Top FPL GW16 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline

Looking to break away from the template with lower-owned punts and catch up ranks in your mini-leagues? Don’t worry we have got you covered with some spicy punts. In this article, we will be highlighting the Top FPL GW16 Differential Picks(<10% TSB) and Ultra-Differential Pick(<1% TSB) ahead of GW16 deadline based on Stats and upcoming fixtures.

Link to all our FPL GW16 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

Top FPL GW16 Differential Picks(<10% TSB)

Jarrod Bowen vs Bournemouth(A), £7.4m, TSB: 6.8%

It’s not a surprise to see Bowen on this list after his 12-point haul vs Wolves in GW15, but is a surprise to see Bowen at just 6.8% ownership. With Antonio ruled out, he is once again expected to play as a striker in the upcoming weeks. Bowen has got 2 returns from the last 2 games, but he should have easily had more with 1.9 xGI, 7 Shots, and 8 Chances created. It’s not just the last 2 weeks, Bowen has been consistent as he has always been.

Jarod Bowen Stats since GW7:

• Matches– 9
• Shots– 27 (3rd among Midfielders)
• Shots inside the Box– 17
• Big Chances– 5
• xG– 2.38
• Chances Created– 21
• Big Chances Created– 5
• xA– 2.83
• Goal Involvements– 6(3 goals and 3 assists)

Bowen is only behind Salah and Palmer for xGI among Midfielders since GW7.

Top Midfielders(Less than 11.0 Million) for xGI since GW7:

Bowen is also possibly on Penalties if Paqueta is not on the pitch. Note that Paqueta has not started the last 2 league games. With the next 2 fixtures after this for Bowen vs Brighton(H), and Southampton(A)– Expect Bowen to come good in the next 3 Gameweeks.

Further Read: FPL Gameweek 16 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell

Daniel Muñoz vs Brighton(A), £4.7m, TSB: 2.5%

Daniel Munoz’s numbers for a £4.7m Defender are just too good in recent weeks. He has 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 6 games. During this run, he has had 10 Shots(All from inside the box), 5 Big Chances, 2.27 xG. In fact, he comfortably Tops all the attacking metrics among Defenders over the Last 6 GWs. There has been only one clean sheet during this time, but with better form and fixtures expect more clean sheets from Palace in the upcoming weeks.

Daniel Munoz Attack Rank Among Defenders over the last 6 matches:

• Shots- 1st
• Shots on Target- 1st
• Shots inside the Box- 1st
• Big Chances- 1st
• xG- 1st
• Goal Involvements- Joint 1st

Top Defenders for xG over the Last 6 Gameweeks:

Even though the entry point does not look great for Munoz in terms of clean sheet vs Brighton, he is still capable of getting attacking returns. If you can bench him in GW17 vs Arsenal, the fixtures after that are just brilliant.

Further Read: FPL GW16 Tips – Palmer, Mbeumo, Watkins Dilemmas and More

Enzo Fernández vs Brentford(H), £5.0m, TSB: 5.3%

You might be wondering why you’re seeing Enzo in the differentials blog this week.

He scored only 11 points in the first 10 games but his form has improved over the last five games & he has picked up 3 goals & 3 assists during the period. He has also played 90 minutes in each of the last four PL games.

• ⚽️3 goals
• 🅰️3 assists
• 🎯37 points – 5th highest amongst mids
• 🔥xA – 1.49 – 3rd highest amongst mids
• 🔑11 chances created
• 🔑4 big chances created – 3rd highest amongst all players

Brentford meanwhile have conceded 28 goals in the PL so far this season which is the 4th most in the league. In away games the Bees have conceded 14.28 xGC in just seven away games which is also the 4th most in the league so far this season. The fixtures are better up until GW24 which makes Enzo a great budget option to consider this week.

Further Read: FPL GW16 Tips & Ultimate Guide: Differentials, Captaincy & More

Dominic Solanke vs Southampton(A), £7.5m, TSB: 8.7%

Solanke is an easy pick in this week’s differentials blog. The Spurs forward picked up a goal in the 3-4 defeat to Chelsea in GW15 & will be against struggling Southampton in GW16.

Solanke had 2 big chances & an xG of 0.94 vs Chelsea, he also created 2 chances & a big chance as well against the Blues.

Saints have conceded the most big chances(64), most expected goals against(xGC- 34.65) & the 2nd most goals conceded(31) in the league so far

In terms of big chances matchup, Spurs have the 4th most big chances in the league so far this season(54), whereas Southampton have conceded the most big chances amongst all teams(64).

Evanilson vs West Ham(H), £6.1m, TSB: 4.6%

Bournemouth as an attacking unit have been fantastic this season- Ranking 2nd Best for xG, Joint 4th for Big Chances, 2nd for Shots inside the Box and 9th for Goals scored. They average 1.96 xG/game and score 1.53 Goals/game. Evanilson starting has a Forward so far has 4 Goals, 4 FPL Assists from 13 Appearances. Over the last 6 matches, Evanilson is only behind Watkins and Haaland for Expected Goal Involvements among Forwards. It is to be noted that he has won 3 penalties during this time which does not add up to the xA and xGI numbers as well.

Evanilson Rank Among Forwards since GW10:

• Shots on Target- 2nd
• Shots inside the box- 3rd
• Big Chances- 4th
• xG- 3rd
• xGI- 3rd
• Goal Involvements- Joint 3rd
• FPL Points- 4th

Bournemouth faces a West Ham side who are leaky in defense in FPL GW16. Evanilson and company will fancy his chances against a West Ham side who are ranked 19th for Goals Conceded, 15th for xGC and Big Chances Conceded over the last 8 Gameweeks.

Further Read: FPL GW16 Tips – Palmer, Mbeumo, Watkins Dilemmas and More

FPL GW16 Ultra Differential Pick (Under 1 % Ownership)

Ismaïla Sarr vs Brighton(A), £5.7m, TSB: 0.3%

Ismaila Sarr is surely been overlooked as one of the Budget enablers in the game considering the performances he has been putting in. Over the last 6 matches, Sarr has managed to get 1 goal, 1 assist but his underlying numbers have been really good with 11 Shots(All 11 Shots from inside the box), 7 Big Chance Involvements(4 Big Chances, 3 Big Chances created), 1.68 xG, 1.48 xA.

Top Midfielders for Expected Goal Involvement since GW10:

Players	Expected Goal Involvement
Mo Salah	6.5
Cole Palmer	6.4
Justin Kluivert	3.7
Heung Min Son	3.4
Ismaila Sarr	3.2

As you can see, Sarr is among the Top 5 Midfielders for xGI since GW10 up among with the Premiums like Salah, Palmer, and Son. It is to be noted that in the above table, Kluivert has taken 3 penalties while Palmer and Salah have taken 2 penalties during this time which improves their xGI data. Sarr even with no penalties is up there in this list which is commendable for his £5.7m price.

Brighton are also ranked 15th for Big Chances Conceded, 12th for xGC, 15th for Goals conceded– Making FPL GW16 a good entry point for Sarr.

If you can afford to bench him for the GW17 fixture vs Arsenal, There is not many reasons why should not try out this punt with a good fixture this week and excellent fixtures from GW18 onwards.

Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW16:

FPL Gameweek 16 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
FPL GW16 Tips – Palmer, Mbeumo, Watkins Dilemmas and More
FPL GW16 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
Top FPL Gameweek 16 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
Top FPL GW16 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
FPL GW16 Tips & Ultimate Guide: Differentials, Captaincy & More

Thanks for reading the “FPL GW16 Differential Picks” blog. Keep checking allaboutfpl.com for regular blogs. Also, follow our 200,000+ community on Instagram, Facebook, and Twitter to stay updated on regular Posts and FPL updates.

What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 16 of the 2024/25 FPL Season?

We’ll be covering differential picks, transfer targets, Buy, Hold, Sell analysis, Scout picks, Gameweek preview, Captaincy metrics, FPL GW16 tips, and more. Keep checking allaboutfpl.com for all our blogs. We’ll also be posting regularly about the same on our social media accounts so follow us on Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook and keep our notification ON.