AllAboutGW4 : Preview

GAMEWEEK DEADLINE : 31/08/2019,Saturday(4.00 PM IST)

Fixtures :

• Southampton vs Manchester United
• Chelsea vs Sheffield United.
• Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa
• Leicester vs Bournemouth
• Man City vs Brighton
• Newcastle vs Watford
• West Ham vs Norwich
• Burnley vs Liverpool
• Everton vs Wolves
• Arsenal vs Spurs

Most transferred IN players ahead of GW4 :

Most transferred out players ahead of GW4 :

Injuries and Suspensions(only the latest ones) :

Ruled out : Locadia,Andone(Brighton),Djenepo(Southampton),Antonio(West Ham),Redmond(Southampton),Targett(Villa),Martial,Luke Shaw(United),Jesus(Man City)

Doubtful : Kante,Pedro,Mount(Chelsea),Walker-Peters(Spurs),Joelinton,Ritchie(Newcastle),

Players to watch out for :

Goalkeepers :

Ederson(6.1) :

The only nailed starter in that city line up. His work gets unnoticed most of the times, surely one of the best sweeper keeper, his stats speaks for itself. Interesting to see how this evolves.As a supplement, xGP (expected goals prevented):

• Ederson -2.6
• Pickford -1.5
• Lloris -1.4
• Adrian -1.1
• Heaton -1.2
• Fabianski -1.3
• Kepa -1.4
• Gunn -1.8
• Krul -3.6

Against a weak Brighton side, a clean sheet seems very likely. Rope him in quickly if you don’t have City coverage in defense as no fixtures are hard for the defending champions!

2.Vincent Guaita(5.0) :

A save machine. His reflexes have been phenomenal. A mainstay in the Crystal Palace side, Guaita has silently proved his critics wrong. He faces Aston villa side, who have just made their mark. Cracking match ahead and expect Guaita to be among the points.

Defenders :

1.Trent Alexander Arnold(7.0) :

TAA will give you golden returns this season for the sheer volume of crosses he gets in the box plus set piece duties. Trent created the most chances (6), made the most crosses (13), 3 of which were successful including an assist to matip for the opener.

Key stats :

xA(Expected assists) of 1.77.Second in the league only behind Kevin De Bruyne.
Arnold in numbers vs Arsenal :
Most touches(108)
Most passes(71)
Most passes in opposition half(60)
Most crosses(13)
Most chances created(6)

2.Lucas Digne(6.0) :

Despite the 1 point return, Digne was a constant threat with 8 crosses and 4 chances created last game. His set pieces (4 corners taken vs 1 from Siggy) and overlapping runs bode well for future weeks. Get him guys, he is one for the future.

Key Stat :
8 goals and 5 assists in 41 games for Everton. Not bad for a defender?

3.Guilbert(4.4) :

• Guilbert (4.4m) offers a cheap route in to the Villa defence with the seriously impressing against Everton
• With just 6 shots on target in 3 games for Everton the likes of DCL, Richarlison, Bernard and co should be avoided until the Toffees can find some attacking threat
• Villa have a real opportunity to kick on now with games against Palace, West Ham and clean sheets can be expected.

Midfielders :

We have not listed Salah,Mane and Sterling as you must be owning atleast one of them in your team. There have been many changes from Salah to Mane in GW3(which was very surprising) and Salah scored a brace against the Gunners to disappoint the Mane owners. So,we suggest you to hold whoever you have among the three players and expect results in the longer run!

1.Kevin De Bruyne(9.7) :

Fixtures : Brighton(H),Norwich(A),Watford(H)

De Bruyne has been the focal point of Man City’s attack this season after being for the most part of last season. Man City’s most of the attacks have been from the right since the absence of Sane with Bernado Silva and De Bruyne combining on the right to provide the final ball for Aguero and Sterling. Bernado Silva can be one of the best players in Premier League but not from a FPL point of view. He has been in the thick of the things but has not added a goal/assist this season as Pep prefers one of the wingers to drop a little deep and help the midfield.

KDB in numbers :

1.xA(Expected assist) of 2.82(Highest in the league by a mile).
2.4 assists and 14 chances created in 3 games this season.(Highest)
3.BPS – 103(Second highest in Midfielders only behind Sterling)
4.Most passes in the final third(55)
5.xA90(Expected assist per 90 minutes): 0.97(Highest in the league)

Kevin is a dream for any FPL manager. Priced at 9.6 million, the Belgian is proven talent who is both creative and is also now far from unleashing a thunderbolt from nowhere!

2.Felipe Anderson(6.9) :

Fixtures : Norwich(H),Aston Villa(H),United(A)

Two home against two promoted teams who play high attacking football,West Ham could be in for a run for more goals. With Antonio getting injured in the league cup game midweek and Haller finding form at the right time,Felipe Anderson could well be the right man in your team atleast for the next few weeks.

Felipe Anderson in numbers :

1.One assist last weekend and another assist in the league cup game midweek vs Newport County.
2.Perfect replacement for injured Martial with cracking fixtures.
3.Outstanding xGi(Expected goal involvement) this season,9 goals and 4 assists last season.
4.Impressive xA(expected assists per game) of 1.15.

With an total ownership of just 4.8% and cracking fixtures,the Brazilian is a must own if you dont have Haller or Lanzini in your team.

3.Wilfried Zaha(6.9) :

Fixtures : Aston Villa(H),Tottenham(A),Wolves(H)

Taking only the last 15 games into account,Crystal Palace would be fourth on the Premier league. Surprising stat,but Palace have been silently doing the good work. Much credits for these performances would go to Wilfried Zaha for his individual masterclass. With the move to Everton on deadline day going down,Zaha is slowly getting things done and just finding the right form.

Zaha in numbers :

1.Second most take-ons completed this season(11) only behind Nicolas Pepe.
2.Second highest average dribbles per game(3.3).
3.10 goals and 11 assist last season and a penalty magnet!

Zaha is unfazed by the rumours that PSG are considering a 100 million move for him to replace Neymar. In fact, he came on as a second half substitute in the midweek game and scored a penalty. Putting it straight forward,”If palace manage to score, there is a 70% possibility of a Zaha involvement”. He could well be the perfect differential midfielder for this GW.

Forwards :

1.Tammy Abraham(7.1) :

• Tammy Abraham looked sharp with two fantastic finishes and maximum bonus points for an impressive 13 points last week. At 7M, he offers great value just be cautious of potential rotation with Giroud(which does not seem likely for now).Mount offered a real threat with his average positioning and one must keep an eye on him.

2.Haller(7.4) :

West Ham payed a huge amount of 45 million for the services of the striker Sebastian Haller in the summer transfer window and after seeing the way he played against Watford this week we believe he could be worth every penny they put in the deal. Haller is outstanding poacher and is displaying tremendous movement both inside the box and also between the defenders, he has set into the London based side very well and will be a good pick priced 7.4 million only.

Sebastien Haller’s game by numbers vs. Watford
71% pass accuracy
5 aerial duels won
4 shots (3 on target)
3 fouls won
2 goals

Verdict :
Sebastian Haller has become a real mid priced forward option (7.4m) with his brace against Watford. Had the most shots on target (3) of any forward this GW and had an xG of 1.82 against watford which was the highest for forwards in GW3. West Ham have great fixtures ahead, and he’s a clear differential at 3% ownership.

3.Wesley(6.0) :

Wesley was the best player on the pitch against Everton , scoring his debut goal for Villa. It is worth tempering this with the fact that he only had 3 touches in the penalty box, two of which were shots resulting in his goal, overreaching his xG of 0.46. At a budget friendly 6M striker option.

Captian picks for GW 4 :

1.Sergio Aguero(12.0) :

Sergio Aguero notched up a brace last week against Bournemouth to complete 400 career goals.Up against a mediocre Brighton side,Manchester City are expected to pump in more and more goals this weekend at the Etihad. With Gabriel Jesus ruled out for this week,one can expect Aguero to play the full 90 minutes and be on the scoresheet!

Key numbers :1.Second best goals to game ratio in Premier League history(0.69)
2.Most goals in PL in 2019(16 goals)
3.Most away goals in PL history among current players(71).

2. Harry Kane(11.1) :

Harry Kane drew a blank last week against Newcastle to disappoint the 1,151,418 managers who gave him the captianed him including me. Not often Kane blanks for two consecutive weeks,which suggests that he will play upto his potential to satisfy the manager’s trust(also FPL managers).Spurs will also want to quickly get back to form if at all they want to challenge for the title. So expect Kane to score in a high scoring game.

Key stat : 9 goals in his last games vs Arsenal in Premier League.

3. Sadio Mane (11.5) :

Sadio Mane has one goal and an assist in the two starts he got this season. The golden boot winner is back to his full fitness and willing to add more to his tally this season. Salah vs Mane has always been a FPL debate this season which suggests that captianing either of anyone who you have in your team is not a bad move!

4. Temmu Pukki(7.0) :

The goal machine, the GOAT as he’s been branded in certain circles . He’s a man in truly spectacular form. He’s in fact a summer solstice setting the world alight. He too has scored in every match, including a hattrick against Newcastle (and, perhaps most notably, a goal at Anfield in the opening day and a double digit score against a top 6 team in gw 3 (no, it’s not Newcastle). Fixture proof? Who knows, but in such an attacking team as Norwich, ignore him at your peril.

Next up is West Ham, a team not showing well in several key defensive stats. Here are some that may interest our Pukki owners: they have 7 goals conceded in 3 games, failed to keep a clean sheet and have conceded a whopping average of 18 shots per game! Norwich themselves have a total of 33 shots, 18 on target and he has 12 shots, 9 on target, so you do the math. Pukki is highly likely to have shots on target and he has a +50% conversion rate at the moment from those that hit the target.

Ultra Differential captain

Sébastien Haller (WHU) :

Sébastien Haller, the French goal machine. On an average, he has scored in every match he has played expect City in gw 1 but that’s perhaps no surprise given the opposition. He then didn’t feature in gw 2 because of a niggle and has now presented himself to the community with two typical poacher goals away at Watford. The way those goals came probably says more about the Watford defence than Haller’s ability but we’ve seen notable people fail easier chances, so yeah, he looks promising.

Promising, however is not reliable, so, might be the ultra Differential this week. Well, despite being a debutant in the English premier league, Haller has the pedigree to be a great footballer. These two teams have very similar attacking and defensive stats so in typical FPL fashion it’s gonna a 4-4 goal galore.

Gameweek deadline : 31/08/2019(Saturday),4PM(IST)
Next Blog : Big game preview : Arsenal vs Tottenham
All the best for GW4!