Top FPL GW37 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline

FPL GW37 deadline is fast approaching us and the penultimate gameweek of the season is a Double Gameweek as well which adds to the excitement. This period of the season is when FPL managers will look to make some differential moves to gain points and rank over their mini-league rivals and in this blog let’s take a look at the top differential picks for FPL GW37.

Note: Player ownership is at the time of writing which is subject to change.

Link to all our FPL GW37 blogs including Fixtures to target, Double gameweek news, Captaincy metrics, Differentials, and more. Completely free to access as well!

Top FPL GW37 Differential Picks (<10% ownership)

Bruno Fernandes vs Bournemouth(A), Chelsea(H), £9.5m, TSB: 9.9%

A team that has everything to play for(UCL spot), Has a Double Gameweek with the good fixtures, Key player of that team with one of the best underlying data in the league expected to play 180 minutes- What’s stopping you from buying Bruno Fernandes with just 2 Gameweeks to go? Bruno is our Top Differential Pick for FPL GW37. He could even be a Differential Captaincy choice if you are chasing. Stay tuned for our Captaincy Metrics this week before locking your captain.

Minutes Monster:

Despite the grueling Premier League schedule, Bruno Fernandes is one of the players who can be termed as a “Minutes monster”. Fernandes has started and completed 90 minutes in 33/35 Premier Leagues games this season. He was taken off at 89 minutes in one game and missed the other game completely.

Bruno Fernandes has a 9.0 xGI from the last 9 games which suggests that you can at least expect one Goal Involvement from his per game. Bruno also has 15 Big Chances Involvements during this time. Bruno’s xGI of 9.0 since GW29 is the Joint Highest among all midfielders- On par with Salah.

Bruno Fernandes Stats since GW29(Rank Among Midfielders):

• Expected Goal Involvement- 9.0(Joint 1st)
• Key Passes- 37(1st)
• Big Chances created- 12(1st)
• Expected Assists- 6.25(1st)

Despite his excellent underlying data, he has been unlucky to just get 1 goal, 2 assists during this time. Bruno has created the chances, but it has not been finished. The return of Rashford could surely help. United are also up against teams- Bournemouth and Chelsea who have nothing to play for the remainder of the season which adds up to United and Bruno’s attacking potential. Maybe a Big Double Gameweek haul is cooking for Bruno Fernandes!

Further Read: FPL GW37 Tips & Preview – Breaking Down The Key Dilemmas

Julian Alvarez vs Chelsea(H), Brighton(A), £6.1m, TSB: 4.0%

Julian Alvarez has always been excellent whenever he has started for Man City this season. He has already registered 8 goals and made 3 assists this season from just 11 starts, in fact, his 6.68 points per 90 mins is the 7th best in the league.

Man City are competing in three competitions and rotation will be high and it’s most likely that Alvarez will not start both games. But with key players like Grealish, and KDB expected to be rested the chances of Alvarez playing around 120-150 minutes in FPL DGW37 are high and he could do a lot of damage. The versatility of Alvarez makes him a good minutes pick where he can operate in the positions of KDB, Gundogan, Haaland and even on the wings.

Alvarez along with Mahrez and Haaland are the only three Man City players to have started all of the last four league games for Man City during a period in which they have heavily rotated.

Alvarez also has an excellent matchup against Brighton with the seagulls conceding the majority of their chances through the middle. Brighton’s 25 chances conceded through their middle in the last six games is the 4th worst in the league and this is exactly where Alvarez will operate when City attack irrespective of where he starts.

Tip: If you have Watkins/Toney, a direct switch to Alvarez could work out really well for DGW37.

Further Read: FPL GW37 Scout Selection- Top Picks for Double Gameweek 37

Riyad Mahrez vs Chelsea(H), Brighton(A), £7.4m, TSB: 6.7%

Mahrez has always performed really well when given the opportunity to start. He almost averages a return every game he starts. Mahrez, in fact has the most assists(11) in the league since the World Cup break.

Mahrez has started all games from FPL GW34 and in the four games during the period he has registered five assists. No Man City player has played more minutes than Mahrez in the last four PL games which bodes well for his xMins. He also did not start against Real Madrid in the UCL 2nd leg fixture which is also the continuation of the trend of Mahrez starting from the bench in big games and playing from the beginning in non-big games.

Mahrez Stats per start since the World Cup break:

• Expected Goal Involvement– 0.5
• Goal Involvement– 0.93
• FPL Points– 5.93
• Key passes: 2.60
• Big Chances created: 0.53

Mahrez’s chance of starting against Chelsea in the first game of the double is very high and has a brilliant matchup against them. Chelsea have conceded more chances through their left flank(22 chances, 5th worst in the league during the period) in the last six games than other areas of the pitch. This is where Mahrez will operate giving him an excellent matchup!

Further Read: FPL DGW37 Man City Preview | Player-Wise Analysis & Thoughts

Julio Enciso vs Southampton(H), Manchester City(H), £4.6m, TSB: 1.9%

Coming in at just £4.6m, Enciso should be your forward differential pick if you want to change up your team structure. He is the budget pick with a good Double Gameweek and could start both the games as well. Enciso has played 453 minutes over the last 7 games averaging 64.7 minutes/game. March does not seem like returning in GW37 which only brings up his expected minutes ever more. Enciso could slot in as RW in March’s place/LW in Mitoma’s place in one of these games/play as a striker/take up role behind the striker. Basically, his ability to play anywhere in the front 4 boosts his expected minutes.

Enciso also got his rest in the second game of DGW36 coming on as a sub and putting an impressive display. So he is likely to start both the games in GW37 with the injuries in Brighton team

Over these 7 games, Enciso has 2 goals, 2 assists, and 29 FPL points. His underlying numbers have also been good across these 5 games- 18 Shots, 6 Big Chances Involvements, 2.39 xG, and 1.45 xA. He even Tops the Expected Goal Involvement among Brighton players- Even Better than the likes of Mitoma and Mac Allister.

Brighton attackers xGI over the last 7 games:

• Enciso- 3.8
• Mac Allister- 2.9
• Mitoma- 2.9
• Estupinan- 2.8
• Welbeck- 2.8

Brighton will be up against a Southampton side who are relegated rightly so- Winless since GW27 and have conceded 25 goals from 11 games(2nd Highest in the league). In the second game, Enciso and Brighton are against a City side who are likely to be crowned Champions before they play Brighton. This could mean City fielding a second string side with an eye on Cup finals which could work out well in Brighton’s favour on their quest for Europa league spot.

Further Read: FPL GW37 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More

Eberechi Eze vs Fulham(A), £5.6m, TSB: 7.5%

Roy Hodgson has made things clear ever since he took over in GW29- Making Eze a first-choice starter and also the focal point of their attacks. Since Roy took over, Eze has started 8/8 games and completed 90 minutes in all the games compared to just 1 start in 8 games before that. Eze has repaid his faith with 6 goals, 1 assist, and 60 points from these 8 games averaging 7.5 FPL points/game. Only Salah(8) has more Goals than Eze(6) among Midfielders during this time having played two games more than Eze.

Eze’s underlying numbers have also been good during this period- 22 shots, 13 Shots on Target, xGI- 4.5

Key Stats- Eze

Since GW29, Only Haaland(15) and Wilson(15) have more Shots on Target than Eze(13). This makes him on Top for Shots on Target among mids during the same period- Ahead of the likes of Salah, Rashford, Saka, etc.

With Zaha ruled out for GW37, Eze is expected to take up more attacking and goal scoring positions.

Matchup alert:

Fulham will be without Center back Ream for the Palace fixture. He is an integral part of Fulham defense and will be a huge miss. Ever since he got injured in GW34, Fulham have conceded 7.92 xG from 4 games and 10 Big Chances- Both 3rd and 4th worst in the league during this time.

Further Read: FPL GW37 Tips & Preview – Breaking Down The Key Dilemmas

FPL DGW37 Ultra Differential Pick(<1% Ownership)

Alejandro Garnacho vs Bournemouth(A), Chelsea(H), £4.1m, TSB: 0.9%

Man United’s new star, Alejandro Garnacho has had an excellent first season with the senior team and has been rightly rewarded with a new contract. He was out injured for a few games and Man United missed his spark and goal threat massively. Garnacho made his return from injury against Wolves and scored in his first game back with a great finish. He has scored or assisted five goals this season coming off the bench with no other PL player has more while coming off the bench.

Marcus Rashford who missed the Wolves games through injury was in training all week but has reported ill today which further increases the chances of Garnacho starting/playing more minutes in FPL DGW37.

In the last six games, Bournemouth have conceded 26 chances through their right flank(3rd worst in the league during the period) and this is where Garnacho will operate giving him an amazing matchup. The 87 crosses conceded by Bournemouth in the last six games through their right flank is also the most in the league.

Bournemouth have nothing to play for and have already avoided relegation whereas Man United and Garnacho are chasing champions league football for next season.

Garnacho might not get a lot of minutes, but he is an excellent enabler and Differential at just 4.1 million which can enable you to get other picks like Bruno/City mid/Alvarez for this week.

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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW37

Top FPL GW37 Differential Picks(<10% TSB) with Stats and Matchups
Top FPL Gameweek 37 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW37 Scout Selection- Top Picks for Double Gameweek 37
FPL GW37 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
FPL GW37 Tips & Preview – Breaking Down The Key Dilemmas
FPL DGW37 Man City Preview | Player-Wise Analysis & Thoughts
FPL GW37 Free Hit Guide- Players to Target and Best Drafts

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