Man City FPL Preview | Fixture Analysis, Pep Rotation, and Key FPL Assets

Manchester City – one of the best attacking and defensive sides in the Prem, riddled by the bald fraudulence of Sir Josep Guardiola. Although City have consistently been one of the best offensive and defensive sides in the Prem since Guardiola took over, the squad does not always produce great FPL assets. From an FPL perspective, Man City FPL assets can be incredibly frustrating. Over Guardiola’s tenure, he has drawn the label of “the bald fraud” from FPL managers. Many have experienced a time when they bring in a City asset, attempting to predict the rotation of Guardiola,  only to be let down when their chosen asset gets benched. If the City squad was similar in rotation to  Leeds or Aston Villa, I have no doubt that managers would consistently have 2-3 City assets in their squad; but that is just not realistic. So how should we approach City when it comes to FPL? Where is the value in our revolving door of a squad? What is the best approach to Pep’s rotation? 

Man City 2021/22 FPL Preview

• My perspective on approaching Pep’s rotation 
• My thoughts on our opening fixtures 
• Analysisand rankings for every main player, by position 

Approaching Pep’s Rotation as an FPL Manager

Last season, there were only four players to play >2,500 minutes for City in the Premier  League: Ederson (3,240 mins), Dias (2,843 mins), Rodri (2,748 mins), and Sterling (2,536 mins).  KDB’s month-long hamstring injury hindered his minutes played, but other than these 5, the squad faced heavy rotation – 7 players played between 1,900 and 2,300 minutes and 5 others played between  1,100 and 1,700 minutes (FBref).  

Manchester City Player Minutes (20/21 FPL season, from FBref) 

1. Ederson – 3,240 minutes 
2. Dias – 2,843 minutes 
3. Rodri – 2,748 minutes 
4. Sterling – 2,536 minutes 
5. Cancelo – 2,299 minutes 
6. Bernardo – 2,065 minutes 
7. Jesus – 2,063 minutes 
8. Gundogan – 2,029 minutes 
9. De Bruyne – 1,997 minutes 
10. Mahrez – 1,949 minutes
11. Walker – 1,946 minutes 
12. Stones – 1,933 minutes 
13. Foden – 1,616 minutes 
14. Zinchenko – 1,478 minutes 
15. Laporte – 1,344 minutes 
16. Torres – 1,306 minutes 
17. Fernandinho – 1,188 minutes 
18. Mendy – 953 minutes 
19. Ake – 797 minutes 
20. Aguero – 559 minutes 

City used a main squad (>1,000 mins played) of 16 outfielders; in comparison, Man United had 15  players >1,000 minutes and Liverpool had 14. However, both Man United and Liverpool had three outfield players >3,000 minutes (Fernandes, Wan-Bissaka, Maguire and Robertson, Salah, and Alexander Arnold). This is the main factor when understanding City assets—there are few outfield players who we can expect to play >3,000 mins. The one exception will be Ruben Dias, as his transfer was finalized almost two months into last season. I will touch on this more in the Defenders section, but other than  Ruben we must expect rotation with the squad. 

Avoiding Substitutions 

The other factor that should be understood in an FPL sense is which players avoid substitutions. If a player is in your starting XI, you want them to play 0 minutes if they do not play 60- 90 minutes. When a player subs on for the last 20-30 minutes of the game it kills their chances of scoring FPL points, most likely resulting in a 1-point game. If a player does not feature, you can cover their starting spot with a substitution. 

Excluding Ederson, Rodri, and Dias, there were 11 outfield players from City with >1,500 minutes last season. When selecting any of these players for an FPL squad, we should understand exactly what to expect from their rotation—are they a player who will be subbed on when they do not start? 

Manchester City Sub-ins 20/21 (FBref) 

1. Foden – 11 sub-ins 
2. Jesus – 7 sub-ins 
3. Gundogan – 5 sub-ins 
4. Mahrez – 4 sub-ins 
5. Sterling – 3 sub-ins
6. Bernardo – 2 sub-ins
7. De Bruyne – 2 sub-ins 
8. Walker – 2 sub-ins 
9. Cancelo – 1 sub-in 
10. Stones – 0 sub-ins 

Out of these players, the ones with 3 or less substitutions can be comfortable to own so long as you have a playing bench. With adequate depth, you can make the most of assets like Stones and  Cancelo. However, players like Foden and Jesus should be avoided. While Foden’s role may change a  bit this season, last season he was often the one to come on late and change the game. Jesus was deployed similarly, as a flex player who can sub in for any of the front three positions. The others must be approached on a case-by-case basis and may be frustrating to own at times. 

Man City Early Season FPL Fixtures 

The early season fixture list for Man City is mixed, with four of the traditional top six in the first seven games plus Leicester. However, in the first ten games, City play four of last season’s bottom half and one promoted side in Norwich. Your approach to City assets should depend on your  approach to the first wildcard and transfers in general: 

– If you are aiming to wildcard around gameweeks 3-4, then City assets should be heavily  considered, as you could avoid the Chelsea/Liverpool fixtures with the wildcard – If you are aiming to wildcard around gameweeks 7-8, you could avoid City to start and then  aim to bring in some assets with the wildcard 

– If you want to keep your wildcard as long as possible, you could bring in a City asset to hold  (and possibly rotate) 

OR 

you could aim to transfer them in when the fixtures turn in Gameweek 8. 

Man City Goalkeeper + Defenders to Consider in FPL with Rating

Dias (6.0 m) – 9/10 

Ruben Dias is the rock of the City defense. Unless injured, he will feature in 90-95% of City games this season. As Ruben does not offer much goal threat, picking him as an FPL asset is picking  City clean sheets. You can expect most of his games to result in either 2 points or 6 points, with a  yellow card or bonus points here and there. Against last season’s top-5, City failed to keep a clean sheet in 7 of the 10 games.

In the other 28 games, City kept 16 clean sheets. One approach to Ruben would be to seek rotation and bench him against the fiery attacks – the rest of the top-6 and Leeds (City failed to keep a clean sheet against Leeds in both games last season). In that case, you may want to avoid 

Ruben for the first 7 games, but after that, he will be one of the best value defenders in the game. If he fits into your squad at the 6.0 m price point, he is a great season-long selection. 

Stones (5.5 m) – 9/10 

Ruben Dias is a nailed-on City defender priced at 6.0 m and somehow John Stones may be the better FPL asset. Although prone to rotation, Stones is not a player who will be subbed on. So long as you have adequate bench cover, Stones will be an extremely valuable FPL asset. Last season, he earned  5.82 points/appearance whereas Ruben only scored 4.44 points/appearance.

He is much more of an aerial threat; although both him and Ruben attack the box for set pieces, Stones is a better attacker of the ball in the air. As well, his performance over the past season should only further cement his place in the starting XI; I would expect his number of appearances to increase. At 5.5 m, a City defender whose only downfall is rotation is a bargain unless you do not provide adequate bench cover. My only fear is that Ruben/Stones is the preferred combination for big games and therefore Stones misses out on some of the easier clean sheets. 

Cancelo (6.0 m) – 8.5/10 

Cancelo is in a similar situation to Stones, as he will face rotation but not get subbed in when he is benched. Having a solid bench is necessary to include Cancelo in your squad, whereas Ruben does not need any bench cover for the same 6.0 m price tag. My initial thought on Cancelo was that he could be a bargain, given that Pep seems to opt for Walker at right back in the bigger games.

However,  this was not supported by the rotation of last season, as Cancelo played in 8 out of the 10 games against the other top six teams. Unless Pep opts for a combination of Walker-Zinchenko in the big games, Cancelo gets an even distribution of fixture difficulty. Even then, his ability to push up the field, come into midfield, and take shots on from outside the box will result in several attacking returns throughout the season. At 6.0 m I think he is fairly priced and could offer great value when paired with the right 4.5 m defender for rotation. 

Ederson (6.0 m) – 5/10 

At 6.0 m, Ederson is not much of an FPL option. Spending that much on a keeper is typically a no-go, as assets 1.0-1.5 m cheaper will often get within 20 points of even the most consistent premium keepers. Ederson will offer consistency, a high number of clean sheets, and the odd assist here and there. However, he does not get many saves and rarely gets bonus points. Ederson will provide consistent value but at 6.0 m, your money is better spent elsewhere generally.

Walker (5.5 m) – 4/10 

Walker is a tricky pick when it comes to FPL, he is a bit of a paradox. Last season, he faced about the same amount of rotation as Stones, with only two more substitute appearances. However,  despite playing in a more attacking role, he ended with 37 fewer points. Walker is often selected for the big games, facing rotation in some of the easier fixtures. Even when he gets the nod in the easy fixtures,  City seems to concede.

This includes a 1-1 draw with West Ham, 3-1 win over Everton, 2-1 win over  West Ham, 4-1 win over Wolves, 5-2 win over Southampton, 2-1 win over Villa, and 4-3 win over  Newcastle. While he may be touted as the defensively solid fullback in City’s squad, last season’s results would disagree. Perhaps Walker was just unlucky last season, but it seems that City are just more vulnerable to conceding when he plays. At 5.5 m, Stones is a much better FPL option simply because when he plays, the City defense is notably better.  

Zinchenko (5.5 m) – 4/10, Wait and See 

Zinchenko has a very similar FPL output to Walker, at 3.45 pts/appearance and 3.75  pts/appearance, respectively. Similarly, the City defense is touted as being more solid when Zinchenko features, but this reputation has not translated to FPL points.

The only factor that could change  Zinchenko’s value in FPL is his use by Pep. His performances near the back end of last season were spectacular and he has developed into the first-choice left-back. While he may be the first choice left-back, Cancelo and Mendy will certainly still rotate into that spot at times. At 5.5 m, he is a wait-and-see but will most likely not be nearly as good a pick as Stones. 

Man City Midfielders to Consider in FPL with Rating

De Bruyne(12.0 m) – 8.5/10 

There are not enough adjectives to describe this man in real life. Simply one of the best midfielders the Premier League has ever seen, KDB is in a class of his own. His expected goal contributions are the highest in the league. The only thing stopping those stats from translating to returns are his injuries and a lack of finishing from teammates. When healthy, KDB is one of the best assets in FPL. Regardless of City signing a striker, he will continue to live up to his premium value.  With a new number 9, KDB will have a target for his crosses and through-balls, which could benefit his FPL output.

Without a new number 9, we can expect him to be deployed as a false-9 often,  pushing higher up the pitch as City’s main outlet for goals. The only consideration when it comes to  KDB is a comparison to the other premiums. Most of us will only have two of Salah, KDB, Bruno,  and Kane.

While KDB is certainly amongst these assets, his injury history may persuade you to stay away. As well, he is probably not on penalties like the other three. While he has taken some in the past,  Mahrez seems to be the chosen penalty taker at the moment. If we find out KDB is on penalties, and he can avoid injury, he could be better valued than Bruno and Kane. 

Mahrez (9.0 m) – 7.5/10 

Mahrez is possibly the most exciting FPL asset when it comes to City. After KDB, I would say  Mahrez is the second most skilled footballer in the City squad. What he can do with the ball, taking on opponents and changing the game by himself, is a quality that not many footballers have. This past season, he broke into the first choice XI and did not make it much of a conversation. He made the right-wing position his own and it would be hard to fathom anyone taking that spot from him. As well, he should be on penalties to start the season. However, like most first-choice City players he will face rotation once the UCL games start. As well, he is one of the players who will be subbed in sometimes, which can be frustrating if you own him in FPL. At 9.0 m, I think Mahrez could perform to the level of the premium assets, but only if he gets the minutes to do so. Given the rotation he is most likely to face, he is a risky pick – there will be times during the season when he is amazing value and times during the season when he is poor value. The start of the season could be one stint of solid minutes for Mahrez with others returning from international duties later and a spread-out schedule. 

Sterling (11.0 m) – 6/10 

Off the back of an outstanding Euro’s campaign, Sterling will look to carry his form into the  21/22 Prem season. Surprising to some, Sterling was in City’s top 5 for minutes played in the Prem last season. However, this is not necessarily a great indicator of what will happen this upcoming season.  Last season, Sterling was not in the first choice starting XI and he missed out on many of the big UCL  games. Due to this, he was rotated into the Premier League games when the fixture schedule got busy.  This season, I would expect Sterling to break back into the first-choice XI and therefore his Premier  League minutes should decrease. At 11.0 m, he has the talent to potentially challenge the premiums for value, but the odds of that given Pep’s rotation tendencies is slim. 

Ferran (7.0 m)– 6/10, Wait and See 

The player from City with the greatest potential as an FPL asset is Ferran Torres. Signed in early August last year, Ferran’s introduction to the Prem was promising—he scored 7 goals and 2  assists in just over 1,300 minutes. At just 21 years old, he is a player with unlimited potential. He can play both on the wing and centrally as a number 9. Should City fail to sign a striker before the end of the transfer window, I would expect Ferran to be the go-to man up top.

His one downfall along with minutes played is that he was used as an impact player off the bench, just like Foden. Last season, 9 of his 24 appearances were off the bench. However, if he blossoms into this role and can get over 2,000  minutes (2,500+ ideally), he will be an absolute bargain at 7.0 m. With City’s tough fixtures to begin,  it is the perfect opportunity to wait and see what happens with his role in the squad. 

Gundogan (7.5 m) – 4/10 

An FPL favorite and the highest-scoring outfield player for Man City last season, Gundogan has been priced at 7.5 m for the 21/22 season. His explosive stint last season came during the injury to  KDB, when he was pushed up the field to play a more creative role. In this role, Gundogan thrived, but it is not his typical positioning in Pep’s system. Typically, Gundogan plays as a box-to-box 8, where he gets some opportunities to score but is generally a deep-lying facilitator. As well, he faces both rotation and substitution issues that diminish his value as an FPL asset. While the squad is healthy and in the case that City purchase a new striker, Gundogan is one to be avoided. At 7.5 m, the likes of  Greenwood, Jota, Mount are far more attacking players than Gundogan’s typical role. Should we see  Gundogan move into a 10 or false-9 role, he is one to consider, but until then there are better midfield options elsewhere. 

Foden (8.0 m) – 4/10, Wait and See 

Disappointingly, Phil Foden’s role in the Man City squad does not translate to a great FPL  asset. Last season, he was subbed in a staggering 11 times. While he did start 17 games, those 11  substitutions are not something you want to see from an FPL perspective. At 8.0 m, that money is better spent elsewhere should Foden continue to serve this role in the squad. However, there is the possibility that Foden’s role changes. As a young and emerging talent, Foden’s minutes have increased each of the past three seasons—from 335 mins in 18/19 to 901 mins in 19/20 to 1,616 mins last season. If his minutes increase again, into the 2,000+ range, and his substitutions decrease, he could be an amazing FPL asset. For the time being, Foden is a wait-and-see to determine if his role in the squad will change significantly. 

Bernardo (7.0 m) – 3.5/10 

Bernardo is a player who avoids a lot of the issues that plague other City assets. He gets a lot of minutes in the Prem and does not get subbed in often when he is benched. However, FPL is a game dependent on goals and assists, which Bernardo lacks compared to other mid-priced midfielders.  When he first arrived at City, Bernardo often played on the right-wing. However, Mahrez has taken over that position and Bernardo is more often deployed as a midfielder, hovering around the edge of the box to facilitate the attack. His goals and assists often come from just outside the box, dissimilar to other City attackers who prey on small combinations within the box. Although he is an amazing footballer in real life, Bernardo’s role does not translate into a great FPL asset and at the price point of  7.0 m, he is one to avoid. 

Rodri (5.5 m) – 0/10 

While he is one of the most consistent players in the City squad, Rodri is just not suited for  FPL. His season will be full of 2-and 3-point scores, which you will be able to get from 4.5-5.0 m  assets. At 5.5 m, Rodri is just not a choice anyone should be considering, regardless of how well he controls the midfield in real life. 

Man City Forwards to Consider in FPL with Rating

Jesus (8.5 m) – 1/10 

If you did not take this away from the substitution stats, do not pick Jesus in FPL! He is not a  number 9 as many people may think, he is a flex player who can be deployed anywhere in the attack.  While his season totals for goals and assists are relatively high, he is a player who is substituted in and out very often. At 8.5 m, the consistent forwards around and below that price are simply much better  FPL assets.

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Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of the 2021/22 Season:

Making the Case to be an FPL Asset This Season ~ Edinson Cavani
Team to Target for Initial Few GW’s – Brighton & Hove Albion | FPL 21/22 Season
2021/22 FPL Team Structure | One premium Mid and Forward with Drafts
2021/22 FPL Team Structure | Two Premium Midfielders with Drafts
FPL Budget Strikers (£4.5 – £6.5 Mil) Analysis Ahead Of 2021/22 Season
Official FPL- Making Your First GW1 Draft |Top Picks For 21/22 Season
FPL 2021-22: Best Rotational Pairs of Teams for Alternate Easy Fixtures
Best Premium Defenders To Target For The 2021/22 FPL Season
FPL Season Review – How I became a Top 500 FPL Manager! | FPL Tips
FPL Scouting Report: Jadon Sancho | Is It Worth Getting Sancho in FPL?
Team to Target for Initial Few GW’s – Everton | FPL 21/22 Season
An In-Depth Look at Team Structure 1: Three Premium Assets
2021/22 FPL Season: FPL Price Changes Explained | FPL Guide
2021/22 Fantasy Premier League Season Rules, Tips | The Ultimate Guide
What is Effective Ownership(EO) in FPL? | FPL Guide 
A Guide to FPL Team Structure | 21/22 FPL Season (Pre Wildcard)
How Structure and Approach can Shape your 2021/22 FPL Season

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