Hello FPL managers! Welcome to our FPL Midfielders Watch. In this article, we’ll dive into the underlying stats of top FPL midfield maestros/innate dribblers who are likely to explode into form within the next four Gameweeks.
Link to all our FPL GW30 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, best forwards, and more. Completely free to access as well!
Our scope for this post is from FPL Gameweeks 30-33; we’ll be analyzing data from recent matches and sharing insights on the players likely to deliver big FPL points in future Double Gameweeks ahead. Let’s get into it!
Note: We have left out very obvious midfielders like Mohamed Salah and Cole Palmer in this blog as they are obvious picks, and our focus is on lesser-owned FPL midfielders who could be promising differentials.
Article written by @TheFPLManual. Do give him a follow on Twitter for all things FPL and UCL Fantasy.
Top FPL Midfielders To Consider from Gameweeks 30-33
Just to establish a few metrics used for this piece, we will be measuring FPL assets with the best fixtures against form, non-expected penalty goals/expected assists, and shots on target, along with necessary data from FFHUB(Subscribe with 30% off).
With the conclusion of the 2024/25 Emirates FA Cup Quarter-Finals, we now have a clear vision on what is to unfold for the Double Gameweeks ahead. According to our FFHub fixture analyzer, here are the top teams with the easiest attacking fixtures between Gameweeks 30-33.
Crystal Palace leads the log this time, potentially due to upcoming back-to-back double gameweeks in Matchdays 32 and 33. Aston Villa is not far behind in sixth position, with relatively easy matchups on paper.
We’ll build our midfield watchlist on hot prospects who are set to shine among these teams.
Ismaila Sarr (£5.7m) – Crystal Palace (TSB, 5.7% ownership)
Despite the absence of top scorer Jean Phillipe-Mateta, Senegalese international Ismaïla Sarr has performed well in recent weeks. With his FA Cup Quarter-Final strike against Fulham, the 27-year-old now has three goals in his last three appearances across all competitions.
The Eagles are placed top in terms of advantageous schedules between Gameweeks 30 and 33, which means Ismaila Sarr and his colleagues will play at least six games before a blank Gameweek 34.
According to our FFHub estimates, Ismaïla Sarr is expected to rack up 25.1 points during Gameweek 30-33(3rd Highest among all Mids and only behind Salah and Palmer). Sarr is likely to be an excellent bargain in your fantasy team, with an ultimate differential ready to match up against top premium midfield assets.
Further Read: FPL GW30 Wildcard Team- Tips, Players to Target and Best Drafts
Marco Asensio (£6.1m) – Aston Villa (TSB, 2.3% ownership)
Aston Villa’s winter loan addition, Marco Asensio, has been effective for Aston Villa since joining in January. The 21-year-old Spaniard has scored seven goals across all competitions, with the majority of these goals scored in the Champions League and FA Cup.
Let’s dive into Asensio’s underlying numbers. In only 205 minutes played in the league, Asensio has:
- Contributed 0.62 expected goals in his last four matches.
- 7 shot attempts resulting in 2 goals scored
- 4 chances created and a 75% successful dribble rate.
The data sample to pool from is quite small; this is largely due to the fact Marco Asensio has only had two starts in the league and is subject to rotations. However, an upside we should not overlook is Asensio is set to be the main penalty taker even ahead of top striker Ollie Watkins.
According to our FFHub estimates, Marco Asensio is projected to score an estimate of 19.1 points within Gameweek 30-33, which is third for predicted points among Aston Villa FPL Midfielders.
Should the Spaniard make his break as a mainstay in Unai Emery’s team, it will be a huge boost for those who bet on him early.
Further Read: Top FPL GW30 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
Jeremy Doku (£6.2m) – Man City (TSB, 1.5% ownership)
Doku, the man born to dribble, makes the list of top differentials keen to secure a breakthrough soon. Unlike Asensio above, whose minutes are risky, Jeremy Doku seems to have secured his spot in Pep’s side, as he has started four of his last five games for Man City.
We can’t suggest ‘the Belgian flash’ without looking at some underlying stats in recent matches.
A few disappointing quirks in Doku’s last five games is shooting. The 22-year-old has a 63% successful dribble completion rate but could make an attempt of six shots in total in 374 minutes played.
Doku’s heatmap shows he is getting into the right area and consistently making it difficult for the opposition’s defense; however, there has been no output to back his movement.
Does this make him a bad pick? No. He is too keen to shine soon. As with the recent absence of Haaland and Foden’s recent dip in form, Doku’s minutes will be much more guaranteed, and it’s only a matter of time before he contributes for the Cityzens. According to our FFHub estimates, Doku is projected to score an estimate of 22.0 points within Gameweek 30-33.
With Man City set to take on Leicester and Man United in their next two, which have very vulnerable weak defenses, and a possible Double Gameweek 33 announcement on the way. I anticipate Doku could hit those projections soon.
Further Read: FPL GW30 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
Mikel Merino (£6m) – Arsenal (TSB, 0.9% ownership)
Arsenal’s new makeshift forward, Mikel Merino, has been adjusting to his new position as he leads the front line. With a Double Gameweek poised in Gameweek 33 and the return of Arsenal’s talisman, Bukayo Saka. Things are looking good for Merino owners as his minutes are guaranteed, and he stands to be a goal threat from set pieces.
And that wraps up our article! Hopefully, these insights assist fantasy managers in making those key decisions that keep you at the top of your mini-leagues. We’ll be back with more forward-planning tips by Blank Gameweek 34. Good luck, managers!
Further reads from AllAboutFPL ahead of FPL GW30:
FPL GW30 Wildcard Team- Tips, Players to Target and Best Drafts
Top FPL GW30 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
FPL GW30 Tips – Best Forwards, Mids, Fixture Analysis & More
Top FPL Gameweek 30 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
2024/25 Ultimate Chip Strategy Guide- Best Windows to play all Chips & Combinations
Impact of FA Cup on FPL Blank Gameweek 34 | FPL BGW34
FPL Gameweek 30 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
FanTeam PL Final Sprint Mini Season Game Ultimate Guide
FanTeam PL Final Sprint Mini Season Game Drafts with Keynotes
Premier League GW30 Predictions and Prizes- Sleeper Pick’em
FPL GW30 Tips & Ultimate Guide: Differentials, Captaincy & More
Upcoming FPL Double/Blank Gameweeks | 24/25 FPL Season
Link to all our FPL GW30 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!
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FPL Manual (Wale)
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