Why Fulham Striker Mitrovic Should Be In Your GW1 FPL Team?

A lot of our favorite FPL assets have been priced in the premium price range which means there is a need to choose budget assets in order to get our favorite FPL assets be it KDB, Auba, or salah, the list is limitless. Once such budget forward who could be a great FPL asset this season is Mitrovic. Here’s why Mitrovic will be in my FPL GW1 team and why he should be in yours!

Mitrovic FPL Stats from the PL season – 2018-19

This is compared to other FWD (expect auba since he’s reclassified)

PL season 2018/19
Games: 37
Minutes: 3.281 (1st)
Goals: 11 (14th)
xG: 16.12 (4th)
npxG: 15.35 (1st)
Assists: 4 (15th)
xA: 6.43 (9th)
Shots: 131 (1th)
On target: 48 (1th) 
In box: 96 (1th)
BC: 23 (joint 4th)
BCM: 15
xPts: 185.5 (1th)
44% GI (6th)
44% GI (6th)

As we can see it’s extremly great stats especially since he only was 24 years old at that time and played for a relegated team who only scored 34 goals. This season he and Fulham have most likely improved and I think he’ll be even better.  

Mitrovic 2019/20 season stats (Championship)

Since it was in the championship we don’t have access to the same kind of data as in the premier league

Starts: 38
Minutes: 3589
Goals: 26
xG: 24.25
Assists: 2 
G+A/90: 0.70
Goals+Assists/90: 0.78
Goal Involvement: 44%
Shots on target/90: 1.39
Shots per 90: 3.79
On target%: 37.7

One big difference compared to his PL season is that he overperformed his xG which he wasn’t able to do in the PL. That might be due to the lesser quality in the championship but also because he’s only 25 years old and has probably developed and been getting more clinical. 

Further Read: The Best Mid-Priced Strikers To Consider For The Upcoming 2020/21 FPL Season

Mitrovic Championship stats comparison: 2019/20 vs 2017/18

Now here’s a very interesting comparison I’ll show, his stats in the championship 2017/18 (the season before his incredible stats in the pl) versus his stats this season 2019/20.

Games: 38 vs 18
Goals: 26 vs 12
Assists: 2 vs 1
Goals+Assists/90: 0.78 vs 0.80
Goal Involvement: 44% vs 17%
Shots on target/90: 1.39 vs 1.59 
Shots per 90: 3.79 vs 4.43
On target%: 37.7 vs 36%

Mitrovic joined halfway through the season on the right, the stats are very similar which hopefully also means that his attacking numbers will be similar to his last PL season if not even better since he’s gained experience and been getting more clinical.

Further Read: FPL Fixture Analysis: Four Teams With The Best Opening Fixtures to Begin 2020/21 PL Season

How many goals will Fulham score in their 2020/21 PL campaign?

Last time in the PL Fulham only scored 34 goals which isn’t huge, with a new manager it’ll be hard to tell how many goals they’ll score now. So I calculated the average PL goals vs the average championship from the teams that scored less than 65 goals since Fulham scored 64 this season!

Cardiff 69 vs 34 (-35)
Huddersfield: 56 vs 28 (-28)
Middlesbrough: 63 vs 27 (-36)
Burnley 72 vs 39 (-33)
Hull City  69 vs 37 (-32)

32.8 the average difference and with Fulham scoring 63 goals we can expect them to score around 30 goals. And if Mitrovic continues with his 44% GI it’s likely that he’ll be involved in at least 13 goals since 30×0.44= 13.2. And I believe it’ll be slightly higher around 16/17 GI just for the fact that he has become a better striker and has been getting more clinical. So let’s say 14 goals and 2 assists would be a very good value for a 6.0 attacker. 

Further Read: Best FPL assets to consider from promoted teams ahead of 20/21 FPL season

How many Bonus Points can Mitrovic score in FPL this season?

3-1 loss 1 goal 6 points, 0 bonuspoints
4-2 2 goals, 1 assist 16 points, 3 bonuspoints
2-2 1 goal 1 YC 5 points, 0 bonuspoints
1-1 1 goal 0 YC 8 points, 2 bonuspoints
3-2 2 goals 13 points, 3 bonuspoints
1-0 1 goal 6 points, 1 bonuspoints
4-2 2 goals 13 points, 3 bonuspoints
1-0 1 goal 1 YC 5 points, 0 bonuspoints
Total: 12 bonus points, 11 goals 2 yellowcards

For every goal, he basically averages 1 BPS and that’s due to his YC and that he doesn’t get them when Fulham loses and has only gotten 3 BPS when he has scored a brace. So with our projection of him scoring 14 goals, I guess we can expect around 12 BPS again since he won’t score a brace that often. 

Yellow & Red card factor of owning Mitrovic in FPL!

One negative thing about owning Mitrovic is that he often gets YCs. He has played 159 league games in England and has gotten 25 Yellow Card and 2 Red Card.

Let’s try to work out how many YCs he’ll get this year!

25/159= 0.16 That means that he get’s a YC every 0.16 game.

38×0.16= 6 YC If he continues to average 0.16 YC he’ll get 6 YCs this season.

2/159=0.012

0.012×38=0.456

 Most likely no redcard but you never know with Mitrovic.

Further Read: Best FPL assets to consider from promoted teams ahead of 20/21 FPL season

Mitrovic Projected FPL Points

Assuming that he’s fit I really think that he’ll play over 60 minutes every game, 38×2=76 he’ll therefore get 76 appearances points. With our calculation of him getting around 14 goals Mitro will get 56 points from goals (14×4=56). Also, 12 BPS + 6 assist points and -6 points for his bookings. That adds up to 145 points which is great returns for a 6.0 Million Forward. 

Mitrovic projected FPL Points Per Million

If he gets 145 points which is very likely if he stays fit his PPM would be 24.2. If we compare that to last season’s striker on PPM we can see that he would be ranked 4th.

1.Ings 6.0 33 PPM
2.Ayew 5.0  26.4 PPM
3.Jimenez 7.5 25.9 PPM
4.Vardy 9.0: 23.3333 PPM
5.Wood: 6.5 20.9 ppm
6.Kane: 11.0 14.3 PPM
7.Jesus 9.5 15.3 PPM
8.Abraham 7.0 21.9 PPM
9.Aguerooo 12 11 PPM
10.Maupay 6.0 21.9 PPM 
11.DCL 6.0 21 PPM

Personally I don’t see PPM as an effective measurement tool but for the people that do that makes Mitrovic an even more attractive FPL asset.

Fulham Fixtures and Mitrovic heatmap:

As we can see his heatmap is very great for no.9 since he basically lives in the penalty area! His fixtures are great especially for a newly promoted team. He is also on penalties and a big talisman therefore I think he’s the standout option for your budget striker! 

Thank you for reading my blogpost about the Serbian beast, Mitrovic. To see more of my work make sure to check out my twitter! @FPL_Grillen Here are a few more blogs from our team of writers listed down below.

Further read from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of 2020/21 FPL Season: 

The game for next season has launched so does our content, check out some of our best so far, and stay tuned for more.

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The Best Mid-Priced Strikers To Consider For The Upcoming 2020/21 FPL Season
MJ’s column | FPL 2019/20 Season Review & Lessons Learnt Complete FPL Guide from the man who finished with an OR of 148
Best Budget Defenders to consider for the upcoming 2020/21 FPL season!
Meet World.No. 16- Dave King Discussing About His Remarkable FPL Season

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