FPL GW12: Player Performance Analysis by Position & Price Point

As we move to a Gameless weekend in the midst of another monotonous International Break, we try to make different analyses. Now, with a sample of 11 GWs, it seems like a good position to stop and see what the underlying numbers say.

In this series, we are going to look at Player Performances across all three positions by breaking them down based on their prices. We will be comparing the Goals and Assists/90 minutes, players have scored against their Expected Goals and Expected Assists per 90 minutes. The comparison will essentially help us assess if a player has been overperforming or underperforming. The dataset is taken from the Members’ area of Fantasy Football Scout.

Further, we try to combine these past performance, with upcoming fixtures for those teams. The size of each player’s bubble captures this aspect, representing the average Fixture Difficulty Rating (FDR) for the selected period. Therefore, the larger the size of the bubble indicates a better fixture run for that particular player. FDR Data has been taken from Fantasy Football Hub.

More about data selection: The data has been taken from GW1 till GW11 for this season and has been adjusted for per 90 minutes. The average FDR rating is used for the selected Gameweek period (GW12 – GW17).

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Link to all our FPL GW12 blogs including scout picks, wildcard guide, best midfielders, best forwards, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

FPL Defenders Performance Analysis Ahead of FPL GW12

In this section, we compare the defenders for the Expected Goal Involvement against their Actual Goal Involvement per 90 minutes.

Premium Defenders: Key Highlights

The first category looks at the Premium defenders (above £5.5).

• Trent Alexander-Arnold stands out once again, becoming the most transferred-out player this week, with 242,000 managers already losing patience. Despite having impressive underlying data, he has yet to deliver consistent results. Mixed fixtures and an injury during a busy period make him a candidate to be replaced by other players. However, managers should continue monitoring his status closely.
• Virgil Van Dijk has benefited from luckier returns, presenting himself as a strong alternative from one of the league’s top defenses.
• For Arsenal’s defense, Gabriel has matched his underlying numbers well and has a favorable run of fixtures. On the other hand, Saliba ranks lower in xGI per 90 minutes and has been underperforming thus far. Potential players to watch include Timber (5.5) and Calafiori (5.8), who could offer appealing options to double up in White’s absence.
• Gvardiol has posted solid numbers to date, but with tough fixtures ahead and signs of overperformance, a potential dip in points could be on the horizon.

Further Read: FPL GW12 Wildcard Team & Drafts to Consider | Wildcard Guide

Budget Defenders: Key Highlights

Top 30 defenders in terms of their xGI/90 were selected [adjusting for players who have played majority of the season].

Now, we take a look at a more crowded category, Budget Defenders:

• Wolves full-back Nouri (4.7) has averaged close to 0.5 Goals + Assists per 90 minutes this season. While he has been significantly overperforming, he still offers potential with favorable upcoming fixtures against Leicester, Ipswich, and West Ham.
• Davis is another option despite his team’s defensive struggles. Ignoring the clean sheet aspect, he may still be worth holding.

• For Brighton’s defense, Estupinan has been unlucky not to register any returns so far this season. Wildcarders might find Brighton’s defense appealing, with Estupinan priced at 5.0m as a promising differential.
• Many managers are keen on United defenders, but their next five gameweeks present a challenging fixture run. They have potential for clean sheets in the next two matches but should be considered luxury transfers.
• Newcastle defenders, particularly Schar (5.4m) and Hall (4.4m), stand out as options for Wildcarders. They boast solid fixtures and a season average of around 0.16 xGI per 90 minutes. Hall offers exceptional value at his price.
• Robinson (4.7) from Fulham is another player who caught our eye. Fulham still has decent fixtures and he looks extremely sharp on the left back, making multiple forward runs. There could be some returns coming in for him in the easier fixtures.

Further Read: FPL GW12 Wildcard Team & Drafts to Consider | Wildcard Guide

FPL Midfielders Performance Analysis Ahead of FPL GW12

In the Midfielders and Forwards section, we compare two graphs: xG against Actual Goals and xA against Actual Assists, both analyzed per 90 minutes. This would help us understand who has had a major share of being clinical and racking up the chances, and who has been the creator in the side.
The ideal combination, perhaps a balance of both?

Premium Midfielders: Key Highlights

• Salah has been in top notch form this season with already crossing the 100 point mark. He faces a weak S’oton defence next week. He has been slightly over performing and has decent fixtures after GW12. An argument could be made to juggle him around with other premiums, but it is not optimal to spend multiple transfers on an in-form player, who could possibly score against any team.

• Palmer has an incredible fixture run, with Leicester and S’oton in the next three. In both the weeks, he is in the captaincy contention, competing against the likes of Salah and Haaland.
• United, as discussed above, has two good fixture before they face Arsenal, Forest and City. Managers should note that Bruno’s popularity in transfers could lead them to transfer him again within two weeks.
  Needless to say, he could go big over next two and is one of the best options on a Wildcard or a mini-FT Wildcard (for those who have more than 3 FTs saved up)
• Saka, as expected is performing better in his Assists Chart, and at a decent level in his Goals/90 chart. Arsenal do have the best fixtures over the next 5, but he could be worth waiting a 2/3 weeks for the likes of Palmer/Bruno or Salah. Forest have been a strong defence this season. In GW13, Saka goes against West Ham making him the best captaincy option, with only Son, Mbeumo or Fernandes being alternatives.

Further Read: FPL Midfielders Watch: Top Assets to Target for Gameweek 12-15

Mid-Priced Midfielders [£6.5 – £8.0]: Key Highlights

• Mbeumo has risen the most of any players this season. He started at 7.0 and is already 7.9 in 11 Gameweeks. With the midfield spot getting crowded, he is on the chopping block for many. However, the approach should be more wary as he faces Everton and Leicester in the next two. After which, removing him could make sense for the likes of Saka.
• The Spurs players, despite having good numbers, have relatively difficult fixtures ahead. They allow direct swaps to Bruno or Brighton mids.
• Mitoma and Gordon could be cheeky differentials with both of them having good fixtures and underperforming their numbers in both, goals as well as assists. An alternative to Gordon could be Isak, and to Mitoma could be Jao Pedro.

Further Read: FPL Midfielders Watch: Top Assets to Target for Gameweek 12-15

Budget Midfielders [Below £6.5]: Key Highlights

This category has been overshadowed by their forward counterparts. Perhaps, having none, or just one from this would be a good way to go.

• Semenyo looks extremely attractive, when taken into consideration, Bournemouth’s run ahead. They face Brighton, Wolves, Spurs, Ipswich and West Ham in next 5. All of these defences have been conceding for fun and Semenyo could capitalize on that.
• Rogers is a solid long-term hold and offers strong bench cover. He also rotates well with other budget forwards. While Villa has good fixtures, their midweek commitments and focus on the Champions League are somewhat concerning.
• Fulham has provided some good options in this category. ESR and Iwobi, have both been great. Just like rogers, a similar case could be made for them.

A choice between these options ultimately falls down to team value and structure. A manager on Wildcard could go for Semenyo, trying to aim for the next 5. While, someone without a WC, could opt for Rogers/ESR.

Further Read: FPL Midfielders Watch: Top Assets to Target for Gameweek 12-15

FPL Forwards Performance Analysis Ahead of FPL GW12

Premium Forwards: Key Highlights

• As opposed to the GW9 analysis, Haaland’s overperformance has been nullified and now he is back on track with his underlying numbers. With a run of not too good fixtures, its wise to not have him in our teams, unless you are looking to give him the armband.
  He could go on a run of hattrick any moment, but the chance of him picking it up post GW18 seems more likely.
• Kai Havertz, has been consistent so far. At 8m, he provides incredible value in this category. He could also be an option for those going without Saka.

• Isak looks like the most lucrative option in this category. He has the form and fixtures, both vouching for him. Over the 11 Gameweeks, he had posted good numbers, which he could start converting over this run.
• Watkins, as opposed to Isak, doesn’t have the form vouching for him. Moreover, the Champions League commitment doesn’t help his argument. At 9 million, it is a bit difficult to justify his worth.
• Jackson Vs Isak is a popular comparison this week. There are pros and cons to both, and the pick ultimately falls on risk appetite of FPL managers.

Further Read: FPL GW12 – Best Forwards Analysis | Time to Sell Haaland?

Budget Forwards [Below £7.5]: Key Highlights

• Joao Pedro has one of the best fixtures ahead. His return against City instilled some hope among managers. At 5.4m, he does provide surreal value, but having good depth and expecting a few benches should be on the cards. Moreover, he has also been overperforming in both Goals and Assists.
• Cunha, with good fixtures, should be expected to score more points. He has the highest xA/90 in this category. Wolves still have a good set of fixtures coming their way. Strand Larsen, while close to him in terms of xG, lacks behind in creating chances for his teammates.
• Chris Wood is someone managers could look to jump off, if on a WC. He has one of the toughest fixture runs. With an overperformance over the 11 weeks, and his coutnerparts like Cunha, Isak and Pedro having better fixtures, managers could optimize their points by bringing them in.
• Wissa and Raul also have good numbers, and could be a good bet for the short run.
• Bournmouth also have another good option in Evanilson. Semenyo and him, have been talismanic for ‘The Cherries’.

It is hard to believe the number of options available in this category. It is indeed difficult to pick one out of them, but opting for one with good fixtures in the long run, does seem to be the way.

With that, we have to come to the end of the article. We hope you enjoyed reading this and that it helps you towards making the optimal transfer for your FPL team. Best of luck for GW12.

Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW12

FPL GW12 Tips & Ultimate Guide: Differentials, Captaincy & More
FPL GW12 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats
Top FPL Gameweek 12 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW12 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
FPL GW12 Tips – Transfer Decisions, Hold or Sell Trent & More
FPL GW12: Player Performance Analysis by Position & Price Point
FPL GW12 – Best Forwards Analysis | Time to Sell Haaland?
FPL Midfielders Watch: Top Assets to Target for Gameweek 12-15
FPL GW12 Wildcard Team & Drafts to Consider | Wildcard Guide 
FPL Gameweek 12 Transfer Tips- Buy, Hold, Sell Analysis
Sleeper Draft Fantasy GW12 – Best Punts and Hidden Gems

Link to all our FPL GW12 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 12 of the 2024/25 FPL Season?

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