Welcome to the FPL Gameweek 27 Captain Picks & Metrics blog. After a high-scoring GW26, we move onto GW27 quickly as it’s a midweek deadline. The popular captaincy options for FPL Gameweek 27 include Salah, Palmer, Mbeumo, Wood and Cunha.
This season the metrics has a 19/26 return record. Last season the metrics finished with 560 points(26/38 returns). The metrics had a 31/37 “returns record” in the 22/23 season and a 30/38 “returns record” in the 21/22 season. Do follow the man behind the metrics @AK_FPL1(Do follow him on Twitter)
Total metrics points: 10 + 34 + 34 + 26 + 12 + 4 + 4 + 4 + 12 + 4 + 4 + 26 + 26 + 10 + 36 + 6 + 42 + 18 + 32 + 14 + 32 + 6 + 16 + 58 + 40 + 28 = 538 pts
Note: “Returns” ~ Player topping the metrics getting points returns and not necessarily the highest scoring option of the week.
Link to all our FPL GW27 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, best forwards, and more. Completely free to access as well!
FPL GW27 Captaincy Metrics
FPL GW27 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd
Salah is on top of the captaincy poll for GW27 with 49% of the votes and will be up against Newcastle United at home. The Reds won 2-0 vs Man City and Newcastle won 4-3 vs Nottingham Forest in GW26.
Salah continued his stellar season and has already scored a whopping 285 pts with 11 more games left, he’s currently only 19 points away from beating his own record for the most points in an FPL season.
Palmer who has only one assist in the last four games is second in the captaincy poll ahead of a juicy home game against Southampton(H).
The top five is completed by Mbeumo against Everton(H), Cunha vs Fulham(H), and Wood vs Arsenal(A)
Further Read: Top FPL GW27 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 27 Captain picks
Chris Wood comes out on top for underlying numbers with an xG of 3.32 and 9 Shots inside the Box from the last 6 games. He also had 5 big chances in the PL over the last six games.
Salah is close behind Wood in the 2nd place with an xG of 2.93 and has had five big chances in the last six games. He has also created 10 chances in the last six games.
Cunha is 3rd with an xG of 2.29 in the last six games with 2 big chances, 10 chances created and 13 goal attempts in the box.
Mbeumo takes the fourth spot in the underlying numbers table with 2.24 xG in the last six games. He has created 13 chances and has had 15 goal attempts in the box during the period, both highest amongst the five players in the captaincy metrics this week.
Palmer is only 5th with an xG of 1.82, he’s had 2 big chances, 9 shots in the box, and created 11 chances.
Further Read: Top FPL GW27 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
Underlying Numbers of the Candidate’s Teams
Chelsea top the Team Underlying Data with 12.01 xG over the last 6 matches which is the highest amongst the five teams. The Blues have also had 68 shots inside the box and 18 big chances during the period.
Liverpool are second with 10.00 xG over the last six games, the Reds have also had 54 goal attempts in the box and 15 big chances.
Bournemouth rank 3rd for xG amongst the five teams registering 9.79 xG in the six games. They have also had a healthy 67 shots inside the box and 14 big chances.
Nottingham Forest are 4th with an xG of 9.36 & they have had 14 big chances & 49 shots inside the box in the last six games.
Wolves are last on the table with an xG of 8.30, 38 shots inside the box &15 big chances.
Further Read: Upcoming FPL Double/Blank Gameweeks | 24/25 FPL Season
Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW27
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.
We will use DraftHound’s odds for a Team scoring at least one goal in the Gameweek and the Odds of Scoring more than 2.0 goals in the Gameweek as a whole.
Chelsea have a whopping 89% odds of at least 1 goal and 60% odds of scoring 2+ goals in FPL GW27 vs Southampton(H)
Liverpool are second with 83% odds of at least 1 goal and 45% odds of scoring 2+ goals against Newcastle United(H)
Brentford are 3rd with 71% odds of at least 1 goal and 23% odds of scoring 2+ goals against Everton(H)
Wolves are 4th with 59% odds of at least 1 goal and 17% odds of scoring 2+ goals in FPL GW27 vs Fulham(H)
Nottingham Forest are 5th and have a 47% odds of at least 1 goal and 9% odds of scoring 2+ goals against Arsenal(H) in GW27.
Further Read: Top FPL GW27 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 27 Captain Picks
In the Fourth Phase of the article, I have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.
Palmer is first for projections this week with 73% anytime returns & a 8.5 points projection in FPL GW27 vs Southampton(H)
Salah is second this week with 69% anytime returns & a 7.9 points projection in FPL GW27 against Newcastle United(H).
Mbeumo meanwhile is 3rd and has a 52% anytime returns & a 5.9 points projection in GW27 against Everton(H)
Cunha is 4th and has a 51% anytime returns & a 5.7 points projection in FPL GW27 against Fulham(H)
Wood is last with a 41% anytime return & a 5.0 points projection in GW27 vs Arsenal(H)
Further Read: 2024/25 FPL Chip Strategy Guide – Best Windows and Analysis
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 27 Captaincy metrics
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). According to our captaincy metrics, the candidate with the lowest cumulative rank factor is the ideal captaincy option.
Salah and Palmer are joint top of the captaincy metrics for FPL GW27 with a CRF of 8. Mbeumo is 3rd with a CRF of 13. Wood is 4th with a CRF of 15 & Cunha is 5th with a CRF of 16.
Further reads from AllAboutFPL ahead of FPL GW27:
2024/25 Ultimate Chip Strategy Guide- Best Windows to play all Chips & Combinations
Top FPL GW27 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
FPL Gameweek 27 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
FPL GW27 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
Top FPL Gameweek 27 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
Upcoming FPL Double/Blank Gameweeks | 24/25 FPL Season
FPL GW27 Tips & Ultimate Guide: Differentials, Captaincy & More
Link to all our FPL GW27 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!
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AK - Anurag Khetan
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