FPL GW31 Differential picks to consider ahead of FPL GW31 Deadline

Gameweek 30 was largely a disappointing week for a lot of managers. Pep’s roulette and Leeds’ rather underwhelming performance played a major role in ruining our GWs. We now head into a week in FPL where a lot of managers in the community have pressed their wildcard button. This therefore presents the rest of the managers an opportunity to move away from the template and pick some alternatives long term. Here is a look at the best differential picks for this week and beyond, ahead of FPL GW31 deadline.

Note: The ownership and price given is at the time of writing, and is subject to change thereafter.

FPL GW31 Differential Picks:

Gabriel Jesus vs Leeds(H) £9.2, TSB: 3.1%

It has become quite obvious now that Pep prefers to play with a false 9 in big matches (i.e. UCL and other cup competitions). That has left the door open for Gabriel Jesus to play as a striker in Premier League matches. Now that the league title is more or less secure for Manchester City, it won’t be a surprise if Jesus starts most of the games from now up and till the end of the season.

Jesus has registered 6 goals and 1 assist in his last 7 starts. Furthermore, since GW 21 Gabriel Jesus has had 9 big chances, no Manchester City player has had more in that time. In fact, Only Werner, Kane, Salah and DCL have had more across the league.

In FPL GW31, Manchester City take on Leeds, a team that has had the tendency to concede a lot of goals against the big teams, especially away from home. Believe it or not, Leeds have let in a whopping 20 goals in 5 matches away against traditional big six teams. This week is their last of such matches this season, and they are up against the best attacking team in the league.

It is safe to say that no matter what team Pep puts out, they are going to have a lot of goal scoring opportunities. In a week where a lot of FPL managers are letting go of Manchester City assets, now is the time to pounce on those that are most likely to start in the league and take advantage of a very favorable fixture.

Further Read: FPL GW31 Wildcard – Best Combinations, Tips and Team Reveal

James Maddison vs West Ham(H) £7.1, TSB: 5.0%

A lot has been made of the fixtures coming up in the next five weeks for Leicester City, and rightly so too. However, there has been chatter around Iheanacho(in particular), Vardy, Ricardo. But James Maddison, we think may be the best option to have from the Foxes.

Prior to his injury, James Maddison had registered 5 goals and 3 assists in his last 9 matches, a run of consistency which he hadn’t shown as an asset ever before. In fact, he had collected an attacking return in 10 of his last 14 matches. Just to put things in perspective, Bruno Fernandes has returned in 7 of his last 14 matches. Maddison was genuinely in a rich vein of form.

Leicester’s fixture swing on paper starts from next week. However, their FPL GW31’s fixture against West Ham isn’t as tough as it looks, as hammers are indeed without their captain, Declan Rice. Besides, the Hammers have kept just 1 clean sheet in the last 6 matches and have conceded 5 goals in the last two.

Fixtures: WHU(A), WBA(H), CRY(H), SOU(A), NEW(H)

Further Read: Teams and Players to Consider for the Final stretch of FPL Season | FPL GW31 ~ GW38

Mason Greenwood vs Spurs(A) £7.0, TSB: 1.9%

After being in and out of the team for the large parts of this season, Greenwood finally seems to be getting a run of starts in the first team. The Manchester United man has started 4 of the last 5 matches. In the last two matches in particular, he has looked like the player we saw post lockdown last season.

Greenwood has had 10 shots, 8 of them in the box since GW28 and this is more than any other in the league barring Kane. The Spurs striker has had 14 shots, 8 of them in box in that time. However, he has played 3 matches and Greenwood has played only two. He capped his good performances off with a winning goal vs Brighton.

Manchester United take on Spurs in FPL GW31, a team that has looked shaky to say the least defensively in recent weeks. The North London side have kept just 4 clean sheets in the last 13 matches. To cap it all off, in GW30, no team registered xG than Newcastle(3.15). And guess who they faced? Spurs!

Now that Anthony Martial is likely to miss the rest of the season, Greenwood is going to start more games, and in the form he is in, it won’t come as surprise if he performs the way he did towards the end of last season.

Further Read: FPL GW 31 – Chip Strategy, Tips, and Team Reveal |FPLNima

Richarlison vs Brighton(A) £7.9, TSB: 9.1%

The fact that Richarlison came out of the Crystal Palace with just 2 points is beyond believability. The Brazilian had 6 shots, 5 of them in the box and 3 big chances with an xG of 1.36 against the Eagles last time out. Only Kane had better numbers, he obviously scored twice, Richarlison got nothing.

It is not just last week, since moving into a striker role in GW25, Richarlison has had more shots, more shots in the box and indeed more big chances than every other player barring Harry Kane in the league. It definitely is only a matter of time before he converts these stats into actual FPL points.

After facing a Vicente Guaita masterclass, The Brazilian goes up against Brighton in FPL GW31, a team that has struggled at home all season. In contrast, Everton have done well on the road. To put it in numbers, Everton have the 4th best away record in the league, whilst the Seagulls have the 4th worst home record in the league. Furthermore, 4 of Richarlison’s 6 goals this season have been on his travels. All the numbers point to an Everton win with a haul from their ‘number 7’.

Further Read: FPL GW31 Captaincy Analysis, Metrics & Top Picks | AK FPL

Chris Wood vs Newcastle(H), £6.2, TSB: 1.6%

Wood was our ultra differential pick last week. He features in our differentials once again, as he has yet another favorable fixture, against Newcastle. Following his 10 point haul at St Mary’s last week, Wood has now registered 27 points in his last 3 FPL GWs. Only Lingard(28) and Iheanacho(28) have registered more in their last 3 GWs, respectively.

Since his return from injury in GW27, Wood has had a league high 8 shots on target, with an xG of 2.78, only Kane has a better xG in that time. The New Zealander has had 4 big chances, joint second best in the league. Newcastle have had a habit of allowing a lot of headed attempts all season, Chris Wood likes scoring with his head. A match made in heaven !

As we suggested last week, Chris Wood is a long term pick. Burnley have good fixtures till the end of the season. He therefore will be more than an able replacement for someone like a Bamford or a Watkins (who both have fixture swings), in your squads.

Fixtures: NEW(H), MUN(A), WOL(A), WHU(H), FUL(A), LEE(H), LIV(H), SHU(A)

Further Read: FPL GW31 Wildcard – Best Combinations, Tips and Team Reveal

Ultra-Differential Pick for FPL GW31(<1% TSB):

Mbaye Diagne vs Southampton(H) £6.0, TSB: 0.4%

Amidst all the chaos that happened at Stamford Bridge last week, Mbaye Diagne came away with a goal and an assist. Truth be told, this attacking return was a long time coming. Since his debut in GW21, Diagne has had 18 shots in the box, 9th best in the league. Adding on to that, he has had 8 big chances, joint eighth best in the league.

Despite boasting such numbers, West Brom’s new signing has scored just one goal prior to last week. The performance at Chelsea would have been both Diagne and the Baggies themselves a lot of confidence going in to a winnable run of fixtures.

This week West Brom ‘s opponents Southampton could be without Kyle Walker-Peters. The Saints’ record without their first choice RB is 7 defeats and 1 draw and no clean sheets in 8 matches.

Pro Tip: Three of next four fixtures for West Brom are against teams that are struggling for form. Diagne will be a very astute pick for that period in FPL, after which you could probably go back to Bamford, when Leeds once again have good fixtures.

Fixtures: SOU(H), LEI(A), AVL(A), WOL(H)

Further Read: Teams and Players to Consider for the Final stretch of FPL Season | FPL GW31 ~ GW38

Wishing you all Good luck with FPL GW31!

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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW 31:

FPL GW31 Wildcard – Best Combinations, Tips and Team Reveal FPL GW 31 – Chip Strategy, Tips, and Team Reveal |FPLNima FPL GW31 Captaincy Analysis, Metrics & Top Picks | AK FPL
Teams and Players to Consider for the Final stretch of FPL Season | FPL GW31 ~ GW38
All that you need to know about FPL cup
History Of Fantasy Football And Origin Of FPL
FPL History: Highest Scoring FPL Players Each Year Since The First FPL Season in 2002/03
FPL Tools guide for managers: Free and Paid

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