FPL GW18 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups

Welcome to our FPL GW18 Scout Picks blog! Christmas is only days away, but so is FPL GW18 so we need to make sure we’re staying on top of both present wrapping and our GW18 transfer plans! Thanks to Salah captaincy in GW17 the AAFPL scout team had a great week, scoring a whopping 95 points, 42 of which were from the egyptian king! That score takes us to 11-6 against the official FPL scout team going into GW18…

	GW1	GW2	GW3	GW4	GW5	GW6	GW7	GW8	GW9	GW10	GW11	GW12	GW13	GW14	GW15	GW16	GW17	Total
AAFPL Team	84	65	92	44	59	42	59	26	72	35	83	70	83	67	63	51	95	11
Official FPL Team	64	96	77	46	54	39	44	46	71	55	78	66	98	64	78	46	89	6

As always, our Scout Picks will be based on the eye test, stats, and analysis. Let’s first take a look at the fixtures for FPL GW18.

Link to all our FPL GW18 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

GW18 Fixtures

FPL GW18 Scout Picks

FPL GW18 Scout Picks – Goalkeeper

Raya (5.6m) retains his place in the AAFPL Scout picks team for the 3rd week in a row. Going for double Arsenal defense two weeks in a row has turned out relatively well for us, so we’re sticking with Raya this week as Arteta’s side face Ipswich at home – the perfect opportunity for some CS points!

Ipswich have scored the 3rd fewest goals in the league and are also bottom 5 for xG. Arsenal on the other hand have conceded just 2 goals in their past 4 games, keeping 2 clean sheets in the process. The gunners boast the joint fewest goals conceded in the league and the 2nd lowest expected goals against in the league and over the past 6 GWs Raya has accumulated 25 fpl points, despite having faced a number a decent sides in that run.

Ipswich have scored in just 2 of their last 5 games (twice against Wolves) and have consistently struggled to create clear-cut chances for their star forward Delap. Outside of Delap, they lack quality in attack, as shown by the fact that their most creative player this season has been full-back Leif Davis. Arsenal have shown us in recent weeks that they are the best defensive side in the league, so when they’re facing a poor attacking side like Ipswich doubling up on their defenders is a no-brainer!…

FPL GW18 Scout Picks – Defenders

Gabriel (6.3m), Colwill (4.6m), and Trent (7.0m) make up our back 3 for GW18!

Gabriel completes the Arsenal defensive double up. Everything written about Raya applies here – but if I had to pick one or the other I’d pick Gabriel for his additional attacking potential. The Arsenal CB is averaging 0.25xG/90, which is out-of-this-world for an fpl defender. He is the main target from corners, and has shown time and time again how dangerous he can be from set pieces – he is arguably the most essential FPL defensive asset!

Colwill makes his first appearence for the AAFPL Scout team, as Chelsea face local rivals Fulham at home on Boxing day. Chelsea defenders have not been hugely popular assets in fpl this year, perhaps in part due to their perceived defensive frailties in terms of personal (Cucurella), in reality this season Moresca’s team has been fairly solid.

Chelsea have the joint 3rd fewest goals against in the league and have kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5 games, where they fall down however, is the underlying numbers. In terms of expected data, they are 9th in the league for expected goals against, and have the second biggest overperformance of xGA, only behind Ipswich. This suggests that they should have conceded far more (8 goals) than they have in reality, which may explain some of the reasoning behind Moresca’s adamance that his side are not in a title race!

Colwill has been virtually ever present in Chelsea’s back 4 this season, after having fallen prey to Pochettino’s constant rotation of personnel last season, starting all but one game in the league for the Blues in 24/25. While Cucurella and Gusto are seen as more attacking and thus better FPL options, their xGI/90 are not vastly different from Colwill’s, so we’ve gone for the englishman due to his security of minutes in what could be a challenging GW to predict line-up wise due to the quick turnarouns GW17-19.

Finally we have TAA. Trent produced an exquisite assist for Diaz to open the scoring in Liverpool’s 6-3 thriller against Spurs on Sunday and will be licking his lips at the chance of playing against a Leicester side which shipped three goals at home against Wolves at the weekend. Anybody who watched the game will know how complete Trent’s performance was at the Tottenham Hotspur stadium, and Liverpool fans will be hoping that he delivers Reds fans a Christmas present in the form of a newly signed lifetime contract ASAP!

Liverpool still have the best defense by xGA in the league, and both Trent and Virgil are in the top 5 for points scored by defenders in FPL this season. Leicester’s new manager bounce is now a distant memory, having suffered 4-0 and 3-0 losses in consecutive weeks at the hands of Newcastle and Wolves, they’ll be dreading a trip to Anfield on boxing day. The last time Leicester played Liverpool on boxing day the Reds won 4-0 with Trent putting in a MOTM performance by providing 2 assists and scoring 1 goal (24 fantasy points!) – fingers crossed for a similar points haul this time around!

FPL GW18 Scout Picks – Midfielders

We’ve finally strayed away from our tried and tested 3-4-3 formation, selecting 5 midfielders for GW18 – Salah (13.5m), Palmer (11.2m), Bowen (7.5m), Semenyo (5.6m) and Fernandes (8.4m)!

Let’s start with the obvious one – Mo Salah scored 21 points in GW17, grabbing 2 goals, 2 assists and all 3 bonus points in Liverpool’s win away at Spurs. He’s been involved in over 70% of Liverpool’s goals this season and looked unplayable at times in GW17 – he’s essential, especially considering his team is playing newly promoted Leicester who, as mentioned above, are in a poor patch of form at the moment. He’s on track to break all sorts of records if he continues at this rate, and in this form, it would take a brave man to bet against him! He remains our captain for GW18.

Next up is Cole Palmer. Despite having blanked for 2 weeks in a row, we’re sticking with the Chelsea star boy for GW18. His numbers remain ridiculous, and he was unlucky to not get at least one attacking return over the course of the past 2 GWs, having accrued more than 1xGI. The old saying goes that in a local derby form goes out the window, so let’s hope that Palmer’s lackluster 2 GW run of 0 attacking returns comes to an end against Fulham in GW18!

Now onto the more differential picks… West Ham face Southampton in GW18, so Bowen was an obvious choice for our team! The English winger has been in great form in recent weeks, getting 3 goal contributions in the last 3 games. His 0.4xG/90 over the past 4 games shows just how great a run of form he is in, not to mention his 0.63xA/90 in that period too! Whenever a player is producing over 1xGI/90 it’s impossible to ignore them, and with Southampton up next, we just had to include him!

With Fullkrug back fit, Bowen has been moved back onto his preferred right wing, which should benefit not only the team, but also FPL managers, as he is much more comfortable in that position. Fullkrug’s return can only be a positive thing for this team, as the Hammers have been in need of a focal point in attack for a long long time – hopefully this will take Bowen’s game to a whole new level!

Southampton on the other hand remain the worst team in the division, having conceded the 3rd most goals and by far the most xGA in the league. Their ‘new manager bounce’ led to a 2-1 defeat to Liverpool and a 0-0 draw against Fulham, but whatever impact a new manager may try to have on the Saints their squad is not good enough for this level, and they will continue to struggle in this division – thus we’ll continue to target them in FPL…

Bournemouth were the victors at Old Trafford for the 2nd time in 12 months at the weekend, beating Amorim’s side 0-3 in a result that leaves United in the bottom half of the table at Christmas for the first time in Premier League history. Semenyo was an integral part of the Cherries’ victory at Old Trafford in GW17, taking 4 shots (0.5xG) and scoring once. Bournemouth remain unbeaten in December, last losing against Brighton over a month ago on the 23rd of November – they face Palace on boxing day and will be looking to extend their unbeaten run in the league to 6 matches…

Palace have been better in recent weeks, having been pretty dire for the first couple of months of the season, and in fact played alright against Arsenal, despite the scoreline telling a different story. Since the start of November, Palace are 8th for expected points, but have continued to struggle defensively, conceding 15 goals and 14xGA in that time. Bournemouth on the other hand are 3rd based on expected points in that period, scoring 16 and conceding just 10 – I know who I’m backing in this game!

Finally, we have Bruno Fernandes. Now this may seem like a strange pick, as United lost to the aforementioned Bournemouth in GW17, but hear me out!… United actually created more xG than Bournemouth in that game, 2.28 to the Cherries’ 1.63, and the player who was at the heart of United’s attack? Bruno Fernandes.

United’s attacking midfielder created 4 chances and took 7 shots, amounting to 0.9xGI just in GW17. He had a number of long shots that drifted just wide of the target too, which will show up as low xG but were great chances for a player of Fernandes’ quality and ability. Over the past 3 games Bruno F has averaged 0.86xGI/90, despite being deployed in vastly different roles and positions in each of those games, demonstrating how he can, and has, thrived regardless of the role he is deployed in by Amorim. That being said, the ex-sporting midfielder looked much more comfortable in his attacking midfield role just behind Zirkzee alongside Amad – in fact United looked much better for it, as Bruno offers little in terms of defensive cover when deployed deeper.

FPL GW18 Scout Picks – Forwards

Our two man strike partnership of Isak (8.9m) and Jesus (6.8m) combines two men who have been in absolutely brilliant form in recent weeks, one with a fairly average fixture and one with a great fixture, but more importantly, both at home!

Isak retains his place in the team for the 3rd GW in a row. The Newcastle forward has returned in each of his last 4 matches in the league, getting double-digit hauls in 3/4, and producing a total of 8 attacking returns! What’s more, his underlying numbers are also fairly consistent, meaning that this purple patch is no fluke.

Howe’s side have scored more than 2 goals in 5 of their last 7 games and 4 in both of their last two. Their fixture this week is at home, which is definitely a positive for Newcastle, who have been much better at home than they have away (PPG home – 1.75 PPG away – 1.3). While Villa are not normally a ‘team to target’, it’s impossible to ignore Newcastle’s recent goal-scoring form, so we’re backing Isak yet again.

Finally, we have Jesus! With Saka out for at least a few weeks and Arsenal playing Ipswich at home, it fell on us to pick an alternative Arsenal attacker for the AAFPL Scout picks team this week, and with the form he’s been in recently, it felt right to go with Jesus. The sample size is too small for us to talk about xG/90 etc., so let’s look just at his two most recent matches – 10 shots, 2.04xG, and 5 goals. With Martinelli out of form and Havertz possibly out of position, the choice was between Odegaard and Jesus, and with the latter in awesome goal-scoring form it just made sense to go with Gabby!

Full Scout Selection Team

Please note that our bench includes a 4.0m ‘keeper, a 2 x 4.0m defender, and a 4.5m midfielder, as all of the players selected are expected to start and have significant game-time in FPL GW17.

Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW18:

FPL GW18 Tips – Hold or Sell Pedro?, Robinson + Rogers
FPL GW18 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
FPL GW18 Tips & Ultimate Guide: Differentials, Captaincy & More

Link to all our FPL GW18 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 18 of the 2024/25 FPL Season?

We’ll be covering differential picks, transfer targets, Buy, Hold, Sell analysis, Scout picks, Gameweek preview, Captaincy metrics, FPL GW18 tips, and more. Keep checking allaboutfpl.com for all our blogs. We’ll also be posting regularly about the same on our social media accounts so follow us on Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook and keep our notification ON.