DGW29 proved to be a high scoring one as expected with almost all popular captaincy options returning points in a similar range. Captaincy this week is quite tricky with Haaland who was injured for DGW29 now spotted back in team training and League leaders Arsenal traveling to Liverpool. Rashford at home is a safer alternative and Watkins also makes a good shout for captaincy this week along with the ever-reliable Brighton midfielders. Let’s look at the top FPL Gameweek 30 Captain Picks and see who topped the captaincy metrics this week.
The metrics had a 30/38 “returns record” last season and so far has a 23/28 “returns record” this season. Do follow the man behind the metrics @AK_FPL1(Do follow him on Twitter)
Note: “Returns” ~ player topping the metrics getting points returns and not necessarily the highest scoring option of the week. Metrics total points so far: 498 pts(24+10+12+34+34+18+12+46+12+4+6+26+14+10+2+26+12+10+16+34+40+20+4+4+8+22+14+24)
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FPL GW30 Captaincy Metrics
FPL GW30 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd
Haaland unsurprisingly emerges with the most votes in this week’s captaincy poll with his votes going up after it emerged that he was spotted in team training on Thursday. Watkins who has been consistent in the last few weeks is second in the poll this week and is a widely popular captaincy option after scoring in both the games in DGW29. Marcus Rashford is the third popular option with Kane and Mitoma completing the top five in this week’s captaincy poll.
The five players going into the metrics this week are: Haaland, Watkins, Rashford, Kane, and Mitoma.
Further Read: Best FPL GW30 Differential Picks (<10% TSB) to Consider
Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 30 Captain picks
The underlying numbers is topped this week by the in-form Ollie Watkins who has registered an xG of 4.83 in the last 6 games with 10 big chances and 16 shots inside the box. Harry Kane who has been ever-reliable this season is 2nd with an xG of 3.99. Haaland is only 3rd having registered an xG of 3.23 in his last six appearances in the Premier League.
Rashford is 4th an xG of 2.41, 7 big chances, and 11 shots inside the box in the last six games. Mitoma who has been sensational for Brighton since the FPL restart is first for chances created(11) but is last in terms of xG(1.37), although he has proven to convert low xG chances into goals in a regular fashion through his elite finishing which we seen in the last few months.
Latest on Haaland:
Haaland was spotted in full team training photos and videos posted by the official Man City account on Thursday.
Further Read: FPL Gameweek 30 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
Underlying Numbers of the Candidate’s Teams
Very rarely Man City fails to top the team stats but this time is one of those weeks with Brighton topping the table thanks to a whopping team xG of 15.56 in the last six games which is higher than that of Man City(13.10).
Aston Villa who have been excellent under Emery are 3rd with an xG of 10.31 ahead of Man United (8.89) and Spurs(9.26).
Further Read: FPL GW30 Tips & Preview – Breaking Down The Key Dilemmas
Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW30
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.
We will use Drafthound’s odds for a Team scoring at least one goal in the Gameweek and the Odds of Scoring more than 2.0 goals in the Gameweek as a whole.
Man City’s fixture against Southampton is the best based on odds this week with the Blues having a 90% chance of scoring at least one goal and a 48% chance of scoring 2+ goals.
Man United’s home game against Everton is 2nd in terms of favorable fixture based on odds with an 85% chance of scoring at least one goal and a 36% chance of scoring 2+ goals.
Aston Villa and Watkins are not far behind Man United with an 80% chance of scoring at least one goal and a 29% chance of scoring 2+ goals against Forest at home.
Spurs and Brighton who face each other in FPL GW30 have exact identical odds!
Further Read: FPL Gameweek 30 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 30 Captain Picks
In the Fourth Phase of the article, I have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week. I have then averaged the Two Ranks to churn out the Average Rank Factor, which I have used to determine the Safest yet Explosive option.
Haaland tops the returns odds with a 68% anytime returns odds. He’s projected to score 7.0 points with an xMins of 86 in GW30 which is the 2nd highest only behind Rashford. Watkins is 2nd for any-time return odds with a 67% chance of anytime returns and 3rd for projected points with 6.9 projected points.
Rashford tops the points prediction for this week with 7.5 predicted points and has a 66% anytime returns odds. Kane is 4th a 61% odds of anytime returns and 6.3 predicted points. Mitoma is last amongst the five candidates with a 39% anytime return odds and a points projection of 4.3.
Further Read: FPL Gameweek 30 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 30 Captaincy metric analysis
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). The Candidate having the lowest Cumulative Rank Factor is the most ideal Captaincy Option according to this metric.
Haaland tops the metrics with a Cumulative Rank Factor of only 7. Watkins is 3rd with a CRF of 10.
Rashford and Kane are 4th with a CRF of 14 and Mitoma is last with a CRF of 15.
Update: Why did the metrics change?
The change was due to the FFHUB point projection for Haaland going from 5.5 points with an xMins of 65 in GW30 to 7.0 points with an xMins projection of 86 mins at the last minute. We are extremely sorry for the last-minute update and we’ll look to avoid such complications in the upcoming gameweeks.
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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW30
Confirmed & Likely FPL Double Gameweeks From FPL GW30
FPL GW30 Scout Picks- Stats & Justification for each player picked
Top FPL Gameweek 30 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
Best FPL GW30 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline(<10% TSB)
FPL GW30 Predicted Lineups, Injury/Press Conference Updates
FPL Gameweek 30 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
FPL GW30 Tips & Preview – Breaking Down The Key Dilemmas
FPL GW30 Wildcard Team & Drafts to Consider | Wildcard Guide
FPL Chip Strategy Guide with Key Notes for All The Chips
FPL GW30 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
FPL Gameweek 30 Preview Video
If you prefer video content, here’s our FPL GW30 video covering GW29 key talking points, Players to Target for GW30, Grealish – player in focus, Watkins as a captaincy option, Latest on Brighton, Captaincy debate, and more. Timestamps are added for easy viewing as well!
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