Top FPL GW15 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline

The Differential Article continued with some Big Scores where 1 of our 6 picks returned with FPL Points.

• Eberechi Eze – 1 Assist – 6 Points
• Noni Madueke – 1 Goal, 1 Assist, 1 Bonus – 11 Points

That makes it 37/84 Picks who have returned FPL Points from our picks this Season. In this article, we will be highlighting 5 Players who are less than 10% Owned and 1 Ultra Differential (less than 1% Owned) for all of you as of Friday 6th December, 2024. There are many more whom you guys can consider if you decide to not go with the 6 players mentioned below.

Link to all our FPL GW15 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

Top FPL GW15 Differential Picks(<10% TSB)

Antoine Semenyo – Bournemouth – £5.7 Midfielder – 5.7% TSB

• Bournemouth’s Shot Merchant is back after suspension and will go against an Ipswich team who rank 2^nd worst for Shots, xGC and Big Chances in the League. Semenyo is predicted to score 4.9 points according to the Hub AI.
• Semenyo ranks 2^nd for Shots among all players in the League and 4^th for Shots in the Box. He has had 52 Shots, 37 Shots in the Box, 12 Shots on Target and 6 Big Chances so far. His creativity stats are decent too with 4 Big Chances created and playing a part in 14 Key passes.

Top Midfielders(<£ 6.5) for Expected Goal Involvement:

Further Read: FPL GW15 Scout Selection- Top Picks Based on Stats and Matchups

Anthony Gordon – Newcastle – £7.2 Midfielder – 8.0 % TSB

• Newcastle have a brilliant 3 Fixture run against defensively weak teams such as Brentford, Leicester and Ipswich. These 3 teams rank in the Bottom 5 for Shots and Shots on Target, Bottom 6 for Shots in the Box, Goals conceded and xGC. Such an appealing fixture run makes Gordon a key Differential along with the more popular Isak to move you up the ranks.

Newcastle’s next 3 Opponents	xGC Rank	Goals Conceded Rank	Big Chances Conceded Rank
GW15 vs Brentford(A)	15th	16th	8th
GW16 vs Leicester (H)	18th	18th	18th
GW17 vs Ipswich(A)	19th	15th	19th

• Gordon has been underperforming this season after a great season last time. Gordon has only 3 Goals so far from an xG of almost 4 (4.89 to be exact). He has had 23 Shots, 18 Shots in the Box, 10 Shots on Target and 8 Big Chances.

Further Read: FPL GW15 Tips – Isak, Johnson Dilemmas, and Fixtures to Target

Mohammed Kudus – West Ham- £6.2 Midfielder – 2.3 % TSB

• The Winger looks set to continue his form which he had before his suspension when he scored in consecutive matches. He was unlucky to not get any attacking returns against Leicester where he had 3 Shots, created 4 chances and 0.55 xGI.
• Wolves have conceded the most Goals in the League so far (36) and have conceded 8 in the last 2 Games. Wolves also rank in the Bottom 4 for xGC, Big Chances and Shots on Target. This game could decide the fate of Lopetegui so expect West Ham to go for it from the very beginning.
• Kudus has had 12 Shots on Target, 22 Shots in the Box and has been involved in 5 Big Chances. Those are pretty good numbers for someone who has missed a lot of games due to suspension. Across the last 4 Matches that Kudus has played, he sits top for Shots across all midfielders.
• West Ham are easily a better attacking side with Kudus in there. West Ham had an impressive 3.09 xG vs Leicester City and was unlucky just to score only one goal. Even before GW14, West Ham’s numbers were better with Kudus in there.

West Ham with Kudus(GW1 to GW8) vs West Ham without Kudus(GW9 to GW13)- Per 90 stats:

• xG– 1.37 vs 1.30
• Big Chances– 2.38 vs 1.60
• Shots– 15.12 vs 10.80
• Goals– 1.38 vs 1.20

West Ham will be up against a Wolves who are arguably the worst defensive side in the league having conceded 4 goals to Everton over the weekend.

Further Read: Top FPL Gameweek 15 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics

Marcus Rashford – Manchester United – £7.0 Midfielder – 5.2 % TSB

• Rashford has slowly but surely started coming back into form since Amorim has taken charge of United. He has 3 Goals in the 2 Games he has started under Amorim. After being benched against Arsenal, Rashford should start against Forest at home. Forest have also conceded 6 Goals in the last 3 games. They are also in the Bottom 6 for Shots and Shots on Target in the last 3 Games.
• Rashford has become a clinical player this season with 4 Goals from an xG of 1.57, 4 Big Chances, 9 Shots on Target and 10 Shots in the Box. We all know what a confident Rashford can do against any team. He could be a much cheaper route, if you cannot buy Bruno. Rashford also will play higher up the pitch compared to Bruno under Amorim.

Further Read: FPL GW15 Scout Selection- Top Picks Based on Stats and Matchups

 Milos Kerkez – Bournemouth – £4.5 Defender – 3.1 % TSB

• Bournemouth have a very favorable fixture run from Gameweek 15-20. They have also been very unlucky in terms of Defensive returns this season. Their xGC of 16.26 is the 5^th best in the League but they have only kept 2 Clean sheets so far. That number should start to rise in the next few weeks.
• Kerkez has also started contributing at the other end of the pitch, having supplied 2 Assists and a Goal since Gameweek 10. Since Gameweek 8, only 2 defenders can better Kerkez’s tally of 3 Big Chances created.
• Kerkez also got 2 Bonus Points when they kept a Clean sheet against Bournemouth and that is because of his Chance created numbers. He has played 14 Key passes so far this season. At his cost of 4.5, Kerkez could be the next Budget Gem.

Further Read: FPL GW15 Tips – Isak, Johnson Dilemmas, and Fixtures to Target

FPL GW15 Ultra Differential Pick (Under 1 % Ownership)

Stefan Ortega – Manchester City – £5.2 Goalkeeper – 0.5 % TSB

• Ortega has now started City’s last 2 Games and City kept their 1^st Clean Sheet since Gameweek 9. Since the end of last season, Ortega has slowly started challenging Ederson as City’s Number 1 Goalkeeper and possibly replaced him as the new Number 1 for now, amid growing concerns of Ederson’s Shot stopping capability (sorry Man City fans, Ederson may be a great passer of the ball, but he is an average Shot-stopper).
• Manchester City actually have conceded the Least amount of Shots in the League, 2^nd least amount of Shots in the Box and 3^rd least amount of Shots on Target. City however have conceded a lot of Big Chances and that is where you need a Great Goalkeeper to stop the Goal going in.
• Manchester City will now embark om a Great 8 fixture run where they will only face Aston Villa and Manchester United (so called top teams). This will give Ortega a great chance to cement himself as the Number 1 for City (provided Pep does not play Roulette).

That’s it for Gameweek 15. We will be back with 6 More Differentials next Gameweek where we will be hoping to get some positive returns from our current selected Differentials for Gameweek 15.

Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW15:

FPL GW15 Scout Selection- Top Picks Based on Stats and Matchups
Top FPL Gameweek 15 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
Top FPL GW15 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
FPL GW15 Tips & Ultimate Guide: Differentials, Captaincy & More
FPL GW15 Tips – Isak, Johnson Dilemmas, and Fixtures to Target
Sleeper Draft Fantasy GW15- Best Punts and Hidden Gems

Link to all our FPL GW15 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 15 of the 2024/25 FPL Season?

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