FPL GW12 – Best Forwards Analysis | Time to Sell Haaland?

As we move closer to a flurry of gameweeks in the month of December, it is imperative we build our squads accordingly. Various questions and structure changes are often addressed during the international break, as it allows to judge the fitness level of players.

The forward spot has been popular and has seen a variety of players do well across different sections. The question then remains, is it time to sell Haaland? In this FPL GW12 Forwards article, we will talk about what should managers do with Haaland, and if we are to remove, which players to target.

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Link to all our FPL GW12 blogs including scout picks, wildcard guide, best midfielders, best forwards, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

Forwards Analysis Ahead of FPL GW12

The Main Man – Erling Haaland

Priced at 15.2 million, his value is always in question. We now have 11 weeks of data to help us ascertain a rough pattern. The first 5 GWs saw a blinded approach with managers falling in love with Haaland. To its juxtaposition, the following 6 GWs marked him with brutal hatred and price tag of being ‘too expensive’. In order to judge this, lets break down his season so far into two dances.

GW 1-5 Vs GW 6-11 | Comparison

	GW 1-5	GW 6-11	2023/24 Season
FPL Pts (Total)	63	19	217
Minutes Per Shot	17.2	18.6	21.2
NPxG	1.01	0.88	0.81
Pen Touches	8.26	7.33	6.86
Big Chances Scored/Total (%)	70	22	38

From the above comparison we can notice a major drop in the one category. The reason for a drop in FPL Points by more than 40 points is clearly the amount of Big Chances he has missed. In the first five weeks, he was scoring 70% of the Big Chances he was getting. While the number stands at 22% in the latter weeks.
Comparing it to previous season’s numbers yields an interesting result. It lied somewhere in the middle, closer to 22%. This number is way lesser than what he had in the first 5 GW.

A minimal change can be noted in other metrics such as Minutes per shot, NPxG and Penalty Area touches. The average is even close to previous season’s numbers.

Therefore, the data clearly tells us that Haaland has definitely not become a bad player suddenly. However, the pricing by FPL Towers has affected managers’ perspective. The question managers should ask themselves is – How many weeks in next 5 GW are they going to captain him? ; Can a combination of two players say, Salah + Cunha, yield more points than a combination Haaland + Rogers.

A Comparison with other FPL Forwards

For this section, we are going to analyse the forward section by dividing the season into two groups – (i) GW 1-5 vs (ii) GW 6-11. An inflexion point of 5 Gameweeks would help us look at some trend changes. The data in the heatmap is also adjusted for per million of the price of player. This would help us evaluate if the player has been worth their price tag.

Graph I: FPL Points per Million

[Note: Joao Pedro’s value for GW 6-11 has been taken null in order to avoid deviations risen due to his supersub masterclass in GW11]

If we look at the former GW range, it can be noted that Haaland, even at his best output, was not ranked very up high in the list of Pts/90 per Million. Players like Wood, Wissa, Jackson have all been extremely reliable in terms of their price this season.

Said that, it is also important to note that other factors like captaincy and reliability should also matter. These can’t be captured via numbers.

Another important thing to notice is the shift of points. Haaland scored the lowest score of 0.21 in the latter weeks. A rise in value provided by Delap, Isak, and Evanilson can also be observed.

Graph II: Non penalty xG/90 per Million

While in the above graph we looked at mere FPL Points. Let’s turn our heads towards the underlying numbers.

[Note: Joao Pedro’s value for GW 6-11 has been taken null in order to avoid deviations risen due to his supersub masterclass in GW11]

The NPxG/90 per million tells us that Haaland has actually been consistent across the two sets of GWs and has just been unlucky. Given his price and this season’s dynamics, even his underlying numbers were behind those of Jackson, Wissa and Watkins.

Wissa has been the best player in both the ranges. Despite missing a few weeks due to injury, he is back posting same numbers as before. Isak has also improved his underlying numbers and could be a good punt for his price tag.

Further Read: FPL GW12: Player Performance Analysis by Position & Price Point

Which one of the Budget FPL Forwards to Pick?

While we made a case for Haaland and the argument tending towards removing him, let’s take a look at his potential replacements.

Fixture Analysis

The top 6 teams tanked in the fixture ticker are shown above. A state of decision paralysis might occur considering that each of these teams provide a good option in the forward position.

• Chelsea ~ Jackson
• Arsenal ~ Kai Havertz
• Bournemouth ~ Evanilson
• Brighton ~ Joao Pedro + Welbeck
• Wolves ~ Cunha + Strand-Larsen
• Newcastle ~ Isak

Narrowing our selection to these considering the next 10 week fixture run could be a useful case in order to avoid biases. For instance, narrowing to this doesn’t mean that Chris Wood becomes a bad option, but rather a a possibility to aim for easier fixtures.

Moreover, Chelsea and Arsenal do have alternative premium options in Palmer and Saka. Bournemouth also has a good option in midfield in Semenyo. Thus, purely based on fixtures, a forward from each of Brighton, Wolves and Newcastle appears to be a safe bet.

Further Read: FPL Midfielders Watch: Top Assets to Target for Gameweek 12-15

What do the Numbers Say?

Cunha ranks highest in Minutes per Baseline BPS at 6.3, with Joao Pedro second to him (7.6). They both are Bonus Points magnet and are always in contention for a few extra points, even with an assist. Bonus Point could be a crucial aspect when considering these budget players.

Cunha ranks highest in 3 out of 4 metrics taken here. He has been dominating the category in terms of his numbers so far. His counterpart has the highest % of Shots on Target in the category as well. With Wolves still facing some good teams, they should be given a thought.

Isak records a value of 29 minutes per shot, being the highest among the group, with 71% of them being on target. Havertz, Watkins, Welbeck and Cunha have taken most of their shots off target.

Solanke also displays a unique story with a mixed role seen over the weeks. He does take a lot of touches and is involved in the build up, and has been taking some shots.

One to Watch: Watkins – Villa have really good fixtures and owing to their CL duty, managers are reluctant to jump on the forward. He has average underlyings so far, which are not too bad. If Villa shifts their focus to PL, Watkins could see some returns in the coming weeks.

Further Read: FPL GW12 Wildcard Team & Drafts to Consider | Wildcard Guide

Conclusion Ahead of FPL GW12

Selling Haaland is indeed a great deal. However, when made peace with, could reap in some points. Given the state of the game, diversifying funds could really be useful. On its flip side, Haaland face an abysmal Spurs defence and if you haven’t removed him yet and aren’t worried about Salah/Palmer, you could give him one more week, perhaps? The decision is certainly a complicated one with multiple layers to address.

That brings us to the end of the article. Whether you decide to keep or sell Haaland, May the points be with you!

Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW12

FPL GW12 Tips & Ultimate Guide: Differentials, Captaincy & More
FPL GW12: Player Performance Analysis by Position & Price Point
FPL GW12 – Best Forwards Analysis | Time to Sell Haaland?
FPL Midfielders Watch: Top Assets to Target for Gameweek 12-15
FPL GW12 Wildcard Team & Drafts to Consider | Wildcard Guide 

Link to all our FPL GW12 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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