Day | FPL GW38 Fixtures To Target

Saïd Benrahma (SOU), £5.9, TSB: 0.3%

For this player, I look at a huge differential, less than 1% ownership. I think this is what final day punts are all about; going for an unfancied player who has the potential to haul. Benrahma has been quite underwhelming this season but is finding form of late. He is fresh off of 3 returns in 4 games (1 goal, 2 assists). In this time, the Algerian has been involved in 50% of the Hammers’ goals, seemingly finding his feet after 20 games! Benrahma seems to be more of a creative force, having an xA of 0.39 per 90 in his last 4, the highest in the squad. He has also started the last 4, and with the winger rewarding Moyes’ trust, I don’t see a reason why he wouldn’t start on Sunday.

The opposition are Southampton, a team who have struggled in 2021. The Saints have an xGC of 1.74 per 90, conceding 2 big chances during this period. Southampton are also firmly ‘on the beach’. The Saints have conceded in each of their last 10, showing their defensive frailties of late. Benrahma can definitely capitalize on the weak defense, with a haul meaning a huge rank boost for whoever owns the winger.

Further Read: The Madness of the Final Day | FPL GW38 Fixtures To Target

FPL Gameweek 38 Captaincy poll

[Total_Soft_Poll id=”7″]

Do vote in this week’s allaboutfpl captaincy poll. The same will be available in the captaincy analysis and metrics blog written by AK. The metrics has been delivering consistently since debuting in GW29 and is absolutely free. Stay tuned for the same.

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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 38

Player odds, Cleansheet odds, and much more on Drafthound
The Madness of the Final Day | FPL GW38 Fixtures To Target
FPL Tools Overview, Comparison, and Feature Analysis
All that you need to know about FPL cup
History Of Fantasy Football And Origin Of FPL
FPL History: Highest Scoring FPL Players Each Year Since The First FPL Season in 2002/03
FPL Tools guide for managers: Free and Paid

Check out the latest Netthathaul Matchups show on YouTube

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What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 38 Deadline?

Our team of good writers are working relentlessly as we strive to deliver good FPL good content. Stay tuned for our, Differential picks(<10% TSB), Captaincy metrics for FPL GW38, How to win your mini-leagues with targetted transfers, FPL Transfer trend analysis, Our star writer Nima’s Team reveal, and Matchups blogs. All the blogs will be out soon ahead of a Sunday evening FPL deadline.

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