Welcome to our FPL Gameweek 17 captain picks and metrics blog. With a short turnaround this time we quickly take a look at the key numbers and if Salah is beaten in our metric or not?
Diogo Jota looks close to claiming the top spot for a few weeks and let’s see if it’s Jota or Salah or maybe even Bernardo Silva can give Salah a tough run?
Link to all our FPL Gameweek 17 blogs. Our blogs cover a wide range of topics including differentials, review and analysis of the previous week matches, transfer trends, transfer tips, injury news, postponements and much more.
FPL GW17 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd
[Total_Soft_Poll id=”26″]
Further Read: FPL GW17 Differential Picks to Consider | FPL GW17 Preview
Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 17 Captain picks
| (C)andidate | Shots Inside The Box | Chances Created | Big Chances Total | Expected Goals (xG) | Player’s Attack Rank |
| Salah | 19 | 9 | 6 | 3.83 | 2 |
| Jota | 18 | 7 | 9 | 3.86 | 1 |
| Trent | 5 | 18 | 0 | 0.57 | 5 |
| Bernardo Silva | 12 | 10 | 4 | 2.8 | 3 |
| Foden* | 6 | 8 | 1 | 0.72 | 4 |
Foden played far fewer mins compared to the rest
The players data has been very tight and Jota just beats out Salah to top the Player’s attack rank. Salah(19) just edges teammate Jota(18) for shots inside the box with Jota(3.86) marginally edging out Salah(3.83) for expected goals(xG). Bernado Silva has also has accumulated a decent xG of 2.8 over the past 6 Gameweeks.
Coming to big chances, Jota has 9 big chances compared to Salah’s 6 despite playing just 430 minutes(1 sub appearance) compared to Salah’s 540 minutes over the past 6 Gameweeks. With Jota coming on as a sub against Villa, he should be right back in the starting eleven and should be among the minutes. This raises the stakes for a Jota over Salah Captaincy choice for FPL GW17.
Further Read: FPL GW17 Differential Picks to Consider | FPL GW17 Preview
Underlying Numbers of the Candidates Teams
| (C)andidate | Shots Inside The Box | Big Chances Total | Expected Goals (xG) | Team’s Attack Rank |
| Liverpool (Salah) | 81 | 23 | 14.8 | 3 |
| Liverpool(Jota) | 81 | 23 | 14.8 | 3 |
| Liverpool(TAA) | 81 | 23 | 14.8 | 3 |
| Man City(B Silva) | 85 | 20 | 15.90 | 1 |
| Man City(Foden) | 85 | 20 | 15.9 | 1 |
With just City and Liverpool players competing in the Captaincy Metrics for this week, there isn’t much to separate them in terms of numbers. City edge past Liverpool in terms of Shots inside the box(85 vs 81), xG(15.9 vs 14.8) while Liverpool close out City in terms of total big chances(23 vs 20).
Further Read: FPL GW17 Differential Picks to Consider | FPL GW17 Preview
Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW17
| (C)andidate | Drafthound Clean Sheet Odds | Drafthound Odds of Conceding >2.5 Goals | Safety Rank | Explosion Rank | Average Factor of Safety Rank and Explosion Rank | Fixture Difficulty Rank |
| Newcastle(vs Salah) | 6% | 50% | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Newcastle(vs Jota) | 6% | 50% | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Newcastle (vs Trent) | 6% | 50% | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Leeds (vs B Silva) | 7% | 54% | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Leeds (vs Foden) | 7% | 54% | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates. We have used Drafthound’s Clean Sheet odds and the Odds of Conceding more than 2.5 goals. You can check out the same as well for free on Drafthound along with fixture analysis, predicted analysis, and more.
Both Leeds and Newcastle have projected to have the lowest chance of a cleansheet in FPL Gameweek 17 which is due to the fact that they are up against Manchester City and Liverpool which further suggests going with Liverpool/City asset as captain. Leeds have 7% chances of a clean sheet while Newcastle have just 6% chances of a clean sheet.
Man City also have the highest odds of scoring over 2.5+ goals making them number one in terms of easier fixture difficulty with 54% projection of getting 2.5+ goals. Liverpool are second with a 50% projection of scoring more than 2.5+ goals. This means that both the fixtures are equally good and we can’t just separate them yet!
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 17 Captain Picks
| (C)andidate | Anytime Returns (FFHUB Tool) | Projected Points (FFHUB) | Safety Ranking | Explosion Rank | Average Rank Factor | Safety + Explosion Rank |
| Salah | 80% | 9.7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Jota | 70% | 6.6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Trent Alexander Arnold | 79% | 7.3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Bernardo Silva | 44% | 5.3 | 5 | 4 | 4.5 | 4 |
| Foden | 57% | 5.1 | 4 | 5 | 4.5 | 4 |
In the Fourth Phase of the article, We have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.
Salah(80% chances for anytime returns) just edges out teammate Trent Alexander Arnold(79% chances for return as per Projected Points tool from Fantasy Football Hub. Trent(7.3) once again edges out Jota(6.6), Silva(5.3) and Foden(5.1) for Projected points for FPL Gameweek 17. He is still far behind the main man Salah who has a 9.7 projected FPL points for this week. Salah finishes on top for Safety Rank and Explosion Rank while Trent finishing second for both.
Further Read: FPL GW17 Differential Picks to Consider | FPL GW17 Preview
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 17 Captaincy metric analysis
| (C)andidate | Player’s Attack Rank | Team’s Attack Rank | Favourable Fixture Rank | Safety + Explosion Projections Rank | Cumulative Rank Factor |
| Salah | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| Jota | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 |
| Trent Alexander Arnold | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| Bernardo Silva | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| Foden | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). The Candidate having the lowest Cumulative Rank Factor is the most ideal Captaincy Option according to this metric.
Salah consistently finishing second in all the metrics and topping the safety and explosion rank means he marginally beats Jota(8) and finishes with a CRF of 7. The safety and explosion rank of three for Jota really pushed him out of topping the metrics this week. But Jota out performing Salah in the player’s attack rank is still a commendable effort. Bernardo Silva is not far behind finishes third with a CRF of 9 while Foden and Trent Alexander Arnold complete the top 5.
Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 17:
FPL GW17 Differential Picks to Consider | FPL GW17 Preview
FPL GW17 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Trends and Captaincy
FPL GW16 Fixture Wise Review | Players that Caught our Eye
FPL GW16 Saturday Fixture Wise Review and Players who Caught our Eyes
What is FPL CUP? What are the rules? How to win the 2021/22 FPL CUP?
2021/22 FPL Chip Strategy: What to do with the Elusive Boosts
We have also made an elaborate guide covering every rule and chip available in FPL for the 2021/22 FPL Season ~ 2021/22 Fantasy Premier League Season Rules, Tips | The Ultimate Guide
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Srinivasan S
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