FPL GW17 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups

Welcome to our FPL GW17 Scout Picks blog! This weekends round of fixtures is the last one before Christmas, so to all those who celebrate – Merry Christmas! The festive period is well and truly upon us, with gameweeks coming thick and fast. We managed to eek out a victory over the Official FPL Scout Picks team in GW16, thanks mainly to our double Arsenal defense, meaning that we lead 10 – 6 against them going into GW17.

	GW1	GW2	GW3	GW4	GW5	GW6	GW7	GW8	GW9	GW10	GW11	GW12	GW13	GW14	GW15	GW16	Total
AAFPL Team	84	65	92	44	59	42	59	26	72	35	83	70	83	67	63	51	10
Official FPL Team	64	96	77	46	54	39	44	46	71	55	78	66	98	64	78	46	6

As always, our Scout Picks will be based on the eye test, stats, and analysis. Let’s first take a look at the fixtures for FPL GW17.

GW17 Fixtures

Link to all our FPL GW17 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

FPL GW17 Scout Picks

FPL GW17 Scout Picks – Goalkeeper

Raya (5.6m) is our ‘keeper for GW17. Our backing of double Arsenal defense last week came in clutch for the AAFPL Scout Picks team in GW16, with our two players returning a combined 12 points having both played 90 and kept a CS. Arsenal performed as we predicted they would in that game, limiting the visitors to just 0.13xG over the course of the game. That’s now 3 consecutive matches in the league in which the Gunners have restricted their opponents to less than 0.3xG: 0.26xG for United, 0.15xG for Fulham and 0.13xG for Everton.

Arteta’s side face a resurgent Palace in GW17, who are unbeaten in 5 and have just come off the back of a convincing 1-3 win away against bitter rivals Brighton. Since their 1-0 win over Spurs at the end of October, Palace do seem to have finally found their feet, but have continued to struggle for form.

The Eagles did in fact score twice against Arsenal in the 3-2 thriller in the League Cup in mid-week – but it must be noted that both Gabriel and Saliba were absent from the first half, with Timber the only ‘starter’ to start the game. Fundamentally, Arsenal have shown time and time again this season, particularly in recent games, that they are an excellent defense, and can be trusted to keep a CS against pretty much anyone in the league. While Palace have started scoring more, they are not one of the best attacking sides in the league, and many of the players who started in mid-week will likely start in GW17, leading to both tired legs and tired minds…

Further Read: Top FPL GW17 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline

FPL GW17 Scout Picks – Defenders

Deck the Halls, The angel Gabriel from heaven came, (I couldn’t think of one for Robinson) etc. – the puns write themselves. Gabriel (6.2m), Lewis Hall (4.6m) and Antonee Robinson (4.8m) make up our back three for GW17!

Gabriel completes the Arsenal defensive double-up, after their excellent defensive showing against Everton in GW16. The Toffees had just 2 shots, 0 on target, and 0 big chances, against Arsenal in GW16. In GW15, Arsenal limited Fulham to just 2 shots, 2 on target, and 0 big chances, and it was a similar story against United in GW14 too. Arteta’s side (or Stoke 2.0 as some have dubbed them) have been impervious and impenetrable in recent weeks in the league, so it’s no surprise that we are doubling up on their defense yet again!

Next up we have Newcastle’s Lewis Hall. The Magpies face Ipswich away from home in GW17, having dispatched Leicester with ease in GW16. Despite their new found spirit and goal scoring form under their new manager, the Foxes managed just 0.17xG in that game, and produced 0 big chances. Newcastle, on the other hand, managed 27 shots and 3.79xG, but more on their attack later…

Since the start of November, Newcastle have the 6th best xGA in the league, despite having played Liverpool, Forest and Arsenal during that period. Ipswich on the other hand really struggle to create and score goals. The Tractor boys have scored the 3rd fewest goals and created the 3rd lowest xG in the league so far this season. Furthermore, there’s a common misconception that Ipswich play much better when they are at Home, but in reality, they have a better record away, and are still win-less at Portland Road.

Hall has the added bonus of some potential attacking returns, producing 1 assist in Newcastle’s 4-0 win against Leicester in GW16. Hall averages 0.22xA/90, better than the likes of Kerkez and far higher than teammate Livramento. The young english left back is also averaging just under 1 shot per 90, and demonstrated last season that he’s no stranger to a long-shot or two (look up his goal against United for proof)! Decent defense against a poor attack, with the possibility of attacking returns; Lewis Hall is a great pick for GW17.

Completing our back three is Fulham’s Robinson. The American full back has made a number of appearances in our AAFPL Scout picks team this season, and makes another in GW17 for Fulham’s attractive fixture against Southampton. According to xGA, Fulham have the 4th best defense in the league, behind only Liverpool, Arsenal and Forest.

Robinson himself has been a very popular FPL pick to date, in part due to his team’s excellent defensive numbers, but also down to his perceived attacking threat. The American has managed 6 assists so far this season, the most of any defender in the league. His underlying numbers tell a slightly different story however, as his xA/90 is lower than Hall’s for example, and his season xA total is only around 2.49. That being said, upon watching Fulham, it’s easy to see the appeal. He is constantly up and down the left hand side, and is often involved in chance creation, offering overlaps and producing excellent balls into the box.

Fulham face Southampton in GW17, a side who are managerless and have struggled to score goals all season – Robinson is an excellent choice for this GW and beyond…

Further Read: Best FPL GW17 Defenders to Consider | Ait-Nouri Replacements

FPL GW17 Scout Picks – Midfielders

Two familiar faces and two new ones in our midfield this week – Salah (13.4m) and Palmer (11.2m) retain their places, while Iwobi (5.7m) makes his debut, and Gordon (7.2m) makes his first appearance for us since GW2!

Cole Palmer had a quiet game against Brentford in GW16, mainly due to how well Frank’s side dealt with the English superstar in-game. That being said, he still managed over 0.5xGI in the game, taking 4 shots and creating 4 chances for his team – he was also awarded a very controversial bonus point post-game…

Palmer attacking stats: (compared to other Chelsea Players)

• 0.58xG/90 (3rd)
• 0.45xA/90 (1st)
• 3.64 Shots per 90 (2nd)
• 11 Goals (1st)
• 6 Assists (1st)

Chelsea are unbeaten since October 20th and are on a 5 game winning streak going into their game away at Everton in GW17. Maresca’s side have created over 2xG in 4 out of 5 of those games, and looked imperious against an in-form Brentford in GW16. Palmer is the beating heart of that team, the main chance creator and one of the principal goal threats and he himself has been in excellent form of late, he was a no-brainer for this weeks Scout Selection team.

Another player who needs very little justification is Mo Salah. After a well deserved rest in mid-week, Salah will be eager to right the wrongs of GW16, and take all 3 points home against Spurs this weekend. Spurs’ 0-5 win against Southampton will give them a lot of confidence, but they are still center-back-less, with both Romero and Van de Ven out for this game, along with their 4th choice Ben Davies. Spurs started the game against the Saints with a CB pairing of Dragusin and Gray (not a cb), and subsequently had their starting LB go off injured, meaning that 4/5 of the back 5 will likely not be their first choice options against Liverpool (Vicario also injured).

Spurs’ defensive injuries aside, Salah and Liverpool have been in great form this season, and while they have struggled defensively in recent weeks, conceding three against Newcastle and two against Fulham, they have not stopped creating and scoring goals. Salah tops the league for goals scored and is second in the league for assists (13 goals, 9 assists). He takes the captains armband this week for the AAFPL Scout selection squad.

As mentioned, we picked Gordon in GW2, but since then the Scouse winger has not made an appearance for us. The Englishman has been unable to hit the heights of last season, and has this season produced just 3 goals and 2 assists, which is poor considering his price-tag. That being said, his underlying numbers are still very good – over the past 3 games he has averaged 0.44xG/90 and 0.21xA/90, scoring once and providing one assist in that time.

Newcastle face Ipswich in GW17, who remain one of the weakest sides in the league, offering Gordon a great opportunity to continue his fine form and bag even more attacking returns!

Fulham are another team which face a promoted side in GW17, which is a large part of the reason we’ve selected Iwobi for the AAFPL scout picks team this week. The Cottagers face Southampton in GW17, a side who shipped 5 against Spurs and subsequently sacked their manager. They did admittedly look a better side in mid-week against a weakened Liverpool side, but I would still expect them to struggle against the Fulham.

Iwobi himself is having a brilliant season, having scored 5 goals and managed 3 assists in the league so far this campaign. His underlying numbers are not as impressive as Gordon’s, but his performances in recent weeks have been so eye-catching that we felt, with a fixture against the worst side in the league, we had to include him! Furthermore, while we had wished to include Jimenez, who has far better underlying numbers, we are aware that Jimenez and Muniz may be rotated, as Fulham play Sunday -> Thursday – so we went for Iwobi, who is much more nailed, instead!

Further Read: FPL Midfielders Watch: Top Assets to Target for Gameweeks 17-19

FPL GW17 Scout Picks – Forwards

The AAFPL GW17 scout picks team is completed by an attacking trio of Wood (6.6m), Isak (8.7m) and Jackson (8.2m)!

Isak is the only forward to retain his place in the Scout selection team from GW16, after an impressive performance in which he managed to both score and assist in Newcastle’s 4-0 win against Leicester. Facing another promoted side this week in Ipswich we fancy his chances of hauling again!

Isak is by far the best Newcastle FPL asset, averaging 0.58xG/90 and 0.25xA/90. He has already bagged 7 goals and 4 assists so far this season, 5 of those goal contributions coming in Newcastle’s last 3 games! He has been hyped up big time by the FPL community in recent weeks and has shown us time and again in recent matches why he is such a popular asset.

Next up is Chelsea’s Nico Jackson. As mentioned, Chelsea are in great form of late, going into GW17 unbeaten since late October and with 5 wins in their last 5 prem games. Jackson has been central to their success, and broke a 2 game goal drought (if it can be called a drought) with a great goal against Brentford in GW16. He is actually marginally over performing his xG so far this season, having scored 9 goals from 8.85xG in the league, averaging around 0.64xG/90, the highest in the Chelsea squad!

The Blues face Everton away in GW17, and will fancy their chances despite Everton managing to nullify Arsenal last weekend. Everton have a fairly decent defensive record, having kept clean sheets in 4 of their last 5 games, although only one of those games was against a top 6 side. Furthermore, in 3 out of 5 of those games the opposition team managed to create over 1 xG, suggesting that their success in recent weeks has been in large part down to Pickford and/or poor finishing and is likely not sustainable. Palmer and Jackson are the two best Chelsea assets, and we’re backing them against Everton in GW17!

Finally we have Nottingham Forest’s Chris Wood. Brentford (Forest’s opponent for GW17) are in the midst of a defensive injury crisis, with both Pinnock and Van Den Berg likely out for their match against Forest this weekend. Thus we have decided to select Forest’s main man Chris Wood as the final piece of the AAFPL Scout Selection puzzle!

Only three teams have conceded more goals than Brentford this season, and only four teams have conceded more expected goals. Wood has already scored 10 goals this season, and has led the line tremendously well for the Tricky Trees in what is shaping up to be a monumental season for them. Wood has the highest xG (by quite a long way) in the Forest squad, and is the focal point of their attacks.

Further Read: Top FPL GW17 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline

Full FPL GW17 Scout Picks Team

Please note that our bench includes a 4.0m ‘keeper, a 2 x 4.0m defender, and a 4.5m midfielder, as all of the players selected are expected to start and have significant game-time in FPL GW17.

Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW17:

Top FPL GW17 Differential Picks(<10% TSB) to Consider Ahead of Deadline
FPL GW17 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
FPL Gameweek 17 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
FPL Midfielders Watch: Top Assets to Target for Gameweeks 17-19
FPL GW17 Tips & Ultimate Guide: Differentials, Captaincy & More
FPL GW17 Tips – Budget Midfielders, Arsenal Defence & More
Sleeper Draft Fantasy GW17- Best Punts and Hidden Gems
Best FPL GW17 Defenders to Consider | Ait-Nouri Replacements

Link to all our FPL GW17 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 17 of the 2024/25 FPL Season?

We’ll be covering differential picks, transfer targets, Buy, Hold, Sell analysis, Scout picks, Gameweek preview, Captaincy metrics, FPL GW17 tips, and more. Keep checking allaboutfpl.com for all our blogs. We’ll also be posting regularly about the same on our social media accounts so follow us on Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook and keep our notification ON.