Welcome back to the captaincy metrics for FPL Gameweek 2, Captaincy this week is interesting with Man city playing Newcastle and Liverpool playing Bournemouth at Anfield. Let’s see who tops our captaincy metrics this week!
The metrics had a 31/37 “returns record” last season and a 30/38 “returns record” in the 21/22 season. Do follow the man behind the metrics @AK_FPL1(Do follow him on Twitter)
This season we have had a good start, 1/1 with Haaland hauling as expected.
Total Points of our captaincy pick so far: 26(GW1)
Note: “Returns” ~ player topping the metrics getting points returns and not necessarily the highest scoring option of the week.
Link to all our FPL GW2 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!
FPL GW2 Captaincy Metrics
FPL GW2 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd
It’s a tie at the top with both Haaland and Salah having 36% of the votes, Saka is third with 8% of the votes following a 10 point return in GW1 vs Nottingham Forest. Aston Villa’s Ollie Watkins is fourth on the captaincy poll for FPL GW2 with 6% of the votes. Another Liverpool asset, Luis Diaz who scored against Chelsea last week is fifth on the captaincy poll this week.
The five players that will go into our captaincy metrics this week are: Haaland, Salah, Saka, Watkins and Luis Diaz!
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Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 2 Captain picks
Note: We have used only used Gameweek 1 data of the new season, as the season progresses we’ll back to the regular six games data
Luis Diaz tops the xG numbers from GW1 registering an xG of 0.84 which included 2 big chances and he had four shots on goal.
Haaland is second with an xG of 0.57 in GW1, he scored two goals against Burnley.
Watkins is 3rd with an xG of 0.32 in GW1, Salah is only fourth with an xG of 0.28, he did hit the post and also had a goal ruled out for offside in the game.
Saka who scored a wondergoal is 5th with only an xG of 0.19, but he’s top for chances created amongst the 5 assets showing his assist potential.
Further Read: Top FPL GW2 Differential Picks(<10% TSB) To Consider Ahead Of Deadline
Underlying Numbers of the Candidate’s Teams
Note: We have used only used Gameweek 1 data of the new season, as the season progresses we’ll back to the regular six games data
Man City had the highest xG amongst the five teams in GW1, registering an xG of 2.08 vs Burnley. Aston Villa are 2nd with an xG of 1.77 in spite of playing away against Newcaslte in GW1. Liverpool are 3rd with a decent xG of 1.28 vs Chelsea once again away from home.
Arsenal surprisingly had only an xG of 0.83 vs Nottigham Forest at home in GW1 and are last amongst the four teams.
Further Read: FPL GW2 Tips & Preview – Breaking Down The Key Dilemmas
Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW2
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.
We will use Drafthound’s odds for a Team scoring at least One goal in the Gameweek and the Odds of Scoring more than 2.5 goals in the Gameweek as a whole.
Liverpool take the first spot, with a 93% chance of scoring at least 1 goal this Gameweek and a 58% chance of scoring more than 2 goals this Gameweek.
Manchester City are behind Klopp’s men, with an 83% chance of scoring at least 1 goal this week, and a 33% chance of scoring more than 2 goals.
Lastly, Arsenal and Aston Villa come in 4th and 5th respectively with an 82%(Both) chances of scoring at least 1 goal this week, and a 31% and 29% chances of scoring more than 2 goals, respectively.
Further Read: FPL GW2 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 2 Captain Picks
In the Fourth Phase of the article, I have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.
I have then averaged the Two Ranks to churn out the Average Rank Factor, which I have used to determine the Safest yet Explosive option.
Erling Haaland has the highest Anytime Returns Projections at 74%, while his Projected Points stand at 8.3 for the week.
Mo Salah has an Anytime Returns Projection at 64%, and the Projected Points at 7.1 this week, giving him the second spot.
Aston Villa’s Watkins has an Anytime Returns Projections at 57% and Projected Points at 6.1, which puts him in third place.
Lastly, Luis Diaz and Saka are both tied for 4th having an Anytime Returns Projections of 51% and 41% respectively while the Projected Points stand at 4.4 and 4.9 respectively giving them the joint 4th spot.
Further Read: FPL Gameweek 2 Transfer Tips: Two Players To Buy, Hold & Sell
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 2 Captaincy metric analysis
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). The Candidate having the lowest Cumulative Rank Factor is the most ideal Captaincy Option according to this metric.
The record breaker Erling Haaland comes out to be the best option this week, topping the table with a CRF value of 7.
Haaland is followed by Luis Diaz who takes second place with a CRF value of 9.
Mo Salah takes the third place with a CRF value of 10.
Watkins takes the fourth place with a CRF value of 13. And lastly, Bukayo Saka takes the last spot with a CRF value of 18.
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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW2
Premier League Penalty & Set Piece Takers | 2023/24 PL Season
FPL GW2 Tips & Preview – Breaking Down The Key Dilemmas
Top FPL Gameweek 2 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
Top FPL GW2 Differential Picks((10% TSB) To Consider Ahead Of Deadline
FPL Gameweek 2 Transfer Tips: Two Players To Buy, Hold & Sell
Best Defenders to Target ahead of GW2- Mings/Timber Replacements
FPL GW2 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats
FPL GW2 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
Link to all our FPL GW2 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!
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AK - Anurag Khetan
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