Welcome to the FPL Gameweek 21 Captain Picks & Metrics blog. Salah, who topped our captaincy metrics last week, returned with 14 points vs Man United. This week, there are strong captaincy candidates with good fixtures, including Isak, Palmer, Salah, Bruno Fernandes, and Haaland, which makes captaincy interesting. Let’s see who tops the captaincy metrics for FPL GW21.
This season the metrics has a 14/20 return record. Last season the metrics finished with 560 points(26/38 returns). The metrics had a 31/37 “returns record” in the 22/23 season and a 30/38 “returns record” in the 21/22 season. Do follow the man behind the metrics @AK_FPL1(Do follow him on Twitter)
Total metrics points: 10 + 34 + 34 + 26 + 12 + 4 + 4 + 4 + 12 + 4 + 4 + 26 + 26 + 10 + 36 + 6 + 42 + 18 + 32 + 14 = 358 pts
Note: “Returns” ~ Player topping the metrics getting points returns and not necessarily the highest scoring option of the week.
Link to all our FPL GW21 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, best forwards, and more. Completely free to access as well!
FPL GW21 Captaincy Metrics
FPL GW21 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd
Isak is on top of the captaincy poll for GW21 with a whopping 45% of the votes and will be up against Wolves at St James Park. Isak is in red-hot form with nine goals and two assists in the last seven games. King Mo who has blanked only twice so far this season and has registered 12 double-digit hauls already is 2nd in the captaincy poll against Nottingham Forest(A). Palmer is 3rd in the captaincy poll and will be up against Bournemouth(H).
Bruno Fernandes makes a return to the top five of the captaincy poll after a while thanks to his juicy fixture against Southampton who have been really poor this season. The Red Devils will be high on confidence after winning their FA Cup 3rd round game against Arsenal at the Emirates Stadium. Haaland completes the top five of the captaincy poll for GW21.
Further Read: FPL GW21 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 21 Captain picks
Salah comes out on top for underlying numbers with an xG of 6.69 and 30 Shots inside the Box from the last 6 games.
Isak is really close behind Salah in the 2nd place with an xG of 6.61 and is also top for big chances(11) amongst all players in the Premier League for the last six games.
Haaland is only 3rd with an xG of 3.58 in the last six games. Man City’s poor form is seen in Haaland’s number who consistently used to have an xG of close to 0.8-1.0 per game.
Palmer takes the fourth spot in the underlying numbers table with 2.65 xG in the last six games. He’s also created an impressive 21 chances over the previous six games which is the highest amongst all players.
Bruno is only 5th with an xG of 2.07, he’s had three big chances & created 16 chances in the last six games.
Further Read: FPL Midfielders Watch: Top Assets to Target for Gameweeks 21-24
Underlying Numbers of the Candidate’s Teams
Liverpool top the Team Underlying Data with 17.63 xG over the last 6 matches which is the highest amongst all teams by a huge margin. The Reds have also had 94 shots inside the box and 32 big chances during the period.
Newcastle rank 2nd for xG amongst the five teams with the Geordies registering 14.80 xG in the six games. They have also had a healthy 77 shots inside the box and 25 big chances.
Chelsea are 3rd in the table with an xG of 10.60, the Blues are second for shots inside the box(69) & big chances(19).
Man City are 4th with an xG of only 8.70 & they have had 14 big chances & only 52 shots inside the box in the last six games.
Man United rank fifth for Expected Goals in the last six games with 8.35 xG, 15 Big Chances, and 53 Shots inside the box.
Further Read: FPL Gameweek 21 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW21
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.
We will use DraftHound’s odds for a Team scoring at least one goal in the Gameweek and the Odds of Scoring more than 2.0 goals in the Gameweek as a whole.
Three teams are on top of the fixture difficulty table this week as the odds are all very close!
Man City have a whopping 89% odds of at least 1 goal and 42% odds of scoring 2+ goals in FPL GW21 vs Brentford(A)
Man United have 88% odds of at least 1 goal and 44% odds of scoring 2+ goals in FPL GW21 vs Southampton(H)
Newcastle United have 87% odds of at least 1 goal and 50% odds of scoring 2+ goals in FPL GW21 vs Wolves(H)
Chelsea are 4th and have an 81% odds of at least 1 goal and 42% odds of scoring 2+ goals against Bournemouth(H) in GW21.
Liverpool are last with 85% odds of at least 1 goal and 36% odds of scoring 2+ goals against Forest(A)
Further Read: Top FPL GW21 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 21 Captain Picks
In the Fourth Phase of the article, I have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.
Palmer is top for projections this week with 68% anytime returns & a 7.6 points projection in FPL GW21 vs Bournemouth(H)
Salah, and Isak are all tied 2nd for projection this week with Isak having 69% anytime returns & a 5.7 points projection in FPL GW21 against Wolves(H).
Salah has a 66% anytime returns & a 7.5 points projection in FPL GW21 against Nottingham Forest(A).
Note: Isak is top for anytime returns projections but has only a points projection of 5.7 because FFHUB projects his xMins to be only 64 minutes following his yellow flag. He was fully rested from the FA Cup game so he should be fine!
Haaland is 4th and has a 63% anytime returns & a 6.7 points projection in FPL GW21 against Brentford(A).
Isak is last with a 53% anytime return & a 5.7 points projection in GW21 vs Southampton(H)
Further Read: Ultimate FPL Assistant Manager Chip Guide: Rules, Tips & More
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 21 Captaincy metrics
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). According to our captaincy metrics, the candidate with the lowest cumulative rank factor is the ideal captaincy option.
Isak tops the captaincy metrics with a CRF of seven, Salah is closely second with a CRF of 9. Haaland takes the 3rd spot with a CRF of 10, Only a CRF of 4 separates the top three. Palmer is 4th with a CRF of 12, and Bruno is last in the captaincy metrics for GW21 with a CRF of 14.
Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW21:
FPL Gameweek 21 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
Ultimate FPL Assistant Manager Chip Guide: Rules, Tips & More
FPL GW21 Tips & Ultimate Guide: Differentials, Captaincy & More
Top FPL Gameweek 21 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
India’s FPL No. 1 Jayanth Reflects on his Stellar 24/25 FPL Season
Upcoming FPL Double/Blank Gameweeks | 24/25 FPL Season
FPL GW21 Tips- Transfer Planning, Mbeumo and Munoz Thoughts
Matchday 21 Predictions and Prizes- Sleeper Pick’em League
Link to all our FPL GW21 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!
Thanks for reading the “FPL Gameweek 21 Captain Picks and Metrics” blog. Keep checking allaboutfpl.com for regular blogs. Also, follow our 150,000+ community on Instagram, Facebook, and Twitter to stay updated on regular Posts and FPL updates.
What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 21 of the 2024/25 FPL Season?
We’ll be covering differential picks, transfer targets, Buy, Hold, Sell analysis, Scout picks, Gameweek preview, Captaincy metrics, FPL GW21 tips, and more. Keep checking allaboutfpl.com for all our blogs. We’ll also be posting regularly about the same on our social media accounts so follow us on Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook and keep our notification ON.
AK - Anurag Khetan
Latest posts by AK - Anurag Khetan (see all)
- Top FPL Gameweek 21 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics - January 13, 2025
- Top FPL Gameweek 20 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics - January 3, 2025
- Top FPL Gameweek 19 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics - December 28, 2024
