FPL GW15 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups

Welcome to our FPL GW15 Scout Picks blog! One of the most chaotic weeks of the Premier League season is almost over, with the third round of fixtures in the space of a week beginning at 12.30 on Saturday afternoon. Despite not captaining Salah in GW14 we still managed a huge 67 points, thanks in large part to a clutch 15 points from Saliba on wednesday night, securing us a slim victory over the Official FPL Scout Picks team for GW14 and making the score 9-5 (to us) going into GW15!

	GW1	GW2	GW3	GW4	GW5	GW6	GW7	GW8	GW9	GW10	GW11	GW12	GW13	GW14	Total
AAFPL Team	84	65	92	44	59	42	59	26	72	35	83	70	83	67	9
Official FPL Team	64	96	77	46	54	39	44	46	71	55	78	66	98	64	5

Will we be backing the early kick off?!?! Read on to find out… As always, our Scout Picks will be based on the eye test, stats, and analysis. Let’s first take a look at the fixtures for FPL GW15.

Link to all our FPL GW15 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

GW15 Fixtures

FPL GW15 Scout Picks

FPL GW15 Scout Picks – Goalkeeper

Martinez (5.0m) is between the sticks for our FPL GW15 Scout Picks team; despite the injury concerns going into GW14 he played a full 90 without any issues. Villa beat Brentford 3-1 in midweek and face promoted Southampton in GW15 at home. While Emery’s side have been struggling to manage the extra games and intensity that Champions League football brings (they currently sit 8th in the PL), Southampton at home is arguably the easiest fixture on the calendar for any decent PL side, so their players should be targeted.

The last time that Villa kept a clean sheet in the league was GW7 against Manchester United, but since then they’ve had a number of tough games at home and away, and most importantly, have not faced a promoted side. Southampton are 20th for goals scored (16th for xG), and have scored more than 1 goal on just 2 occasions in the league. As mentioned last week, they are also the most wasteful team in the league, under performing their xG by almost 8 goals so far this season – against Chelsea they created almost 2xG but scored just once.

Our GK pick for GW14 was benched (Sanchez), let’s hope that our pick this week doesn’t suffer the same fate!

Further Read: FPL GW15 Tips – Isak, Johnson Dilemmas, and Fixtures to Target

FPL GW15 Scout Picks – Defenders

Timber (5.6m), Kerkez(4.6m) and Gvardiol (6.2m) make up our defensive trio for GW15.

Kerkez heads the GW15 Defenders picks. Bournemouth have a very favorable fixture run from Gameweek 15-20. They have also been very unlucky in terms of Defensive returns this season. Their xGC of 16.26 is the 5^th best in the League but they have only kept 2 Clean sheets so far. That number should start to rise in the next few weeks.

Kerkez has also started contributing at the other end of the pitch, having supplied 2 Assists and a Goal since Gameweek 10. Since Gameweek 8, only 2 defenders can better Kerkez’s tally of 3 Big Chances created. Kerkez also got 2 Bonus Points when they kept a Clean sheet against Bournemouth and that is because of his Chance created numbers. He has played 14 Key passes so far this season. At his cost of 4.5, Kerkez could be the next Budget Gem.

Gvardiol makes his long awaited return to the team, after City’s poor run of form which spanned across not only the PL, but also the Champions league. Their performance against Nottingham Forest showed us glimpses of what this side can still produce, hitting 3 past the Tricky Trees and producing 2.41xG. Gvardiol’s performance was of particular interest from an FPL point of view…

Gvardiol Heatmap vs Forest

The Croatian was playing in a very advanced role for Pep’s side in GW15, at points as an auxiliary striker, illustrated by his 0.56xG. If he and City can get back to the form they were in at the beginning of the season then Gvardiol could soon become an essential FPL asset once again! The Citizens face Palace in GW15, a side who have struggled for goals all season; despite City’s defensive struggles in recent weeks, they should still be able to escape Selhurst Park with a Clean Sheet intact!

The latest injury updates are that Stones, Ake are ruled out and Akanji still doubtful. This increases Gvardiol’s expected minutes.

What would an FPL Scout Selection team be without an Arsenal defender? Last week our Saliba shout payed off big time, with the Frenchman securing a massive 15 points for our GW14 Scout Selection – this week it’s Timber’s time! Timber has played 70+ minutes in all of Arsenal’s last 6 PL matches, and has played 85+ in the last 4, highlighting his importance to Arteta’s team. In the absence of Gabriel he was one of, if not the main targets from set pieces, and scored the crucial first goal in Arsenal’s 2-0 win against United in mid-week.

Arsenal have the 2nd best goals against and the 3rd best expected goals against in the league; the Gunners conceded just 0.22xG against United on wednesday, so will be expecting another CS against Fulham this weekend. Fulham played on Thursday night and face Arsenal on Sunday; such a quick turnaround will lead to tired legs, tired minds, and hopefully a lack of concentration at set-pieces! While Fulham’s defensive record (particularly from set-pieces) has been exceptional so far this season, their goal-scoring has not been as impressive, as they sit 10th for goals scored and 8th for xG, so a CS is definitely on the cards…

Further Read: Top FPL Gameweek 15 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics

FPL GW15 Scout Picks – Midfielders

Our midfield quartet is made up of Rogers(5.3m), Palmer (11.0m), Saka (10.5m) and Semenyo (5.7m), and as you can see: we are backing the early kick off!

Palmer was a late addition to this weeks team, making it in following Spurs’ poor defensive performance (/overall performance) against Bournemouth on thursday evening. Palmer himself is in decent form, with 3 attacking returns in his last 2 games, and Spurs were without both of their first choice centre backs and lost one their 4th choice (Ben Davies) to injury, meaning that it’s likely their pairing will include at least one player who has never started a game at CB before…

Palmer also takes up the Captaincy armband as he tops our Updated FPL GW15 Captaincy Metrics.

Chelsea are second in the league for xG only behind Liverpool while their opponents (Spurs) are 8th for xGA and conceded over 3xG in 2 of their last 3 games. Another stat which highlight’s Tottenham’s defensive fragility is that they’ve conceded 2+xG in 4 of their last 5 games. Furthermore (this stat is crazy), since the start of November Spurs have the 3rd most xG conceded in the league,only Southampton and Manchester City have a worse record in that period (I told you it was a crazy stat). While double Chelsea attack seemed like overkill, we felt it was necessary to at least include their talisman Palmer!

Our final premium midfielder is Arsenal’s Bukayo Saka, who has been a mainstay in our AAFPL Scout Picks team for three weeks in a row! As mentioned in our last post, Saka has been in excellent form, and his underlying numbers have received a massive boost since Odegaard’s return to the team.

Saka Attacking Stats since Odegaard’s return (4 matches):

• 2 Goals
• 3 Assists
• 0.4xG/90
• 0.58xA/90
• 9 FPL Points per Game

While the Englishman did blank mid-week, we’re standing by him this week in the hope of some big attacking returns in GW15!

Semenyo makes his return to the AAFPL Scout Picks team – the return of a QEBE (quasi-essential budget enabler)! Despite not managing an attacking return in his last 4 outings in the league, his price and attractive fixture against Ipswich this week makes him a lock for our team this week! Ipswich, in spite of their recent improved performances, remain one of the worst defensive teams in the league (3rd bottom for xGA), and thus they should still be seen as a team to target from an attacking POV.

His 4 goals and 1 assist is a great return for a player at such a low price, and his numbers tell us that he’s been unlucky not to score more! The Bournemouth winger is averaging 0.44xG/90 and 0.26xA/90, so far this season he is under performing his xG by close to 1 and his xA by almost 2.5! He remains a great budget FPL pick, and with a great fixture against a promoted side in FPL GW15 he is indeed quasi-essential…

Rogers completes the midfield of the GW15 Scout Team with a tempting fixture vs Southampton(H). Southampton have just conceded 5 goals vs Chelsea in midweek and are arguably the worst defensive side in the league- Ranked 20th for xGC, 20th for Big Chances conceded and 19th for Goals conceded. Rogers has already scored 4 goals, 2 assists so far and also got a goal vs Brentford in GW14. At 5.3, he is too good to ignore despite the minutes risk in the tight schedule.

Further Read: Top FPL GW15 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline

FPL GW15 Scout Picks – Forwards

Our front-line this week is made up of Bournemouth’s Evanlison (6.1m), Brighton’s Pedro (5.8m) and Villa’s Watkins (9.0m)! Let’s dive straight into it…

Evanilson was unlucky to come away without an attacking return on thursday night against Spurs, having 1 goal ruled out for offside, created 2 chances and took 3 shots (which equaled just under 0.6xG). The Bournemouth striker is the 9th highest FPL point scorer amongst forwards so far this season, and has the 8th highest xG/90 of any player in the league (900+ minutes).

Since the start of November, Bournemouth have produced the 2nd most xG in the league, only behind Liverpool, and have scored the 4th most goals. Their home form is significantly better than their away form, so the fact that this fixture is taking place at Ipswich’s Portman road is a slight cause for concern. Regardless, the Cherries have been in great form, and Evanilson is statistically their best attacker, producing, on average, 0.59xG/90 and 0.08xA/90.

Haaland makes his comeback into the Scout Team mainly due to the last minute postponement of Everton vs Liverpool game. Haaland did get an assist in GW14 and also has a good fixture vs Crystal Palace(A) in GW15. Over the last 5 Gameweeks, Palace are ranked 12th for xGC, 14th for Big Chances conceded. So the Golden Boot winner might not be a bad option after all!

The final player of our FPL GW15 Scout Picks team is none other than Aston Villa’s Ollie Watkins! Watkins still remains one of the best FPL picks from an underlying numbers perspective, averaging 0.82xG/90, second only to Haaland in the PL (900+ minutes)! The English forward has managed 10 goal involvements in 14 appearances in the league, and is still managing to keep Duran out of the team!

Villa face Southampton at home in GW15, a great fixture from both an attacking and defensive POV. Southampton are statistically the worst defensive team in the league, and are still without their first choice GK Ramsdale. I wrote last week that, Russel Martin’s rotation between Lumley and McCarthey would not help their defensive solidity in Ramsdale’s absence; and I was vindicated, as Southampton conceded the most xG ever recorded by a home side in a Premier League game against Chelsea in GW14 (5.83xGA) – Watkins will definitely fancy his chances against them!

Further Read: FPL GW15 Tips & Ultimate Guide: Differentials, Captaincy & More

Full FPL GW15 Scout Picks Team

Please note that our bench includes a 4.0m ‘keeper, a 2 x 4.0m defender, and a 4.5m midfielder, as all of the players selected are expected to start and have significant game-time in FPL GW15.

Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW15:

FPL GW15 Scout Selection- Top Picks Based on Stats and Matchups
Top FPL Gameweek 15 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
Top FPL GW15 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
FPL GW15 Tips & Ultimate Guide: Differentials, Captaincy & More
FPL GW15 Tips – Isak, Johnson Dilemmas, and Fixtures to Target
Sleeper Draft Fantasy GW15- Best Punts and Hidden Gems

Link to all our FPL GW15 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 15 of the 2024/25 FPL Season?

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