FPL GW3 Fixture Wise Stats Review | Key FPL Stats that Caught our Eye

In this stats review of Sunday’s games, FPL GW3 fixtures we’ll take a brief look at how the teams set up and how the game shaped up along with highlighting some key takeaways from individual player performances from a Fantasy Premier League point of view, backed up by underlying numbers and any relevant additional charts that might be thought-provoking. Feel free to check out all our FPL Gameweek 4 blogs here for free.

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KEY:
xG = Expected goal, a value assigned to a shot that determines the probability of that shot being scored from a large sample.
xA = Expected assist, a value assigned to the probability that a given chance created would be scored, from a large sample.
xGI = Expected Goal Involvement, the sum of xG and xA for a player.
Value in brackets besides team name = xG total for that team in the given game.

FPL GW3 Fixture Wise Review

Wolves (2.25) 0 – 1 (0.58) Manchester United

Manchester United ground out a difficult win in a game where they were second best for large periods, away at Molineux. Wolves continued with their 3-4-3 system while Manchester United changed up to a 4-2-3-1 with Paul Pogba playing a deeper role in the midfield pivot partnered by Fred as Jadon Sancho got his first league start as a left-winger and Mason Greenwood led the line.

A change possibly necessitated by the injury to Scott McTominay or in preparation for fitting in the plethora of attacking talent that will be available to Solksjaer (they signed a prominent forward recently, you might’ve heard about it), United struggled to get a foothold in the game with the pivot of Pogba and Fred. Neves was able to dictate the game as Fred failed to provide much protection at all, a necessity for the role of partnering Pogba deep that would allow him to be his talented self on the ball. Wolves cut their way through the midfield all too easily in the first half and threatened the penalty box consistently, shaping into almost a 4-2-4 at times in possession in the final third with Semedo joining in with the attack to provide width while Trincao and Traore played closer to Jimenez.

As has been the story of their season thus far, they failed to capitalize on all their final third penetration and ascendancy with Traore looking utterly unplayable at times but frustratingly failing to find a shot or final pass in decisive moments. Manchester United, for their part, were rocked and failed to take hold of possession and build any sustained moves all half – still had their moments with Greenwood flashing a chance wide and Bruno running in-behind onto a terrific Pogba ball from deep and beating the keeper only for the offside flag to be raised. They improved in the second half. An early substitution bringing on Cavani for Daniel James served to push Greenwood out right where he looked bright and threatening, constantly trying to run at his man and gave them some attacking impetus that was sorely lacked in the first half.

Ultimately, it was Greenwood who picked up possession wide right, took on his man and drilled a low shot that Jose Sa will be disappointed not to have saved, that proved the difference. While Jadon Sancho failed to influence proceedings entirely before being subbed off, it was another summer signing making his first league start, Raphael Varane who impressed. Fortuitous assist aside, he showed intelligence on and off the ball in an assured display and while it’s strange to say this in a game where they conceded over 2 xG, owners of United defense will have been encouraged to see his performance.

Wolves were the better team for long parts of the game and continue to impress on eye test and with their underlying numbers but Bruno Lage will hope they can start turning the tide on a 5.4 xG delta (0 goals scored) soon. They now embark on a kind run of fixtures and could provide strong value if only they can start producing results akin to their performances.

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Individual Player Key points

Bruno Fernandes (12.1, MID) has been a hot topic for FPL managers with the elite point scorer potentially about to lose penalty duty to Cristiano Ronaldo and discussion remains as to if his output can continue to justify the top tier pricing without a healthy source of his points. Bruno had a relatively quiet showing by his lofty standards. While he did score a goal ruled offside running in behind the defense, he had 3 shots but only 1 in the box and created a solitary chance with 0 big chance involvement ending with an xG of 0.16 and an xGI of 0.32. He did however have 7 penalty area touches, the highest in the game, so its not all bad news but at a price of 12.1, questions will have to be asked.

Mason Greenwood (7.6, MID) continued his fine run of form and encouragingly for owners, looked arguably more threatening when shifted to right-winger than when playing center-forward (a spot we’d expect Ronaldo to claim). Even though his goal came from a poor piece of goalkeeping, he produced 3 shots, all from in the box including a big chance, and created 2 chances with an xG 0.29 and xGI of 0.35 amassing 6 penalty area touches. Even though Manchester United are blessed with an abundance of attacking options, his recent performances and versatility have rendered him arguably undroppable for the next few games.

Paul Pogba (7.7, MID) started in a deeper role which might be a sign of things to come, much to the worry of his FPL ownership, as he had a single shot, taken from inside the box, created 1 chance, and had just the 1 penalty box touch with an xGI of 0.26 made up in big measure by an xA of 0.23. He did produce a sensational long ball ‘assist’ to an offside goal but it’s clear that his impact to point avenues are heavily diminished playing deeper versus the inside left attacking midfielder role he occupied in the first two games.

Jimenez (7.4, FWD) put up stellar underlying numbers yet again despite failing to have any points to show for it. He took a game-high 4 shots, 3 in the box, and created 3 chances however with no ‘big chance’ involvement, he ended with an xG of 0.30 and xA of 0.22.

Adama Traore (6.0, MID) was electric again but fell short in the quality of his end product. 2 shots, none in the box, and 4 chances created, 1 of them a big chance, towards an xGI of 0.33 but a modest xG of just 0.08. He started on the left-wing before being moved to the right and eventually being subbed off – his heat map reflects his involvement with the ball in dangerous areas all across the attacking third.

Trincao (5.9, MID) similarly flattered to deceive but it was due to his failure to convert his chances, he had an impressive 3 shots all from inside the box and 1 big chance for a game-high xGI of 0.93 encouragingly constituted mainly of an xG of 0.9.

While Nelson Semedo (5.0, DEF) took up positions high and wide in attacking moves and Marcal (4.5, DEF) does play as a wing-back though relatively more conservative than Semedo, it was Romain Saiss (5.0, DEF) who caught the eye. He should’ve put Wolves ahead when a rebound from his shot fell to him again and he was denied by a stunning reflex save from De Gea – that sequence of actions giving him 2 shots in the box, 1 big chance, and an xG of 0.86.

Investment in Wolves players doesn’t look a priority right now with premium striker options emerging as well as some South American players potentially at risk of missing GW4 however they have a kind run of fixtures and if they begin to translate their performances to points, jumping on their kindly priced assets early could be very rewarding.

Tottenham Hotspurs (1.03) 1 – 0 (0.76) Watford

Having announced his commitment to Tottenham this season, Harry Kane made his first start of the season leading the line for Spurs subsequently pushing Son away from the striker position to a rather intriguing right-wing start. Bergwijn started on the left wing while Dele Alli, more advanced, and Hojbjerg took up central midfield positions on either side of Skipp. Watford handed a start to Joshua King at CF who came deep to link up play with Dennis and Sarr on the flanks looking to make runs off him into dangerous areas. Moussa Sissoko was instantly handed a start against his former club. It was a relatively dull game which yielded a total of 0 big chances across the board.

Son interestingly took up positions on the right-wing from the start and failed to get into dangerous areas however he continues to be on most indirect set pieces and it was one of these – a free-kick out wide – that beat everybody and the keeper to fortuitously end up in the back of the net. Dele Alli showed industry combined with intelligent runs off the ball and shot narrowly wide from a Kane cutback. Harry Kane created chances and linked up play in his signature style and went close with a snapshot at goal, well saved by Bachmann, but failed to impact the game as he would’ve liked. A prominent change from their opening 2 games was advanced positions taken up by both fullbacks, Reguillon and Tanganga. Watford were resolute at the back and threatened mainly via their inside wingers cutting in to create or shoot at goal. Sarr looked lively again.

Individual Player Key points

Son (10.1, MID) started the game on the right-wing, as mentioned before, while eventually moving over to the left however this may have led to a reduction in his direct goal threat. He was on all indirect set plays including wide free-kicks and corners which allow his avenue to points to remain healthy as his 3 shots, 1 in the box, 2 key passes, and 9 penalty area touches look stronger than the eye test would suggest. However, in line with expectations from watching the game, he had a fairly low xG of 0.10 with an xGI of 0.35. Average position above shows him furthest forward and central which might lead to a conclusion that he played like a center-forward however as his heat map below shows, this is because he took up positions high but wide on both the right flank as well as the left resulting in a positionally ‘central’ average.

Harry Kane (12.3, FWD) showed glimpses of what he can do but ultimately failed to impact the game by his standards. He had a single shot, taken in the box, and created 3 chances for an xGI of 0.33 with an xG of 0.10.

Dele Alli (6.5, MID) flashed a shot narrowly wide and shows decent goal threat but little in the way of creativity. He had 2 shots, 1 in the box, and created 0 chances.

Even though Reguilon (5.0, DEF) took home 3 Bonus points, it was Tanganga (4.5, DEF) who impressed by the numbers. His heat map below suggests he played further forward than in previous games and got into good positions, notching up 4 penalty box touches, 1 shot in the box, and 2 key passes to an impressive xGI of 0.35 with xG of 0.17.

Sarr (6.0, MID) looked threatening for Watford again. He had 3 shots with a game-high 3 from inside the box, created 2 chances and a healthy 6 penalty box touches making runs off Josh King, and showing direct running when receiving the ball in the right channel.

Another intriguing performance from an FPL perspective was from Moussa Sissoko (4.5, MID) creating 2 chances and having a game-high xA of 0.57 – he could emerge as yet another promising 4.5 MID option in a season where we seem to have a surprisingly high number of them.

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Burnley (1.50) 1 – 1 (1.53) Leeds United

Marcelo Bielsa rolled out his customary 3-3-3-1 setup when facing a 2 man strike force with Ayling and Dallas as ‘wing backs’ and Harrison Rodrigo and Raphinha lining up behind Patrick Bamford. Burnley, true to form, set up as a 4-4-2 with Ashley Barnes partnering Chris Wood up top and pre-season bandwagon Brownhill getting a start. While not champagne football, the game was one of high intensity with rough tackles flying about and two teams with very different styles putting up a thoroughly interesting contest. Both teams had been in the top 3 for shots on goal conceded in their opening 2 fixtures but it took a while before either goalkeeper was truly tested.

Ashley Barnes was a real menace putting himself about and was probably fortunate to only see yellow for a reckless challenge in the first half while strike partner Chris Wood had some joy against the Leeds defense. Raphinha had Leeds’ best chance of the half running onto a nice sequence of play before driving his low shot wide of the post when he’ll have felt like he should’ve at least tested the keeper.

Leeds’ frailties from set-pieces came to the fore when James Tarkowski hit the post from a towering header and they failed to clear their lines before a Lowton shot was directed past Meslier from close range by a deft poachers touch from Chris Wood. Leeds kept on pushing for an equalizer and got their reward late on when a similarly predatorial position from Bamford was rewarded as the ball broke to him to draw the scores level and salvage a point for Leeds.

Individual Player Key stats

Chris Wood (6.9, FWD) enjoyed a good outing against Leeds, the striker notching 3 shots, all in the box, 2 Big Chances, and 3 Key Passes en route a Sunday-high xG of 1.1 and xGI of 1.2. Consistent without being reliably explosive, I’d expect Chris Wood to keep on ticking over but he remains under the radar as mid-priced FWDs have made a strong start to the campaign.

Patrick Bamford (7.9, FWD) picking up where he left off last year notching up strong underlying metrics. The Leeds striker had 3 shots, all in the box and 1 Big Chance with 10 penalty box touches, a game-high, taking him to a strong xG of 0.97 and xGI of 1.09. Leeds have Liverpool up next and while they’ve shown themselves capable of scoring against anyone, it’s the run of games after that which make Bamford a great contender for a forward spot in our teams.

Raphinha (6.5, MID) and Jack Harrison (5.9, MID) endured frustrating afternoons at Turf Moor. Raphinha had 3 shots, 1 in the box and 1 big chance along with 2 key passes to an xGI of 0.58 and xG of 0.3 for the game. The ‘big chance’ was put just wide of the post by him and he’s now missed 5 of the last 6 big chances that have come his way, a pattern that if he began to rectify he’d be one of the best value assets in the game. Harrison had 1 shot, taken in the box and 4 key passes but his shot and chances created were from low probability areas as reflected by a measly xGI of 0.08 for the Englishman.

Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 4:

2021/22 FPL Chip Strategy: What to do with the Elusive Boosts
Fixture Analysis For Optimal Wildcard Strategy | FPL 2021/22 Season

We have also made an elaborate guide covering every rule and chip available in FPL for the 2021/22 FPL Season ~ 2021/22 Fantasy Premier League Season Rules, Tips | The Ultimate Guide

Check out our Rules and Basics Guide, FPL Chip Strategy, FPL Chips, FPL Team reveals, FPL History, team reveals, FPL Tools here.

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