FPL GW1 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups

Welcome to our FPL GW1 Scout Picks blog! The start of the 25/26 FPL season is upon us, so lock in your teams, make some final adjustments and get ready for another year of FPL fun. We begin the season as victors, having beaten the Official FPL Scout 21.5-16.5 last year, and intend on keeping it that way. Indeed, we hope to better the margin of victory this time around…

Whether you are a new reader, or a Scout Picks veteran, I hope you find this series insightful and helpful throughout the season.

As always, our Scout Picks will be based on the eye test, stats, analysis and in this case also Pre-Season. Let’s first take a look at the fixtures for FPL GW1.

Link to all our 2025/26 Pre-Season articles including all team pre-season friendly updates, team previews, fixture analysis, position-wise analysis, differentials, players to target, budget enablers and more. Completely free to access as well!

FPL GW1 Fixtures

FPL GW1 Scout Picks

FPL GW1 Scout Picks – Goalkeeper

Our goalkeeper for FPL GW1 is Chelsea’s Sanchez (5.0m). The Blues are fresh off the back of winning the Club World Cup in America and will be full of confidence going into their first fixture of the new season, a home game against Crystal Palace. Palace themselves also go into this game as champions, having beaten Liverpool on penalties in the community shield only last weekend, but we’re backing Sanchez – here’s why.

Moresca’s side kept 4 clean sheets across 7 CWC matches, even managing to keep PSG from scoring in the final in mid July! In that match in particular they limited PSG to just 0.53xG across the 90 minutes. The Blues also kept 3 clean sheets in their last 5 premier league matches. Their defense definitely improved towards the back end of the season, and I see no reason for that trend not to continue into the new campaign. Moresca’s complex tactical ideas take some time to get used to, and none will benefit more from a break and a full pre-season than Chelsea’s defense.

Over the course of last season Chelsea conceded just 43 goals (3rd fewest), only 2 more than title winners Liverpool. They rank very highly for both GA and xGA, highlighting their solidity. Looking back at last season’s results, both games between the two sides finished 1-1, and it is likely that similar tactical approaches and personnel will be deployed by both managers, with some changes in attack for Chelsea. Fundamentally we’re backing Sanchez as Chelsea have a decent fixture, a very good defensive record last season and looked frankly exceptional at the CWC in July. He’s a great option for GW1 and beyond!

Further Read: 2025/26 PL Season: Predicted GW1 Lineups of All 20 PL Teams

FPL GW1 Scout Picks – Defenders

We go into GW1 with a back three of Van de Ven (4.5m), Murillo (5.5m) and Tarkowski (5.5m)…

Last season we basically targeted the promoted teams every week and hoped for the best, and it worked a treat so we’re hoping to repeat the trick this year! The promoted teams this year have a far better chance of staying up than the three last year, but they should be targeted nonetheless. Tottenham face Burnely in FPL GW1, and we’ve gone for Van de Ven as our Spurs defender of choice for that excellent fixture. Spurs will be a much improved defensive team under new manager Frank, and should be on every FPL managers radar for the start of the season with all of their defensive assets very reasonably priced!

Frank built a pragmatic, defense first team at Brentford, and he will likely attempt to repeat this at Tottenham. Furthermore, Spurs’ defense, when everyone was fit, was actually pretty decent, the issue was that the first choice back 4 were almost never all fit at the same time. With a fully fit backline (Udogie is a doubt for this game) and a more pragmatic manager, Spurs will definitely be more solid. VDV ranks pretty low for CBIT/90, but Burnely are likely to play in a low block and counter anyway, so even Romero, who ranks higher for CBIT/90, would be unlikely to score big DC points in GW1. VDV is also cheap, coming in at 4.5m and is a popular pick in light of Udogie’s injury.

Next up is Tarkowski. Everton also face a promoted team in Leeds United, but must travel to Elland Road, making the fixture marginally less appealing. Leeds are, in my opinion, the most nailed on to be relegated, as they have made no attacking signings and very few signings in general (especially compared to the other two promoted teams). Everton on the other hand had a decent back end to the season and are tipped by many to finish in the top half this year.

Tarkowski FPL — **Tarkowski Stats last season. Stats from Fantasy Football Hub. Subscribe now with a 50% discount.**

Everton conceded just 44 goals all year (5th fewest), and ranked 5th for xGA too. They kept back to back CS against Southampton and Newcastle to end their campaign. Furthremore, Tarkowski ranks very highly for CBIT, averaging 10.96 CBIT/90 last season, clear of the 10 necessary for DC points. Everton are definitely a team to target for FPL GW1!

Completing the defense is Forest’s Murillo. Another defender who ranks very highly for CBIT/90, Murillo starts the new season with a visit from Brentford in GW1. The Bees have lost Mbeumo and look set to also lose Wissa before the transfer window shuts, making their attack far less potent than it was last season. Mbeumo was involved in 27 of Brentfords 66 Premier League goals last year, and his absence will surely be felt. Without Mbeumo’s magic, they may well struggle to break down Forest’s excellent defense in FPL GW1.

Murillo, like Tarkowski, averaged 10+ CBIT/90 last season, and would have added 38 points to his already high tally had the DC points system been added at the start of last season. This, and Forest’s CS record last year, mean his price has risen to 5.5m this year, making him a mid-priced, rather than budget defender. Good CS potential, with a decent fixture at home, high CBIT/90 – what’s not to love!

Further Read: FPL Rotational Pairs & Combinations for the 2025/26 FPL Season

FPL GW1 Scout Picks – Midfielders

Our midfield quintet for GW1 consists of Ndiaye (6.5m), Salah (14.5m), Gakpo (7.5m), Palmer (10.5m) and Kudus (6.5m)…

Ndiaye is a popular GW1 pick currently sitting just under 15% ownership. The mid-priced midfielder has a favourable fixture against Leeds this weekend to kick off Everton’s new campaign. Leeds’ manager Farke is notoriously attack minded, and will often forgo defensive solidity in favour of his attacking principles, meaning that we should be targeting opposition attackers. Ndiaye is the best Everton attacking option for a number of reasons… He’s nailed, something which cannot be said for many other Everton attacking/midfield assets, and he is a premier league proven goal scorer. The Everton forward managed to score 9 goals for the Toffees last season from an xG of 7.09, averaging 0.26xG/90.

6 of those 9 goals came from January onwards under the tutelage of Moyes. Ndiaye’s underlying numbers also jumped up during this period, with the Senegalese attacker averaging 0.38xG/90 for the remainder of the season. Ndiaye is usually deployed as a winger (often on the left but occasionally on the right), and considering the tendancies of Leeds’ fullbacks to get forwards and overlap in attack, he’s certainly one to consider for FPL GW1!

Next up is the Liverpool duo of Salah and Gakpo. While there have been murmerings in the FPL community of late about Salah-less drafts and the potential super teams that can be created with all of that extra cash, going without Salah seems (to me) inadvisable. Many seem put off by his recent community shield performance, and the impact that new attacking signings will have on the system – perhaps pushing Salah out wider and therefore rendering him less of a goal threat. FPL veterans will remember similar conversations being had when Liverpool signed Nunez a couple of years back… Salah went on to score 239 points, scoring 19 and assisting 13 in 37 league games. All I’m saying is: advance with caution!

Salah’s price has made many in the community consider alternative Liverpool attacking options, the main 3 being Wirtz, Gakpo and Ekitike. Ekitike is a decent option, as his minutes are currently secure as Liverpool’s only striker, but the Reds look set to sign another striker before the window shuts, putting his minutes in peril. For now he’s a decent pick, but you’re booking a transfer in, which is never a good idea so early on in the season. Wirtz is another decent option, and is the most popular of the three, currently sat at around 35% ownership. He could prove great value in the long term, but he is unproven in the premier league, making him somewhat of a risk. Gakpo on the other hand is nailed, proven in the prem, and will be more advanced than Wirtz, making him, in my humble opinion, the best option for GW1.

But why are we targeting Liverpool assets at all? Well, their first fixture is against Bournemouth, a side who have lost 4 of their starting back 5 from last season. With Huijsen, Zabarnyi, Kerkez and Kepa all having departed in the summer, only veteran RB Smith remains from Iriola’s first choice backline from last season. Bournemouth are unlikely to play more conservatively because of this however, meaning that their backline is likely to be as exposed as ever come Friday evening. Bournemouth are a decent side, but so many changes to their defense will surely negatively impact their ability to keep clean sheets. It remains to be seen which Liverpool assets will be best long term, but for GW1 we’re backing Gakpo and Salah.

Palmer joins teammate Sanchez in the team to complete the Chelsea double up for FPL GW1. Chelsea face Palace at home, a side who conceded 2 against Liverpool in the Community shield last weekend. Palmer himself shone at the club world cup, and is the best Chelsea offensive option for GW1. He is one of the only Chelsea attacking assets that we can consider ‘nailed’, with the wingers and strikers all likely to be rotated over the course of the season. Palmer himself had a great year last year, scoring 15 and assisting 8 across 37 appearances for the Blues, but he will no doubt be looking to improve on those numbers this time around. He’s a great captaincy option for GW1 and by far the best Chelsea attacker (so long as you can afford him!).

**Cole Palmer Stats last season. Stats from Fantasy Football Hub. Subscribe now with a 50% discount.**

Finally we have Spurs forward Kudus. The Ghanaian forward joined Spurs from West Ham over the summer and has been deployed in a number of different attacking roles across pre-season. He will likely be deployed as a winger and/or striker for GW1 against Burnley, having started as a striker alongside Richarlison in the super cup final against PSG. At just 6.5m he could be great value, here’s why…

Spurs’ attack was a shining light for the club last season, with their forward line bagging 64 goals in the league. Their wingers were front and centre of that success, with Johnson, the Europa League final hero, scoring 11 in the league, and Son chipping in with 7. While the system and manager have of course changed over the Summer, Spurs still possess an excellent group of diverse attacking talent. Kudus will be a nailed start for them, and the Ghanaian will be excited by the prospect of facing newly promoted Burnley in GW1. Kudus scored 5 and assisted 3 last season, under performing his xGI of 0.38/90 in a struggling West Ham side. He’ll be keen to improve on those numbers this year, and a fixture against a newly promoted side to start the campaign is a fantastic place to start.

Further Read: Top FPL Gameweek 1 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics

FPL GW1 Scout Picks – Forwards

A front two of Watkins (9.0m) and Bowen (8.0m) completes our FPL GW1 scout picks team!

Aston Villa’s Ollie Watkins kicks off the new season with a game against Newcastle United at home. Watkins has shone so far in pre-season, scoring 5 and assisting 1 across Villa’s ‘warm-up’ fixtures. He also had his second most prolific season in the Prem last year, scoring 16 and assisting 8 across 31 starts. Villa have a fairly decent run of games to start the season, and will be looking to start this campaign how they ended the last one (with lots of wins!).

Watkins averaged 0.68xG/90 for Villa and under performed his season wide xG by just over 2. He’s a good player and Villa create a lot of chances for their forwards. Newcastle on the other hand are struggling. Not so much on the pitch but off it, having missed out on all of their key transfer targets so far this summer. When there is chaos off the pitch there is often chaos on it as well, and the failings of the club hierarchy will slowly start to affect the players no doubt. With players unsettled and reinforcements needed, Newcastle may well struggle at the start of the season, and Villa look poised to take advantage!

Finally we have Bowen. Having had his FPL position changed from midfielder to forward over the summer he remains a decent FPL pick. West Ham face Sunderland in GW1, the only promoted side that have any real chance of staying up (just my opinion). The Black Cats will struggle in this league nonetheless. We saw last season the gap between the promoted sides and the bottom half of the prem, with West Ham losing just 1 game (1/6) against the promoted sides last year.

Bowen scored 13 and assisted 8 for the Hammers last season, the second best goal return of his career. The london club made slow and steady progress under Potter towards the end of the season, picking up much needed wins against Ipswich and Manchester United in the final few weeks. Bowen’s position on the pitch may shift from game to game, as Potter likes to change formation frequently according to the opponent, but he will doubtless be creator-and-scorer-in-chief once again.

⚒️🔥Jarrod Bowen- This is how he ended the season!

GW38: ⚽🅰️, 13 points
GW37: ⚽, 8 points
GW36: ⚽, 8 points
GW35: ⚽, 9 points
GW34: 🅰️🅰️, 10 points
GW33: ⚽, 9 points

Further Read: Top FPL GW1 Differential Picks to Target Ahead of GW1 Deadline

Full FPL GW1 Scout Picks Team:

Note: The bench would comprise of a 4.0 GK, 4.5 DEF, 4.0 DEF and 4.5 FWD.

Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW1 of the 2025/26 FPL Season

If you’re new to FPL, here is a link to all our FPL Beginners Guide including FPL Beginner’s Guide- How to play?, Bench boost, Team value, Triple captain, Effective ownership, Price Changes, Free Hit, Bonus Points, and more.

Link to all our 2025/26 Pre-Season articles including all position-wise analysis, team previews, fixture analysis, position-wise analysis, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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Dylan

Currently studying Modern Foreign Languages at University. Liverpool/Sheffield Wednesday Fan. Interested in translation, journalism, football and data analysis.

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FPL GW1 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups

FPL GW1 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups

FPL GW1 Fixtures