FPL GW20 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups

Welcome to our FPL GW20 Scout Picks blog! Happy New Year! Due to GW19’s strange elongated nature, with fixtures stretching across two whole years (in reality just 4 days) with Leicester v Man City kicking off in 2024, and Brentford v Arsenal in 2025!… Unfortunately for the AAFPL Scout team, we kick this year off with a loss to the Official FPL Scout, scoring just 73 to the Scout’s 82, making it 12 – 7 to us so far this season.

	GW1	GW2	GW3	GW4	GW5	GW6	GW7	GW8	GW9	GW10	GW11	GW12	GW13	GW14	GW15	GW16	GW17	GW18	GW19	Total
AAFPL Team	84	65	92	44	59	42	59	26	72	35	83	70	83	67	63	51	95	65	73	12
Official FPL Team	64	96	77	46	54	39	44	46	71	55	78	66	98	64	78	46	89	59	82	7

Let’s hope that we can get back to winning ways in the first GW of the new year! As always, our Scout Picks will be based on the eye test, stats, and analysis. Let’s first take a look at the fixtures for FPL GW20.

Link to all our FPL GW20 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, best forwards, and more. Completely free to access as well!

FPL GW20 Fixtures

FPL GW20 Scout Picks

FPL GW20 Scout Picks – Goalkeeper

Sels (4.8m) retains his place between the sticks, having delivered an impressive 6 points for the AAFPL Scout picks team in GW20. Forest defended admirably against Everton in GW20, with Nuno’s side facing 13 shots, 2 of which were on target (both saved), for a combined total of 0.89xG. None of these shots were very menacing, however, as not a single one of them qualified as a big ‘big chance’.

This should come as no surprise however, as Forest are 3rd in the league for npxGA/90, and 5th in the league for Shots on target against per 90. Furthermore, teams that face forest average fewer shots on target as a percentage of the total shots they take than against any other opponent, highlighting just how good their defense is at discouraging opposition attackers from taking shots altogether. Forest’s defensive stats are further bolstered by the fact that Sels himself is averaging one of the best save percentages in the league (4th).

The Tricky Trees have secured 3 clean sheets in their last 3 games, and are now joint top of the league in that metric with 8 clean sheets across the season. Aina and Sels are top of the defender and goalkeeper categories respectively in FPL for points scored, highlighting just how vital a forest defensive asset is in FPL right now. It’s a toss-up between the two of them for the best forest asset this week, but due to his security of position (Aina has at times been shifted between right and left back) and the lack of other great goalkeeping options this week, we’re sticking with Sels!

Further Read: FPL GW20 Tips – Wood, Jackson, TAA Thoughts & Fixture Analysis

FPL GW20 Scout Picks – Defenders

Big at the back returns! This week we’ve gone for a fairly premium defensive trio of Gabriel (6.4m), Robinson (5.0m), and Trent Alexander-Arnold (7.2m)!

Gabriel‘s selection in our weekly scout picks teams has only ever been threatened by financial constraints – if money was no object we’d probably have him in every week! Arsenal have, in my opinion, the best defense in the league, and the stats situate them as at worst the second-best defensive side in the division this season (only behind Liverpool). Second-best xGA in the league, joint fewest goals conceded – it’s amazing what playing 4 centre backs can do!

Joking aside, Arsenal have been exceptional defensively for over a year now, so it makes sense to include at least one of their assets in our backline almost every week. What sweetens the deal with Gabriel is his attacking potential… The Brazilian is averaging 0.31xGI/90, that’s almost a goal or assist every 3 games, an astonishing statistic considering his position and role. Arsenal have become notorious for their set pieces and Gabriel routinely plays a big part in them. He’s by far the best defensive asset from the Gunners, and seeing as they have one of the best defenses in the league, his inclusion is a no-brainer!

Next up we have Robinson. The Fulham defender made it 7 assists so far this season with a delightful right footed cross which Harry Wilson expertly headed into the goal against Bournemouth in GW20. He has the most goal involvements of any defender in the league and has the 3rd most assists of any player in the Prem, only behind Salah and Saka.

Despite having the 5th best Post shot expected goals against per 90, they have only managed to keep 3 clean sheets so far this campaign, often conceding late goals and failing to hold on for the full 90 minutes. In fact, Fulham have dropped the most points (19) from winning positions in the league, highlighting how much they’ve struggled late on in games. That being said, their defensive numbers are still very good, and their opponent this week is Ipswich, which remains a fixture to target, despite their recent win over Fulham’s local rivals Chelsea in GW19.

Finally, we have Trent Alexander-Arnold, who we have included one final time before he makes his move to Real Madrid… Joking aside, while the transfer saga in which TAA is currently embroiled may affect his mindset and subsequently performances on the pitch, Liverpool are very short in defensive areas currently due to injury, and it is therefore unlikely that Trent’s starting position will be under threat against Manchester United in GW20. Furthermore, he showed in his performance and unique celebration against West Ham that he is not letting the media storm get to him…

The Scouser has averaged 0.42xGI/90 over the last 3 league games, producing 1 goal, 1 assist, and a clean sheet in that period, amounting to a total of 21 FPL points (7 points per match). Last time out against United Liverpool scored 3 and kept a clean sheet, and they’ll be expecting nothing less this time round, considering each side’s respective form in the league.

Further Read: FPL GW20 Best Forwards/Cunha Replacements | Forward Analysis

FPL GW20 Scout Picks – Midfielders

Outside of Salah and Rogers, our midfielder picks last week let us down, so this week we’ve gone for some guaranteed (touch wood) points scorers! Salah (13.6m), Palmer (11.4m), Murphy (5.1m) and Mbeumo (7.7m) make up our midfield quartet for FPL GW20.

Salah and Palmer’s inclusions need very little explanation, as both players have been unbelievably prolific this season (Salah in particular). Furthermore, with the injury to Saka and the form of Haaland, there are very few other premiums to consider. Salah is in the form of his life, and is playing one of his favorite opponents this week in Manchester United, who are in extremely concerning form. He’s top of the leaderboard for both goals and assists, producing 7 of each category in December. He was a no-brainer in this team and a no-brainer for captaincy.

Palmer on the other hand has been a bit quieter in recent weeks, producing just 1 attacking return in his last 4 games with Chelsea. That being said, his xGI in those games has been, on average, well above 0.5xGI/90. This week his team face Crystal Palace away, a great opportunity for him, and Chelsea, to get themselves back to the heights they were hitting last year and start 2025 off in the best way possible!

Murphy is perhaps our most intriguing selection this week, with many of our other picks being fairly template for FPL GW20. Newcastle face Tottenham this week which is, on paper, a tough fixture, but Spurs’ recent form, particularly defensively, in fact played a major role in Murphy’s inclusion in this team. Spurs’ only win in their last 7 games came against Southampton, and the last time they kept a clean sheet prior to that 5-0 win was in their 4-0 victory away at Man City all the way back in at the end of November (8 games ago).

Tottenham are bottom half of the table for both goals against and expected goals against, which is no surprise considering their recent results which include conceding 6 to Liverpool, 2 to Wolves and 4 against Chelsea. In fact, since the start of December, Spurs have conceded the joint most goals in the league…

TOT are ranked 19th for xGC, 18th for Big Chances Conceded, and 19th for Goals conceded over the last 6 GWs!

I heard the other day on a popular football podcast that this game to end 8-3 in Newcastle’s favour, and while I wouldn’t go as far as to suggest that the Magpies will score 8 goals against Spurs, I would be inclined to agree that we may have a goal fest on our hands. Newcastle have scored more than 2 goals in all of their last 6 games, and more than 3 in 4 of those – they are in fantastic goal-scoring form, and Murphy has been central to their success. The English winger has managed 7 goal involvements in that 6 game period and produced 2 double-digit hauls. He is by far the second-best Newcastle attacking asset, and the best midfield asset, averaging almost double Anthony Gordon’s xGI/90 over the last 5 league games (1.31xGI/90 v 0.73xGI/90).

Finally we have FPL fan favourite Brian Mbeumo. Brentford face Southampton in GW20, a team who manage to find new ways of losing every single week. Derby counties record of the lowest points in a PL season (11) may well be under threat, as Juric failed to give his side any kind of ‘bounce’, with his team suffering 2 consecutive losses in his short time as boss so far.

Mbeumo is having the season of his life, scoring 11 and assisting 2 so far this campaign, and while his underlying numbers suggest that this is somewhat of an over performance, and unlikely to continue long term, the fixture that Brentford have this week made him an easy pick for this week.

Further Read: FPL GW20 Tips – Wood, Jackson, TAA Thoughts & Fixture Analysis

FPL GW20 Scout Picks – Forwards

An Arsenal and Newcastle double-up (plus Watkins) concludes our AAFPL GW20 Scout Picks team!

Isak (9.2m) has been a constant in our team for the last 5 GWs, and coincidentally, his inclusion in the AAFPL Scout picks team has coincided with an uptick in form for the Newcastle star! In the last 6 GWs, he has managed 10 goal involvements, scoring in every one of his last 6 games (including a hat trick against Ipswich). He’s in stellar form, and, as mentioned in the section on Murphy, Newcastle can’t stop scoring at the moment, so we thought it a good idea to include two of their attackers for this week’s fixture against a leaky Tottenham Hotspur.

Another player who has retained their place in the team is Arsenal’s Jesus (6.8m). With Saka out, Jesus looks to be the best Arsenal offensive option. He’s scored 3 goals in his last 3 league games, as well as a hat trick in the league cup against Crystal Palace in December, averaging just over 0.6xG/90 in that period.

Arsenal face Brighton in GW20, a team who have had some fairly mixed results in recent weeks, and are actually winless in 7 games having last won a game on the 23rd of November against Bournemouth. During that run, they’ve kept only 1 clean sheet, just one of 4 they’ve kept all season, and conceded 13.

Finally, we have Aston Vila’s star forward Ollie Watkins (8.8m)! Watkins’ selection comes down mainly to his favorable fixture against Leicester in GW20, that being said, his underlying numbers are excellent as well. The English forward has been involved in 12 goals so far this season, and has averaged 0.83xG/90 one of the highest in the league amongst strikers. Against Brighton in GW19, Watkins accrued 1.11xG, scored once, and took home all 3 bonus points!

Emery’s side face a Leicester City side who are in free fall at this moment in time, having lost to one of the worst sides in the league on form (Manchester City) in GW19. Leicester have the 3rd worst xGA in the league and have conceded the joint most goals in the league. The Foxes have lost all of their last 4 league matches by a margin of 2 goals or more, so there is serious potential not only for Watkins to score, but for him to haul in GW20!

Further Read: FPL GW20 Best Forwards/Cunha Replacements | Forward Analysis

Full FPL GW20 Scout Selection Team

Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW20:

Top FPL GW20 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
FPL GW20 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
FPL Gameweek 20 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell 
Top FPL Gameweek 20 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW20 Tips and Dilemmas Answered- Wood, Jackson, Trent and Fixtures to Target
FPL GW20 Tips & Ultimate Guide: Differentials, Captaincy & More
FPL GW20 Best Forwards/Cunha Replacements | Forward Analysis

Link to all our FPL GW20 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 20 of the 2024/25 FPL Season?

We’ll be covering differential picks, transfer targets, Buy, Hold, Sell analysis, Scout picks, Gameweek preview, Captaincy metrics, FPL GW20 tips, and more. Keep checking allaboutfpl.com for all our blogs. We’ll also be posting regularly about the same on our social media accounts so follow us on Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook and keep our notification ON.