FPL GW11 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups

Welcome to our FPL GW11 Scout Picks blog! GW10 is over, and we have just 1 more set of games to go before the November international break, one final chance to make up ground, or increase leads, before the Christmas run-in and the schedule gets even more congested! Unfortunately, we got the captaincy choice wrong last week, sticking with Haaland, meaning that we suffered our 4th loss of the season, taking the tally against the official FPL Scout picks team to 6-4 in our favour.

	GW1	GW2	GW3	GW4	GW5	GW6	GW7	GW8	GW9	GW10
AAFPL Team	84	65	92	44	59	42	59	26	72	35
Official FPL Team	64	96	77	46	54	39	44	46	71	55

Another week, another team, and we’re confident that this week we’ve got the captaincy right! As always, our Scout Picks will be based on the eye test, stats, and analysis. Let’s first take a look at the fixtures for FPL GW11.

GW11 Fixtures

Link to all our FPL GW11 blogs including Scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

FPL GW11 Scout Picks

FPL GW11 Scout Picks – Goalkeeper

Pickford (4.9m) makes his first appearance in the AAFPL Scout Picks team this season, thanks to some decent team form and a good fixture against a struggling West Ham in GW11. England’s number 1 has been a go-to FPL goalkeeper pick for years now, and he’s been on many managers minds in recent weeks. With Everton finally picking up a bit of form (1 loss in the last 5 games), and a decent fixture run from GW5 till around GW12, the English shot-stopper is up to around 10% ownership going into GW11.

Everton are 14th for both goals conceded and expected goals against – so on the surface, I’m sure many are questioning our judgement, but there is more to this pick than meets the eye! In their last 5 games, Everton have conceded just 3 goals, keeping 2 clean sheets. Furthermore, they’ve only conceded more than 1xG in 3 of those games. Elsewhere, their defensive stats are fairly mid-table, but their fixture this week is a big reason that we’re targeting the ex-Sunderland man!

West Ham have been poor so far this season, and their new manager Lopetegui is already under immense pressure! They’ve won two of their last five matches, and generated just 0.13xG in their last outing against Nottingham Forest in GW10. With Kudus out, they lack creativity, demonstrated in their awful 3-0 loss to Forest, and with defensive midfielder Alvarez also suspended, they’ll have to play more defensively (or more defensive players) to cover for his absence.

Despite his low save numbers (and low save percentage), we’re backing the English ‘keeper in GW11 to get us a CS!

Further Read: Top FPL Gameweek 11 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics

FPL GW11 Scout Picks – Defenders

Ait-Nouri (4.6m) is the only defender to retain his place in the AAFPL Scout Selection team, and is joined by Fulham’s Robinson (4.7m) and United’s Dalot (5.1)… Let’s dive right in!

As mentioned last week, RAN is one of the most attacking defenders in the game, averaging 0.3xGI/90 despite Wolves still being winless in the league! The French fullback is expected to return 4.7 points in GW11 according to Fantasy football hub’s predicted points tool, and is only behind Gvardiol and Trent in terms of defenders this week in this metric. Despite his exceptional start to the season from an FPL perspective, and a great fixture run ahead of him, Ait-Nouri is still owned by under 12% of managers!

It’s always important to aggressively target the fixtures in FPL, and that is what we are doing again this week, with Wolves facing Southampton at home, a great chance for them to finally get their first win of the season. While the underlying numbers for Southampton didn’t look too bad at the start of the season, they have started to falter, and currently sit 16th for xG and bottom for goals scored. As mentioned in last week’s article, they have been forced to rotate their forward line a lot, which has of course led to dysfunction and despair.

While Wolves are by no means a good defensive team, 20th for goals conceded with 27 and 17th for xGA, the fixture of Southampton at home is too good to ignore! It’s also important not to disregard just how attacking RAN really is – he’s third in the Wolves squad for xG/90, and has the joint most goal involvements in the team! An FPL community favourite – RAN is a must-have in GW11! (as long as you ignore the fact he’s 1 yellow card away from suspension…)

Speaking of ‘aggressively targeting the fixtures’, Man United face Leicester this week – so we’ve chosen for Diogo Dalot in our FPL GW11 Scout Picks team! United’s defense has gone under the radar this season, with them having conceded just 12 goals (1 more than City and Arsenal), and half of those coming in two games against Liverpool and Spurs. They’ve kept 4 clean sheets so far this season, and have an excellent fixture run coming up, facing 2/3 promoted teams plus Everton in the next 3 GWs.

Dalot has scored the 7th most points of any defender, and is averaging a very decent 3.8 points per match. He’s a nailed, 90-minute man for a fairly good United defense, and faces a promoted side at home in GW11, what’s not to love!

Finally, we have Fulham’s Anthony Robinson, with the American making his 3rd appearance in the AAFPL 24/25 Scout picks team. Robinson delivered for us in GW3, bagging an assist against Ipswich, and has gone on to prove his worth to the managers who put faith in him, as he sits just outside the top 10 highest point-scoring defender list (12th).

Fulham’s defense has also gone a bit under the radar, with them conceding just 1 more than United – they’ve conceded over 1xGA in only 4 games this season! The most impressive stat however, is that they are the 2nd best defense in terms of expected goals against, conceding just 10.43xG across their 10 games so far this season, a total bettered only by Liverpool.

Don’t let their recent form fool you, they’ve played some tough teams in recent weeks, Fulham defenders should definitely be considered.

Further Read: FPL GW11 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats

FPL GW11 Scout Picks – Midfielders

Our midfield this week consists of some very familiar faces: Mo Salah (12.8m), Bruno Fernandes (8.2m), Brennan Johnson (6.7m) and Bryan Mbeumo (7.9m) make up our fairly template FPL midfield!

Salah is on fire right now. He has blanked in just 2 games this season, and in his last 3 games has produced 3 goals and 1 assist – as I said on fire! As per usual, he’s got the best xG/90 in the Liverpool squad (not including Jota who is currently injured) and the 2nd best xA/90 only behind Trent (400+ minutes).

His 7 goals and 5 assists in the league makes this one of his best-ever starts to a Premier League campaign. He’s notoriously a big game player, and Villa is surely now considered one, based on their performances not only in the league but also in Europe (even if they did get smashed 4-1 by Spurs!)… Salah will be considered by many as a captaincy option this week, and while he isn’t our’s, he was one of the first names on the team sheet!

Next up is Bruno F. United’s talisman has had a poor start to the season, compared to how prolific he normally is, having scored just once and provided 2 assists. This is not entirely down to him of course, as United have had one of their worst starts to a season ever, and the Portuguese midfield maestro has been let down time and time again by his teammates.

However, with interim Ruud van Nistelrooy at the helm, United have looked like a much-improved team, and with a very attractive fixture against a promoted side this week, it’s hard to ignore their assets in GW11! Bruno’s numbers in recent weeks have been superb, and with some very attractive fixtures in the short term, now could be the time to make the switch to Bruno!

Brennan Johnson has also been in great form recently and has a total of 6 goal involvements in the league so far this campaign. He scored in Tottenham’s most recent game against Villa, having gone the previous 2 GWs without scoring. The Welshman scored in 5 consecutive games between GW4 and GW8, so perhaps his goal against Villa is the start of another run…

Most importantly, Spurs face Ipswich in GW11, who’s defensive stats are not great to say the least…

Ipswich Defensive Stats:

• 21 Goals Conceded (19th)
• 26.4 Expected Goals Against (20th)
• 1 Clean Sheet
• 0 Wins

It’s clear to see why so many managers are targeting Spurs’ offensive assets in GW11! Tottenham have the 2nd best xG in the league, and have scored the most goals – with their recent 4-1 win against Villa highlighting just how prolific they are. Johnson has scored the joint most goals in the squad, and has the 2nd best xG/90 only behind Solanke.

He’ll be up against Leif Davis when Ipswich visits the Tottenham Hotspur stadium, an enticing prospect for owners, as Davis is renowned for his forward runs and attacking capabilities which may leave space in behind for Johnson to attack. According to Fantasypaedia, Ipswich have conceded the most chances down the right flank, far more than down the centre and left – Johnson’s a great pick for GW11!

Finally, we have Mbeumo. Retaining his place in the team for the 6th GW in a row, Mbeumo is easily our most capped player this season, and for good reason! The Brentford attacker has the 3rd most points of any midfielder in the game, only behind Palmer and Salah, and offers far more bang for your buck than the players above him! He failed to take a single shot in Brentford’s game against Fulham in GW10, but that has not detterred us – we believe in you Mbeumo!!

Mbeumo has scored 8 goals in the league, and is averaging 0.38xG/90. Admittedly his expected goal stats are far lower than his current output, but it’s important to note that he is also averaging 0.25xA/90 and is yet to register a single assist so far this campaign. His 0.63xGI/90 is exceptional for his price, and with Bournemouth in GW11, we’re still confident he can get us some big returns.

Further Read: FPL GW11 Tips & Ultimate Guide: Differentials, Captaincy & More

FPL GW11 Scout Picks – Forwards

Our forward line this week consists of Wolves’ Cunha (6.7m), Spurs’ Solanke (7.7m) and City’s Haaland (15.3m), but our captain pick may surprise a few…

Haaland remains in the team but loses the captaincy for GW11, due to some sub-par performances from him and City in recent weeks. They play Brighton in GW11, which they should win, but after their 2-0 loss to Bournemouth in GW10 and a 4-1 drubbing at the hands of Sporting CP in mid-week, it may not be a walk in the park…

His stats are still through the roof, having accumulated 1.6xG against Bournemouth, but failing to score, and 2.44 against Southampton, but just scoring once. The issue is, at the start of the season he was over-performing his xG big time, so this underperformance is mildly concerning, especially considering his extortionate price tag in FPL. We’re still too scared to take him out, but have taken the first step towards a Haaland-less team by stripping him of the captaincy, hopefully, it doesn’t come back to bite us…

Cunha also retains his place in the team, mainly due to his enticing fixture of Southampton at home in FPL GW11. Cunha has scored 4 goals and produced 1 assist in the league, and averages both the most shots and the most key passes of any player in the Wolves squad. He also leads the team for xG/90 (0.29) and xA/90 (0.32) – he is their talisman.

The obvious concern with Wolves is the fact that they aren’t winning games, but their goal-scoring has actually been fairly decent this season, scoring 14 from 10.9xG in the 10 games. ‘Aggressively target the fixtures’ – Southampton have the 3rd most expected goals against and the 4th most goals against, they are evidently a team to target.

Finally, we have our CAPTAIN for this week, Dom Solanke! After an excellent all-round performance against Villa in GW10, we’ve gone for in-form man Solanke as our captain for GW11. Solanke is top of the list for captaincy metrics – check out our post on captaincy for GW11 here.

The Englishman leads the Spurs squad for xG/90, averaging an excellent 0.73. He is joint top-scorer in the squad (with Johnson) on 4 goals, and is actually underperforming his expected data, which suggests he should have scored almost 2 more than he has. Everything I wrote about Johnson also applies here, Ipswich at Home is probably the easiest fixture, Solanke is in form, and Spurs are prolific both in real and expected terms – a great choice captaincy option!

Further Read: Sleeper Draft Fantasy GW11 – Best Punts and Hidden Gems

Full FPL GW11 Scout Picks

Please note that our bench includes a 4.0m ‘keeper, a 2 x 4.0m defender, and a 4.5m midfielder, as all of the players selected are expected to start and have significant game-time in FPL GW11.

Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW11

FPL GW11 Tips & Ultimate Guide: Differentials, Captaincy & More
FPL GW11 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
Top FPL GW11 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
Top FPL Gameweek 11 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
Sleeper Draft Fantasy GW11 – Best Punts and Hidden Gems
FPL GW11 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats

Link to all our FPL GW11 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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