Blog last updated on 11/01/2020, 3:30 PM GMT after the Spurs vs Fulham fixture announcement.
After a flurry of GW’s, we have finally got a mini-break from FPL action with FA Cup fixtures being played this weekend. But this doesn’t mean that we have got time to rest as we have got a Blank FPL GW18 approaching us, with just six fixtures being played in BGW18 which is immediately followed by a double GW in FPL GW19. There is excitement and chaos amongst managers after the Spurs vs Villa game was postponed due to COVID outbreak involving a lot of Aston Villa’s first-team players and staff. However, Spurs been given the previously canceled GW16 fixture against Fulham for BGW18. In this blog, we are going to preview each of the games with stats and list the best differential picks from the BGW18 fixtures.
FPL BGW18 Preview & Players to consider in your Free hit team
Note: All player ownership & price are from the data at the time of writing, subject to change as we move close to the FPL BGW18 deadline
Burnley vs Manchester United
Manchester United are the in form team in the Premier League right now and it’s right for us to put them first on the list. If you’re on FH for BGW18 then a triple up on Manchester United assets is a must. Man Utd last tasted defeat in GW7 and have since have registered 24 goals(highest in the league), 151 shots on goal(second highest in the league) 65 shots on target(highest in the league), 38 big chances(highest in the league), xG of 23.65(highest in the league). This shows how dominant Manchester United have been attacking wise during the period.
Most of this is due to one man, Bruno Fernandes £11.3, TSB:52.9% and we are assuming most managers will be owning him already. If not you’re not doing FPL right this season.
Another Man Utd attacking asset to look at for FPL BGW18 is Martial £8.7, he has been in form for Manchester United over the last few games with the united attacker registering two goals and four assists in the last five games. Between GW13-GW17, Martial has the most big chances(5), 2nd best xG(2.94), most shots on target(9), Best xA(2.21), Most big chances created(4), most points(31) among forwards. Martial is that kind of player who is difficult to stop when he gets going. Manchester United and Martial have a Double Gameweek in GW19 which is an added bonus to bring him Martial in!
Marcus Rashford £9.6, TSB:12.5% is also another good asset to consider for FPL GW18. Rashford has registered 5 goals and two assists in the last 10 games making him the 7th highest scoring player during the period. 4 goals(1st), 18 shots(third highest), 4 big chances from GW13- GW17 once again rises a good case for him.
Burnley assets are pretty much a no-go for FPL GW18 with their defense not as solid as last season and simply don’t score a lot of goals to warrant a place in our FPL teams especially with the fact that they face an in-form Manchester United. Burnley have scored just nine goals so far this season only Sheffield(8) have scored fewer goals than them.
However, if you’re looking to gamble with a Burnley asset then Chris Wood could be a decent option. The Burnley forward has had Most big chances(10) for any player in the league between GW9-GW17- More than Salah, Vardy, Kane, and everyone else. Not just that he also has a respectable xG(4.61) in the league from GW9- GW17- Only six players have registered more.
Further Read: FPL GW 18 Free Hit Team- Chip Strategy, Tips, and Team Reveal
Arsenal vs Crystal Palace:
If you are on free hit and want to maximize points from differential picks, this should be the perfect fixture for it with all the in-form Arsenal assets at <10% ownership.
Coming to the defense, Arsenal are on the back of successive clean sheets against Brighton and West Brom in the last two games. Up against Palace, there should not be much trouble again to get the clean sheet unless there is an individual brilliance from Zaha. Palace attacking numbers are very poor- 2nd lowest xG(4.04), least big chances(4) over the last 5 games.
There are 3 good options from Arsenal’s backline and Tierney(5.4) seems to be the more popular pick at the moment – 1 goal, 2 big chances created, xA-1.39 from the last 7 games. Holding(4.5) looks to be the best budget option and offers a better goal threat, while Tierney and Bellerin have better assist potential as seen by the below numbers.
Holding(£4.5) vs Tierney(£5.4) vs Bellerin(£5.1) stats per 90 mins from GW11- GW17:
- Shots- 1.0 vs 0.43 vs 0.7
- Shots inside the box- 0.71 vs 0.29 vs 0.47
- Big chances created- 0.00 vs 0.29 vs 0.47
- xA- 0.02 vs 0.20 vs 0.26
Attack wise, Arsenal are leading most of the numbers over the last three weeks and could be great options if you are on free hit in GW18. They have the best xG(6.95), Most goals(8), Most shots(47), Most shots on target(22), 4th most big chances(9) over the last three weeks.
Aubameyang(£11.3) vs Saka(£5.3) vs Smith Rowe(£4.4)- Numbers per 90 mins GW15- GW17:
- xG- 0.47 vs 0.37 vs 0.18
- Big Chances- 1.00 vs 0.37 vs 0.39
- Shots- 3.00 vs 2.98 vs 0.78
- Shots inside the box- 2.50 vs 2.60 vs 0.78
- xA- 0.06 vs 0.32 vs 0.25
- Big chances created- 0.00 vs 0.37 vs 0.39
Aubameyang is a great premium differential pick with just 7.2% ownership and decent attacking numbers. But the truth to be told, it is difficult to own Bruno, Son, Kane, KDB and add Auba to the free hit team. Saka(0.69) has a better (xG+xA)/90 compared to Aubameyang(0.53) over the last 3 games and comes at 6.0 cheaper. Smith Rowe(4.5), for his price could be a good pick for the first sub/12th player on your free hit.
Lacazette(£8.3) offers a great differential potential at the moment and looks to be the best forward in the FPL game from the last 4 weeks numbers-wise. He has the best xG(2.93) and most big chances(5) among forwards from the last 4 games despite coming from the bench in 2 of those games.
Further Read: FPL GW 18 Free Hit Team- Chip Strategy, Tips, and Team Reveal
Manchester City vs Brighton
Hands down, Manchester City have been the best defensive team in the league since GW10 with 5 clean sheets from the last seven. They have conceded the least big chances(3), have the least xGC(3.4), best xCS(4.27), have conceded the least shots(56) and have conceded just 2 goals from GW10-GW17. Even a double-up on defense with two among Cancelo(5.8), Dias(5.8) and Stones(5.0) would be the way to forward. The fixtures are looks really- Brighton, Palace, Villa, WBA, Sheffield and Burnley in the next 6 games.
De Bruyne(£11.7) is slowly getting back to his old self and looks to be a must-own for FPL GW18. KDB has the best xA(6.76), created most Big Chances(13), 7 big chances(3rd among mids), xG-4.64(5th among mids), most assists(7) from GW6- GW17. He is one of the best captain choices for GW18 along with Bruno Fernandes(£11.3). Other premium choices Son(9.8) and Kane(11.0) face an Aston Villa side and we are still not sure whether the fixture would go ahead.
Sterling(£11.4) is the differential option to look for in FPL GW18 and beyond with Manchester City getting only better and better. He has returned in 4 successive weeks from GW13- GW17 and maybe a big haul is around the corner against a Brighton side who have conceded 28 goals(5th most) and just 3 clean sheets(3rd least) this season. Pep has confirmed the Aguero(10.3) is getting better and has trained well. Surely need to an eye on and would be an amazing differential pick if he starts games regularly.
Further Read: FPL GW 18 Free Hit Team- Chip Strategy, Tips, and Team Reveal
Wolves vs Everton:
Another exciting fixture in which two good teams face each other. Everton are boosted by the return of full-back Digne who has been out for a few weeks due to an injury. Meanwhile, Wolves have lost Podence due to an injury and have recalled Cutrone from his loan deal as they are really short of attackers.
Neto once again is one of the main Wolves attacker to watch out for in this fixture with the Wolves attacker involved in more Premier League goals(9) than any other Wolves player this season. He has 2 goals, 3 assists, 42 points from the last 8 games averaging 5.25 points per game.
Although Wolves have not been that great defensively like last season, Romain Saïss £5.1, TSB:11.2% has been putting in some amazing attacking performances. Over the last four weeks, Saiss has registered 9 shots (Highest amongst defenders), Two goals(Highest amongst defenders). Every corner or set piece and Saiss looks like he’ll head one home. He could be a very good punt in your FPL GW18 Free hit team.
Everton have been solid at the back over the last few games having kept three clean sheets since GW12 only Aston Villa and Southampton registering more CS during the period. Everton have also given away just seven big chances during the period. Digne back will further strengthen the defense. Not just the defense the attack could also benefit from his return as he’s one of the best crossers in the PL which improves the attacking prospects of DCL who is very strong aerially.
Sheffield United vs Newcastle:
This should be the easiest game to analyze due to Sheffield’s horrific start to the season with just 2 points from 17 games and Sheffield assets in FPL are a straight NO! Coming to Newcastle assets, Callum Wilson(£6.5) is the only attacking FPL asset to consider at the moment. There is an increase in Wilson stakes for this week as he is the best budget forward available at the moment. Other budget forwards for FPL GW18- Watkins and Wood are up against tougher opponents Spurs and Manchester United, which increase Wilson’s claim.
If Newcastle score, surely Wilson will be involved- Best xGI(60%) for any player in the league at the moment. And in all likelihood, Sheffield look to concede a goal. Sheffield have 0 clean sheets, have the third worst xGC(29.34), have conceded the 3rd most big chances(40) at the moment. Wilson has 8 goals, 4 assists, 12 big chances from just 14 games this games making him the 5th highest scoring forward with 86 points.
There is a temptation to look for Newcastle defensive cover on Free Hit with interesting budget options like Yedlin(£4.3), Clark(£4.3) and Darlow(£5.0) due to the fixture. Sheffield, as expected have poor attacking numbers- 2nd worst xG(7.08), least big chances(4) from GW12- GW17.
Further Read: FPL GW 18 Free Hit Team- Chip Strategy, Tips, and Team Reveal
Spurs vs Fulham:
Spurs have a new opponent in GW18 after the entire Villa couldn’t fulfil their GW18 fixture since the entire first team is isolating after widespread COVID outbreak. Spurs now take on Fulham which was their GW16 fixture that didn’t happen after Fulham had similar problems with COVID-19. It’s now to be noted that Fulham join Manchester United, Man City, Burnley as the only four teams to have a game in BGW18 and a doube in DGW19.
But this doesn’t mean we need to consider Fulham assets on FH for BGW18. Fulham played 120 mins in the FA Cup win over QPR and are under-prepared for this game against Spurs after a late fixture swap. They also face Chelsea and Manchester United in DGW19.
Spurs duo, Kane, and Son are now exciting prospects with Son being an unused sub in the FA Cup game against Marine FC whereas Kane missed out entirely. The duo were firing in all cylinders against Leeds in GW17 and could have mega hauls against a tired Fulham side. A spurs defender could also be a great option if you’re on a FH ahead of BGW18.
Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL for FPL Managers ahead of FPL GW18 Deadline:
FPL GW 18 Free Hit Team- Chip Strategy, Tips, and Team Reveal
Football Faithful podcast ~ FPL podcast: The best strategies for the blank and double gameweeks
FPL History: Highest Scoring FPL Players Each Year Since The First FPL Season in 2002/03
All that you need to know about FPL cup
History Of Fantasy Football And Origin Of FPL
FPL GW15 ~ GW19 Fixture Analysis |Best & Worst Fixtures Over The Period
FPL BGW18 & DGW19 Planner|Chips & Strategies
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Srinivasan S
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