FPL Fixture Swing Analysis – Best Fixture Runs to Target

The first international break of the 2025/26 season is a chance to take a breather and analyse the season’s macro picture. With a couple of days left before the GW4 deadline, this is the time to finalise Wildcard drafts and plan short-term transfers. This article deep-dives into each team’s desirable fixture run to help target players in strategy.

Analysing fixture runs also means weighing each team’s European schedule. A hectic midweek can introduce rotation risk. For such teams, prioritise guaranteed starters to minimise risk, or maintain a strong bench to cover unexpected absences.

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FPL Fixture Swing Analysis

Fixture Overview:

The graphic gives a quick sense of how midweek commitments stack up for Premier League teams. For instance, Manchester United’s free midweeks could provide an edge, while Palace’s European schedule could strain performance.

FPL Fixture Swing Analysis- Immediate Targets (GW4 – GW7)

Tottenham | GW4-GW7

Wildcarders this week can’t ignore Spurs’ run: West Ham (A), Brighton (A), Wolves (H), Leeds (A). This four-game stretch is followed by an out-of-form Villa and a more attack-focused Everton. They can be held until GW9.

Fixture Congestion: With Champions League football returning to Tottenham, expect rotation in wide areas and potential rests during midweek & weekend turnarounds. Players like Richarlison could see managed minutes.

Key Considerations: Richarlison is a viable option with Thomas Frank reaffirming trust in him as the preferred No. 9 for now. In defence, Pedro Porro and Micky van de Ven appeal. In midfield, Kudus and Brennan Johnson offer differential routes. Xavi Simmons is the one to keep an eye on.

Aston Villa | GW4-GW7

Many managers started with Villa assets for their GW4–7 run: Everton (H), Sunderland (A), Fulham (H), Burnley (A). Despite a disappointing start, expectations remain that they can turn it around against these easier fixtures. Late-window additions: Harvey Elliott, Jadon Sancho, Victor Lindelöf – aim to address early issues.

For Wildcarders, it’s a genuine dilemma: does form follow fixtures, or is patience required?

Fixture Congestion: Villa have packed midweeks due to Europe, but the schedule is manageable given the slightly easier fixtures and improved squad depth.

Key Considerations: Ollie Watkins is the primary threat, while Morgan Rogers is a differential. Monitor the new signings for future punts.

Liverpool | GW4-GW5 & GW13-GW19

Liverpool’s trajectory mirrors Palace’s for timing. After Burnley (A), they host the Merseyside derby in GW5, then face a rocky patch until GW13, when a seven-game run of strong fixtures begins.

Fixture Congestion: Champions League commitments intensify rotation risks, but depth should maintain performance levels through busy spells.

Key Considerations: Mohamed Salah remains the standout, but managers can consider cheaper alternatives like Gakpo for value. With Isak arriving, Ekitike will likely see reduced minutes; he should start against Burnley as the Swede hasn’t played a professional minute this season. Virgil van Dijk is the only defensive option worth holding in my opinion, given the uncertainty among full backs.

Crystal Palace | GW4-GW5 & GW10-GW17

Palace offer two value windows, with the latter providing extended opportunity. Oliver Glasner’s attacking approach creates FPL-friendly assets. They face Sunderland (H) and West Ham (A) in GW4 & GW5. If you are on Free Hitting in GW6, Buying Palace assets in GW4 make more sense.

Fixture Congestion: Thursday nights are a factor and could affect performance. However, Palace look settled and appear equipped to manage it.

Key Considerations: Jean-Philippe Mateta has penalties following Eze’s departure. Sarr’s injury could reduce creativity. Defence has been excellent – Lacroix, Muñoz, Richards, and Guéhi (now staying) offer strong value.

FPL Fixture Swing Analysis- Intermediate Targets (GW7 – GW11)

Arsenal | GW7-GW11

Arsenal’s GW7–11 swing is one of the season’s best. After navigating Nottingham Forest, Manchester City, and Newcastle, they hit their prime: West Ham (H), Burnley (A), Sunderland (A), with Fulham and Palace in between.

This five-week run is the perfect entry. Viktor Gyökeres (£9.0m) could explode. Saka’s injury timeline should be clearer soon. Eberechi Eze should also be more integrated by then after his £80m move.

Fixture Congestion: The GW7 entry follows a long international break, which always carries injury risk. Around Burnley (1 Nov) and Sunderland (8 Nov), they also travel to Prague (4 Nov) for the Champions League, a prime rotation zone.

Key Considerations: Gyökeres brings penalty threat and could challenge Saka. Monitor Saka’s return closely. Declan Rice (£6.5m) is a safe route into the attack. Defensively, Raya, Gabriel, and the full-backs (Timber, Calafiori) have impressed.

Chelsea | GW9-GW16

Chelsea started 2025/26 with two wins and a draw in three games. Their new system is bedding in with fresh additions. The GW9 run starts at home to Sunderland. Aside from Arsenal in GW4, their picks look set-and-forget across this stretch. Managers can use a Free Hit to navigate GW13 if needed.

Fixture Congestion: Champions League fixtures shouldn’t overly impact results given squad depth.

Key Considerations: João Pedro has stood out. Despite Cole Palmer’s late departure in GW2, performances have remained dominant. Caicedo has been a quiet star, topping DefCon in two games. The defence looks strong – Chalobah and Cucurella are worth serious thought. Estavio looks promising in Palmer’s absence.

Man City | GW6-GW8 & GW13 Onwards

City’s fixtures lift for three weeks – Burnley, Brentford, Everton – then mix until GW12. From GW13 to GW23, it’s a superb run. A GW13 Wildcard could maximise value.

Fixture Congestion: Pep roulette is ever-present, but early European lineups will hint at who’s most secure.

Key Considerations: Haaland has started strongly with high xG and frequent chances. Reijnders’ GW1 display raised expectations and he remains a good price pick. Marmoush is one to monitor(got injured during the international break).

West Ham | GW8-GW12

Despite a slower start, the Hammers shouldn’t be ignored. A late win over NFO restored confidence as Potter’s tweaks took shape. GW8 vs Brentford is a fair entry, with Leeds and Burnley in between.

Fixture Congestion: NA

Key Considerations: Jarrod Bowen heads their attack and has penalties. Diouf could offer value and has been popping off with assists.

Wolverhampton | GW5-GW10

Vítor Pereira’s Wolves are an underrated play in this spell. They face all three promoted sides across these six Gameweeks, with Brighton and Fulham in the middle.

Fixture Congestion: Carabao Cup ties exist but should be manageable.

Key Considerations: Strand-Larsen missed last week through injury: if fit, he’s excellent at £6.4m. Agbadou (£4.5m) offers defensive value. Hwang Hee-chan got minutes with JSL out—monitor.

Bournemouth | GW6 & GW13-GW18

Bournemouth have two strong windows separated by tougher fixtures. Their early-season form under Andoni Iraola makes them attractive for budget managers.

This spell begins with a neutral run; Leeds looks favourable. Then FUL (H), CRY (A), NFO (H) are a mixed bag. From GW12: West Ham (H), Sunderland (A), Everton (H) are targetable.

Fixture Congestion: NA

Key Considerations: Antoine Semenyo is an explosive differential and looks better than ever. Evanilson is also a great option after scoring against Spurs last week. Defence looks settled post-window – Senesi at £4.6m stands out.

FPL Fixture Swing Analysis- Latter Targets (Post GW12)

Manchester United | GW7 & GW12 Onwards

Beyond Sunderland in GW7, United’s early fixtures are tough. From GW12, they become appealing, starting with Everton (H).

Fixture Congestion: NA

Key Considerations: Bruno Fernandes remains the talisman with penalties – there’s a case to hold him through the rough patch. Mbeumo is the only other current consideration; otherwise, avoid for now.

Fulham | GW4-GW5 & GW10-GW12

Fulham have two windows. The early GW4–5 offers immediate value; GW10–12 is a second chance after a tricky stretch. The lack of a clean, extended green run makes it harder to fit them in; but they carry FH value in GW4.

Fixture Congestion: Limited European commitments reduce rotation risk, but timing around the mid-block is key.

Key Considerations: Smith Rowe had a fantastic 2024/25; Iwobi also offers potential. Muniz is exciting, while Jiménez could share minutes. Andersen is great for rotation with cheap defenders, or playable for DefCon in tougher fixtures.

Newcastle | GW15-GW19

Newcastle’s winter window includes multiple home matches at St James’ Park. Until then, last season’s stars face a tough run apart from West Ham in GW10.

Fixture Congestion: Champions League fixtures may exacerbate issues for an already stretched squad.

Key Consideration: Wissa and Woltemade offer hope after Isak’s departure. In midfield, Elanga, Gordon, Barnes, and Murphy are worth monitoring. Defenders could also be strong for DefCon.

Final Thoughts | Strategic Implementation

Early Season: Target Spurs, Villa, and Liverpool attackers for GW4–7 while monitoring Bournemouth’s form.

Mid Season: Pivot to Chelsea and Arsenal around GW7/GW9: this is also a viable Wildcard window.

Latter Part of 2nd Half: From GW13, United, Newcastle, and Man City become attractive.

International Break Risks & Midweek Rotation: Monitor injuries closely, especially for teams with heavy international duty and packed midweeks. Identify these patterns early. Build transfer strategies around optimal windows and manage congestion risks with careful selection and timing.

Thank you for reading this blog, ‘Fixture Swing Analysis 2025/26’ ahead of Gameweek 4. Happy Planning!

Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW4

FPL GW4 Free Hit Guide – Tips, Players to Target and Best Drafts
2025/26 FPL Chip Strategy Guide – First Half of the Season
FPL Fixture Swing Analysis – Best Fixture Runs to Target
FPL GW4 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
FPL GW4 Wildcard Team – Tips, Players to Target and Best Drafts

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