Welcome to the FPL Gameweek 14 Captain Picks & metrics blog. This week there are strong captaincy candidates with good fixtures including Salah, Saka, Palmer, Jackson, and Haaland which makes captaincy this week interesting. Let’s see who tops the captaincy metrics this week.
This season the metrics has an 8/13 return record. Last season the metrics finished with 560 points(26/38 returns). The metrics had a 31/37 “returns record” in the 22/23 season and a 30/38 “returns record” in the 21/22 season. Do follow the man behind the metrics @AK_FPL1(Do follow him on Twitter)
Total metrics points: 10 + 34 + 34 + 26 + 12 + 4 + 4 + 4 + 12 + 4 + 4 + 26 + 26 = 200 pts
Note: “Returns” ~ player topping the metrics getting points returns and not necessarily the highest scoring option of the week.
Link to all our FPL GW14 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!
FPL GW14 Captaincy Metrics
FPL GW14 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd
Palmer is the most obvious captaincy option for GW14 & he has taken the top spot in the captaincy poll with more than 50% of the votes.
Salah who continues to score double-digit hauls for fun is 2nd and will be up against Newcastle(A). Haaland who continues to have strong numbers is 3rd this week against Forest at home. Nicolas Jackson who has been consistently returning points is 4th ahead of a juicy fixture against the Saints & Saka is 5th in the captaincy poll this week.
Further Read: Top FPL GW14 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 14 Captain picks
Salah comes out on top for underlying numbers with an xG of 5.68 and 19 Shots inside the Box from the last 6 games. He also has 11 Big Chances during this run, the joint highest among these players.
Haaland is 2nd with an xG of 5.60 in the last six games. He’s also had 11 big chances the same as Salah in the last six games. Haaland is also on top for shots in the box as well during the period(27).
Palmer is 3rd with an xG of 2.24 and is also second for chances created(11) in the last six games which showcases his assist potential as well. Surprisingly he’s had only two big chances in the last six games.
Saka comes 4th for underlying numbers with 1.90 xG, 18 Shots inside the Box, 2 Big Chance, and 16 Chances created.
Jackson comes 5th for underlying numbers with 1.88 xG, 13 Shots inside the Box, 5 Big Chances, and 7 Chances created.
Further Read: FPL GW14 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
Underlying Numbers of the Candidate’s Teams
Liverpool top the Team Underlying Data with 13.14 xG over the last 6 matches which is the highest amongst all teams. They have also registered the most big chances(25) and shots inside in the box(64)
Man City are 2nd with the Blues accumulating 11.33 xG over this period. They have had 17 Big Chances during the last six games & are on top for shots inside the box(74) amongst all teams.
Chelsea rank 3rd for Expected Goals with 9.68 xG, 12 Big Chances, and 57 Shots inside the box.
Arsenal are 5th with an xG of 8.99 & they have had 15 big chances & 52 shots inside the box in the last six games. Arsenal’s xG is understandably low following a run of tough games & the absence of Odegaard. The number should improve with a good run of games ahead for them.
Further Read: Top FPL GW14 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW14
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.
We will use DraftHound’s odds for a Team scoring at least one goal in the Gameweek and the Odds of Scoring more than 2.0 goals in the Gameweek as a whole.
Chelsea are top with a whopping 91% odds of at least 1 goal and 50% odds of scoring 2+ goals in FPL GW13 vs Southampton(A).
Man City are 2nd with 89% odds of at least 1 goal and 45% odds of scoring 2+ goals in FPL GW14 vs NFO(H). The odds are very strong despite Man City’s poor form recently.
Arsenal are 3rd with 86% odds of at least 1 goal in the Gameweek and 40% odds of scoring 2+ goals this week against Man United(H).
Liverpool are only 4th in the table due to the Newcastle(A) fixture, the reds still have a decent odds with 83% odds of scoring atleast one goal and 33% odds of scoring 2+ goals.
Further Read: GW14 Sleeper Pick’em Free League- Rules, Prizes and Predictions
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 14 Captain Picks
In the Fourth Phase of the article, I have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.
Haaland is top of the projection rank table with an anytime returns projection of 68% and a points projection of 7.3 in GW14.
Palmer is 2nd with 65% anytime returns & a 7.7 points projection in GW14 vs Southampton.
Saka is 3rd and has 66% anytime returns & a 7.1 points projection in FPL GW14 at home to Man United.
Salah is 4th with 61% anytime returns & a 7.1 points projection in GW14 vs Newcastle.
Nicolas Jackson is last with a 56% anytime returns & a 5.9 points projection in GW14.
Further Read: FPL GW14 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 14 Captaincy metrics
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). According to our captaincy metrics, the candidate with the lowest cumulative rank factor is the ideal captaincy option.
Haaland tops the captaincy metrics with a CRF of eight, Palmer is close behind in the 2nd position with a CRF of 9. Salah is 3rd with a CRF of 11. Jackson is 4th and Saka is 5th in the captaincy metrics this week.
Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW14:
FPL GW14 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
Best FPL GW14 Differential Picks(<10% TSB) to Target
FPL Gameweek 14 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
GW14 Sleeper Pick’em Free League- Rules, Prizes and Predictions
FPL GW14 Tips & Ultimate Guide: Differentials, Captaincy & More
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What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 14 of the 2024/25 FPL Season?
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AK - Anurag Khetan
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