Top FPL GW26 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline

Gameweek 25 turned out to be an absolute disaster for FPL managers, as a lot of the double gameweek players didn’t deliver the goods. In fact the top four points scorers, as on Tuesday night, are all single GW players. Nonetheless, it is time to move ahead and start planning for the next 4-5 GWs, and beyond. In this blog, we take a look at the Top six Differentials(<10% TSB) to consider ahead of the FPL GW26 Deadline.

Link to all our FPL GW26 blogs including Buy, Hold, Sell analysis, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, Scout picks, Wildcard Drafts, Tips, and more. Completely free to access as well!

FPL GW26 Differential Picks (<10% ownership)

Douglas Luiz vs Nottingham Forest(H), £5.5m, TSB: 9.5%

Douglas Luiz has been a fascinating asset in FPL so far this season. With 115 points to his name, he is the ninth top scoring midfielder in the game. He is ahead of the likes of Odegaard and Hwang. He is also just 4 points and 9 points shy of the ‘bargains of the season’ Gordon and Palmer, respectively.

Aston Villa assets will be very popular heading into the upcoming run of games, starting from FPL GW26. Not only do they have 3 of their next 5 fixtures at home, they also have a very attractive matchup in blank GW29.

Douglas Luiz has quietly gone under the radar in recent weeks. Often, we assume that his potential is limited to penalties and set pieces. However, since GW14, only Watkins has had more xPts than Luiz, among Aston Villa players. Minutes played is a very important stat, as Villa will shortly resume European action in the Europa Conference League. Players like Bailey/ Diaby are more prone to rotation and minutes management.

The above stat is extremely telling for Luiz. He has got a higher NPxG than Bailey since GW14. In fact, in this period no other Villa player has created more big chances (5) than the Brazilian.

Besides, Villa’s FPL GW26 opponent- Forest have conceded more goals (15) than any other team in the league. As we know, Luiz is the primary set piece taker for Unai Emery’s men.

Meanwhile, Spurs, WestHam and Wolves, whom Villa play in the coming GWs, have conceded 6, 5 and 5 penalties respectively. Whilst Spurs’ tally is the worst in the league, Wolves and West Ham have the joint third worst tally. In one way or another, points are on the horizon for Douglas Luiz!

Further Read: FPL GW26 Tips – Best Midfielders, BGW26 Planning & More

Simon Adingra vs Everton(H), £5.0m, TSB: 0.7%

Simon Adingra came back from the African cup of nations with a bang. The youngster registered 2 goals and 2 bonus, in a 15 point haul last time out, against Sheffield United.

Adingra was the young player of the recently concluded AFCON tournament. He led Ivory Coast to a dramatic victory in the finals, with two assists. In FPL, he has registered 6 goals and an assist so far.

Brighton’s run of fixtures in the short run is pretty enticing to say the least. Since GW8, only Joao Pedro(0.36) has had a better NPxG/90 than Adingra(0.22) among Brighton players. He is also second best only to the same player for shots among his compatriots.

Adingra offers a cheaper alternative to the likes of Gross and Mitoma, who both are significantly more expensive than the Ivorian. The 22-year old will be a worthy pick in the short run. However, given his price point, he can be held on to in the long run as well!

Further Read: FPL GW26 Scout Picks- Top Picks based on Stats and Matchups

Alejandro Garnancho vs Fulham(H), £5.0m, TSB: 9.1%

Manchester United have been in red hot form of late. Erik Ten Hag’s men have won 4 games on the bounce, and have won 5 of their last 7 league matches. They have scored 17 goals in this period. Only Liverpool(22), Arsenal(22), and Man City(18) have got a better tally in this period.

Four of Man Utd’s next five fixtures are against teams in the bottom of the table. There is a caveat though, the GW29 fixture may not happen if the Red Devils progress further in the FA Cup. Nonetheless, three in four is still a tasty proposition.

Rasmus Hojlund is the most transferred in player this week. That is understandable given that he has scored in 6 games on the bounce. But looking at the statistics during this period of Hojlund’s run, his counterpart has outperformed him in almost every key stat.

The Argentinean has had more shots in the box, has created more big chances, and has had a better xPts tally than the Danish striker. Indeed, Hojlund has had more big chances. However, that is not a reason to ignore the Watkins, Solanke, and Haaland front three, to jump ship on to the Man Utd striker.

Garnacho is not only a cheap route into the inform Man Utd attack, he is also the best asset right now. After all, since GW14, Garnacho is top for shots, shots on target, shots in the box, points and xPts among Man Utd players.

And if those things aren’t enough to convince you, the youngster has registered 5 of his 8 attacking returns at home. This includes a double digit haul in the last three home matches.

Craig Dawson vs Sheffield United(H), £4.5m, TSB: 1.0%

Dawson has been one of the standout players for Wolves this season. The centre back has already registered 2 attacking returns (1G 1A), along with 5 bonus points, thus far this season.

Wolves have an amazing run of fixtures coming up. 6 of their next 8 fixtures are against teams in the bottom half of the table. Three of their next four fixtures are at home. Indeed, they have lost the last two home games. However, they were on an 8 game unbeaten run at Molineux prior to that.

Since GW16, Dawson(7) has the seventh best record for shots in the box among defenders. Besides, in the last eight seasons, only once has Dawson scored fewer than 2 goals.

Some of the upcoming fixtures for Wolves are against teams that have a poor record from set pieces. Dawson’s record of 20 goals in last 8 seasons suggests that a few more might be on the horizon in this run of matches!

Further Read: 2023/24 FPL Chip Strategy Guide – Best Windows and Analysis (Must read)

David Datro Fofana vs Crystal Palace(A), £5.0m, TSB: 0.2%

David Datro Fofana has made an impact in his short career at Burnley. The Chelsea loanee has registered 3 attacking returns (2G 1A) in 4 appearances for the Clarets.

Burnley’s upcoming fixtures are very good for attacking returns. Six of their next nine fixtures are against teams in the bottom half of the table. 12 of their 13 points in the league have come against such opposition. The other point was against Brighton- whom they face in the upcoming run.

Since he made his debut for Burnley, Fofana is top for shots, shots on target, shots in the box, big chances, xG, goals, big chances created, and of course xPts among his compatriots. In fact, his xG/90 of 0.72 is the seventh best in the league in this period. Furthermore, he is top for big chances created among forwards in that time.

Meanwhile Burnley’s FPL GW26 opponent- Crystal Palace have a new manager in the house. If you hear what he has had to say about his style of play, you would be able to make out one thing- goals are guaranteed in their matches. Good for Fofana and co as they might be able to take advantage of the Eagles being open at the back!

Further Read: FPL GW26 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats

Pablo Sarabia vs Sheffield United(H), £4.7m, TSB: 0.3%

Wolves are another team who have been in amazing form in the league. Gary O’Neil’s men have won five of their last eight matches. They have scored 18 goals in this period. Only two teams have scored more, Liverpool(23) and Arsenal(23).

Sarabia has been an integral part in this run of results for Wolves. The former PSG man has registered four attacking returns (1G 3A) in this period. Overall, the Spainard has registered 2 goals and 6 assists this season.

Given the run of games coming up for the Black Country side, Neto and Hwang have been among the top 10 most bought in players ahead of FPL GW26. We however believe that Sarabia is being overlooked. Since FPL GW15, the Spaniard has a better xGI/90 than his two counterparts. He is also top xPts(47.03) among Wolves players in this period.

Sarabia did take a penalty in this period. Hwang was away on international duty. Sarabia has a 100% record in his career for penalties (17/17). Whereas the Korean has scored 9 and missed 2 of his 11 penalties.

When Hwang took the pen in one of the fixtures earlier in the season, Sarabia wasn’t on the pitch. This isn’t to say that the latter will be the spot kick taker. However, it is not beyond the realms of possibility.

Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW26

Confirmed & Likely FPL Double/Blank Gameweeks | 23/24 Season
Top FPL Gameweek 26 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW26 Scout Picks- Top Picks based on Stats and Matchups
Best FPL GW26 Differential Picks(<10% TSB)
FPL Gameweek 26 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
FPL GW26 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats
FPL GW26 Tips – Best Midfielders, BGW26 Planning & More
2023/24 FPL Chip Strategy Guide – Best Windows and Analysis (Must read)
FPL GW26 Free Hit Guide- Pros, Cons and Best Drafts
Impact of FA Cup Results on FPL Blank Gameweek 29 | FPL BGW29
FPL GW26 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More 

Link to all our FPL GW26 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 26 of the 2023/24 FPL Season?

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