FPL GW13-18 Fixture Swing Analysis | Teams & Players to Target

After a pretty extensive fixture swing a couple of weeks ago for some of the heavy-hitting teams (Arsenal, Liverpool, Newcastle, Villa etc.) the fixtures from FPL GW13 onwards are a very mixed bag, and represent a good opportunity for us managers to take stock and diverge from the GW9/10 wildcard draft. In this post we will be looking at teams to avoid, a couple of dilemmas for managers, and some players to target over the coming weeks!

Link to all our FPL GW13 blogs including Buy, Hold, Sell analysis, Differentials, Captaincy metrics, Scout picks, Wildcard Drafts, Tips, and more. Completely free to access as well!

Teams and Players to Target From FPL GW13

Fixtures from FPL GW13-18

Teams to Avoid From FPL GW13

Before we have an in-depth look at some of the teams to target over the coming weeks, it’s important to highlight some that we should avoid:

Manchester United – With 4 away fixtures at some tough grounds and only 2 at home, coupled with their poor form of late, the Red Devils are a team to avoid, as many of their assets are overpriced and lack consistency.

Brentford – With a blank in GW18, and some pretty average fixtures between now and then, Brentford’s players are not on the watchlist for now. In fact, I would go as far to suggest that we could look to move on any other Brentford assets bar Mbeumo who might still offer some value during the GW14-16 period!

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Luton – Despite their excellent performance at home against Liverpool in GW11, Luton remain a very unappealing FPL option, due to their lack of goals and tendency to concede (0CS and joint 15th for Goals Scored).

Brighton – While their fixtures aren’t as bad as they look, they too have been lacking consistency, with their European tour really taking a toll on their Premier League performances. The Seagulls haven’t won a game in the league in over a month, having played a mixture of elite teams and relegation candidates, not to mention De Zerbi’s tendency to rotate, so perhaps now is the time to look to sell Mitoma for some of the players discussed later….

Further Read: Confirmed & Likely FPL Double/Blank Gameweeks | 23/24 Season

Fixtures Vs Form

The main issue facing Managers in FPL GW13 and beyond is the fact that many of the teams that we targeted in GW8/9/10 for their good fixtures are entering a period of difficult games. Adding to this dilemma is the fact that many of these teams have been in fantastic form, and it is hard to judge how they will fare against stronger opposition.

Firstly let’s look at Newcastle. The Magpies were unbeaten in 7 in the League, having kept 5 Clean Sheets and scored 20 goals before their loss to Bournemouth and it goes without saying; that they are still in good form. On the face of it, their next 6 fixtures look relatively daunting, with Spurs and Chelsea amongst others, but in reality, their run is not as bad as it first seems.

Howe’s side have conceded the 4th fewest goals in the league so far, and conceded the joint fewest last season – their defence is one of the best around, so I would suggest that their defenders (Trippier etc.) are a hold. Furthermore, looking at the teams they will be playing over the next 6, only 1 team is in the top 8 for goals scored (Spurs), so clean sheets shouldn’t be hard to come by. Having said this, the Magpies are in a very large injury crisis at the moment with many starters out, and if their performance against Bournemouth is anything to go by, then there are worrying times ahead.

Onto Aston Villa now, who sit 5th in the league, 5 points ahead of the aforementioned Newcastle, and were one of the teams that many managers on a WC targeted a couple of weeks ago. They face Spurs (A), City (H) and Arsenal (H) in quick succession, and their record against ‘big sides’ does not bode well for them, as they have only won 1 out of 3 of the games they have played against last season’s top 6 (albeit a pretty convincing 6-1 win against Brighton). Players like Watkins or Diaby are not ‘bad’ FPL players to hold, but there could be better value to be found elsewhere for this run. As for Villa defenders; FPL GW13 is probably a good time to sell.

Let me preface this whole section on Manchester City by noting that Pep Guardiola’s treble winners could win every single one of their games between now and Christmas and nobody would be surprised. However, they have started the season slowly (by their standards), KDB is still injured, Haaland is arguably not at his best, they blank in GW18 and play 3 of the best teams in the league back to back.

It would be foolish of me to suggest that their players should be avoided, but they should be approached with caution. What’s more, Doku, Foden, Grealish and co. have all been prone to rotation, so this coupled with the poor fixtures perhaps weighs the scales more in favor of risk than reward. As seen against Chelsea, the Citizens can be ‘got at’; they have not been at their best in recent weeks.

Arsenal and Spurs also fall into this category, with a very mixed bag of fixtures for both teams. Due to injuries and suspensions now may be the perfect time to sell Tottenham assets, as their fixtures from FPL GW13-16 are not easy at all, and if they are without key players they may struggle. As for Arsenal, their worst fixtures come at the back end of this period, so their players are not an immediate issue, but it is definitely something to think about post GW15.

Further Read: FPL GW12 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based On Eye Test & Stats

Players to Target From FPL GW13

Defenders

Chelsea have the 4th best xGA in the Premier League this season, and after Newcastle in GW13 have some decent fixtures in the run up to Christmas. With Reece James (5.3M) back fit he is the obvious choice, as the Englishman offers the most attacking threat of any Chelsea defender – when fit. If you are concerned about James’ injury record then Thiago Silva (5.0M) is the most nailed Blue’s defender, having played every single league minute so far this season.

Forest’s defence could also be one to target, as they only play 1 team in the top 8 over the next 6. The issue with Forest’s players however is that they are almost all rotation risks, especially the fullbacks.

Aurier (4.5M) has already bagged himself 2 assists (from 0.6xA) this season, but his underlying stats suggest that this rate is not sustainable (0.07xA/90), however, he was benched in the most recent games against Villa and West Ham. Ola Aina is another option to consider he has played ahead of Aurier and has impressed for NFFC(Goal and an assist in the last two games). He might be the first-choice RB for Forest.

Toffolo (4.4M) has 3 assists to his name (from 0.38xA), grabbing 2 against Villa, the Englishman has only played 390 out of a possible 990 minutes this season but has been starting more frequently in recent weeks.

A more viable option is Murillo (4.5M) who has played every minute since signing for the club in August, although admittedly he is less ‘exciting’ than Aina and Toffolo, furthermore he was hauled off in Forest’s most recent game so is a potential injury risk. The Reds managed a clean sheet against Villa, one of the most prolific teams in the league, in GW11, so their players should be in our thoughts.

Further Read: Confirmed & Likely FPL Double/Blank Gameweeks | 23/24 Season

Midfielders

The Hammers have had a torrid time of late, losing 3 games on the bounce in the league before putting Forest away in GW12, but their games from FPL GW13-18 make Moyes’ side an appealing prospect, particularly their midfielders. Bowen (7.5M) is the obvious, and expensive choice, scoring 8 and providing 1 assist in the league this season.

Big concerns for West Ham in attack. Michail Antonio injured knee ligaments (not hamstring as initially reported) on international duty. Could be six weeks, could be much longer – not scanned yet. Bowen also got knee injury with England but WH hope it isn’t as serious.

Latest on Antonio & Bowen injury news

Kudus (6.5M) offers a different, slightly cheaper alternative, and has been starting games more regularly as of late. Rotation is also not a worry now with Antonio ruled out for a while, Kudus has been in excellent form recently with 2 goals in his last 4 games, so is arguably the second-best Hammers choice. Soucek may also be considered as his numbers have spiked since being moved into the attacking midfield position for Westham.

Cole Palmer (5.0 M) could be another option he has registered 4 goals and 4 assists (all comps) since starting his first game for Chelsea in GW7. Although the imminent return of Nkunku might put some doubt in his xMins. Nkunku is a proven penalty taker who took pens in pre-season as well prior to the injury which means Palmer might lose penalties too even if he’s not dropped!

Steve Cooper’s side are also one to think about when it comes to midfielders, although Gibbs-White (5.7M) and Elanga (5.0M) are the only 2 real options, so I compared them using Fantasy Football Hub’s Player Comparison tool:

As you can see Elanga is seemingly the slightly better option, although this may be skewed by the fact that the winger has played 524 minutes to Gibbs-White’s 924 (pre-GW12). Despite the minutes difference, Elanga is worth a shot, as he is averaging the highest Shots/90, 2nd highest xG/90, and the highest xA/90 of any Forest player to have played more than 500 minutes.

Willian (5.3M) and Pereira (5.4M) from Fulham should also be mentioned, however, their underlying numbers are not quite as good as the aforementioned players, which could be down to their tricky fixture run of late, but is something to bear in mind nonetheless. Fulham have great fixtures from FPL GW13 onwards so are another team to keep an eye on.

Further Read: FPL GW12 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based On Eye Test & Stats

Forwards

Do note: Awoniyi is ruled out for 3-4 months after undergoing groin surgery, do not consider him

A great option to consider is Bournemouth’s Dominic Solanke (6.4M), who has played almost every minute for the Cherries this season and bagged himself 6 goals and 1 assist. He has similar underlying numbers to Awoniyi despite having played more football, and Bournemouth’s fixtures are equally as kind as Forest’s.

Looking at each player’s heatmap (SofaScore), we can see that Solanke’s touches are much more concentrated in the penalty area, whereas Awoniyi has clearly been instructed to come slightly deeper and be more involved in Forest’s overall play. Based on this, and the fact that the Bournemouth striker has a slightly higher xG/90 than Awoniyi (0.52xG v 0.49xG/90), it looks like Solanke is the one to go for.

Summary

There are a lot of teams who have a poor run in the league from FPL GW13-18, including a number of teams which many FPL managers are heavily reliant on, so now is a good time to look at the fixtures and try to think ahead to GW13 and beyond, targeting some of the players and teams mentioned and keeping in mind which teams have challenging fixtures in the near future and in the long term.

(All data unless stated was taken from understat)

(Heatmaps used are from SofaScore)

(Prices are from the Premier League website as of 8/11/23)

(Player Comparison tool is courtesy of Fantasy Football Hub.

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FPL GW13-18 Fixture Swing Analysis | Teams & Players to Target
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FPL GW13 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More 
Confirmed & Likely FPL Double/Blank Gameweeks | 23/24 Season 

Link to all our FPL GW13 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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