Top FPL GW2 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline

FPL is well and truly back! Most of the big guns performed in Gameweek 1. However, we had our shocks along the way too. Gabriel was benched after starting last 73 games. John Stones not starting for Man City. But, all in all it is great that FPL is back. It is time for us managers to knee-jerk in some assets based on one game. We are here to give you that potential X factors you can knee-jerk in to your sides. In this blog, let’s take a look at our top FPL GW2 Differential Picks/punts(<10% TSB) to consider in your teams.

Link to all our FPL GW2 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

Top FPL GW2 Differential Picks (<10% ownership)

Solly March vs Wolves(A), £6.5m, TSB: 3.4%

We knew it all along, didn’t we? Solly March statistically was always the best possible pick from Brighton. Yet, we all went for Mitoma, and it was March who ended up outscoring the Japanese by 4 points. The Englishman scored a goal and also got 2 bonus points against Luton.

March ended GW1 with the highest NPxG(0.61) among the £6.5 midfielders. Only Joao Pedro had more shots in the box than him for Brighton. Last season for the Seagulls, March had more shots in the box (52) than any of his teammates.

Brighton’s FPL GW2 opponents Wolves were very unlucky to lose the game at Old Trafford last time out. However, they were exposed time and again down their left flank. Ait- Nouri was caught out often.

The Midlands side conceded 41% of their chances down the left side of their defence, only Nottingham Forest conceded more(47%). As we know, that is exactly where March operates.

In Gameweek 1, only Newcastle registered a better xG(4.67) than Brighton(4.06). This shows that inspite of losing MacAllister and Caicedo, De Zerbi’s men are going to be the same going forward, at least. Therefore, given the fixtures Brighton have, it may be wise to pick March on top of Mitoma and triple up.

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Rico Henry vs Fulham(A), £4.5m, TSB:2.7%

Rico Henry started this season on a good note, as he picked up the assist for Brentford’s equaliser against Spurs last time out. The left back ended up with 4 points in FPL. He could have got an awful lot more.

As we can see from the above graphic, only Estupinian had a better xA in GW1 than Rico Henry. The Englishman was created the joint most big chances among defenders. Given the fact that he is only £4.5m, it bodes well for FPL managers to downgrade someone like a Gabriel and use the £0.5 in other areas.

Brentford have an amazing run of games coming up. 5 of their next 6 games have an FDR rating of 2. Last season for the Bees, Henry had 3 assists. He created more chances than anyone apart from Mbeumo and Toney. In fact, across the league, only 9 players created more big chances among defenders last season.

Meanwhile, Brentford’s opponents Fulham were very lucky to win at Everton last time out. The Cottagers had the third worst xGC. They also had the 6th worst xG, inspite of playing an Everton side that didn’t cover themselves in glory last season in defence.

Further Read: FPL Gameweek 2 Transfer Tips: Two Players To Buy, Hold & Sell

Luis Diaz vs Bournemouth(H), £7.5m, TSB: 7.3%

Luis Diaz scored Liverpool’s only goal in their game against Chelsea. The Colombian carried on his excellent form from pre season. He had scored 4 goals in the friendly matches that Liverpool played. Truth be told, on another day, he could have won a penalty as well, following Jackson’s handball.

In the game at Stamford Bridge, Diaz had an xG of 0.76, which was way more than any of his teammates. For context, Darwin was second best with 0.02. Diaz also had 4 shots in the box. Only Eze and Edouard had more across all teams from the first week of action in the league.

Last season in the league, Bournemouth conceded the second most number of goals(43), behind only Nottingham Forest. Lot of it is skewed by what happened at Anfield, where the Cherries lost 9-0. That was a game in which Luis Diaz scored twice.

In fact, 75% of Diaz’s goals in his Premier League career have come at Anfield. A lot of FPL managers are looking to bring in a Liverpool attacker ahead of their game against Bournemouth. Jota and Darwin are fighting for one position. Sarah might be too expensive. Diaz is the best option given how much more attacking he was when compared to the rest.

Further Read: Best Defenders to Target ahead of GW2- Mings/Timber Replacements

Bryan Mbeumo vs Fulham(A), £6.5m, TSB: 9.6%

We are just as surprised as you are that Mbeumo’s ownership is so low, as it stands. The Brentford man scored one goal and registered 7 points in Gameweek. The Cameroonian international registered the second highest xG (1.21), behind only Isak (1.35).

As we saw above, Brentford have an incredible run of games coming. With Mbeumo being the penalty for the Bees, he becomes an extremely essential option. Only Man City(9) won more penalties last season than Brentford(7).

Meanwhile, the Bees’ FPL GW2 opponents Fulham had the third worst xGC(2.7) last week, behind only Luton and Aston Villa. Last season in the league, no team conceded more big chances than Fulham(112).

The Cottagers also conceded 57% of chances through the centre, the second worst in terms of percentage in the league. That is exactly where Mbeumo gets his shots as we can see from his GW1 shot map.

Further Read: FPL GW2 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats

Matty Cash vs Everton(H), £4.5m, TSB: 7.6%

Aston Villa were on the wrong end of a drubbing in Matchday 1 against Newcastle. However, they are not going to face a side at the level of Magpies often in the coming weeks.

Matty Cash missed a lot of last season through injury. However, in the 2021-22 season, Cash was sixth best for attacking returns (7) among defenders. Furthermore, Villa had the third most number of clean sheets(8) since GW 21, last season.

Nine of Villa’s next thirteen games have an FDR rating of 2. The next two are against teams who failed to score in GW1, they were two of only four teams who failed to find the back of the net last time. Therefore, Villa are likely to pick up clean sheets in these games.

Only Ben Chilwell, Varane, and Romero had a better xG than Cash in GW1. The Polish Right back came close twice to score a goal. He registered a goal as well as an assist in pre season for Villa.

Further Read: Premier League Penalty & Set Piece Takers | 2023/24 PL Season

Top FPL GW2 Ultra Differential Pick (<1% ownership)

Taiwo Awoniyi vs Sheffield United(H), £6.5m, TSB: 0.8%

Awoniyi scored Nottingham Forest’s only goal in their 2-1 defeat at the Emirates last week. The striker registered 7 points (2 BP), despite playing only 19 minutes.

Awoniyi played a massive role in keeping Nottingham Forest up in the League. He scored 10 goals last season. However, 6 of those goals came in the last 4 matches. In fact, nobody scored more goals in that period. Furthermore, nobody registered more FPL points than the Nottingham Forest man between GW35 and GW38.

Forest’s opposition- Sheffield United had the sixth worst xGC(2.07) last week. Furthermore, only Luton Town conceded more shots in the box than the Blades. Odsone Edouard (Sheffield United’s GW1 opponent’s striker) registered more shots in the box than anyone else last time out. Will Awoniyi feast at the expense of a shaky looking Blades’ defence ?

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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW2

Premier League Penalty & Set Piece Takers | 2023/24 PL Season
FPL GW2 Tips & Preview – Breaking Down The Key Dilemmas
Top FPL Gameweek 2 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
Top FPL GW2 Differential Picks((10% TSB) To Consider Ahead Of Deadline
FPL Gameweek 2 Transfer Tips: Two Players To Buy, Hold & Sell
Best Defenders to Target ahead of GW2- Mings/Timber Replacements
FPL GW2 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats
FPL GW2 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More

Link to all our FPL GW2 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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