Welcome to the FPL Gameweek 9 Captain Picks & metrics blog, Haaland who topped our captaincy metrics last week blanked for the third straight time this season. He scored a brace in the UCL game on Wednesday & he’ll be up against a defensively weak Southampton side, making him the standout FPL GW9 captaincy option. There are also other strong candidates this week in Palmer, Mbeumo & Son which makes captaincy this week interesting. Let’s see who tops the captaincy metrics this week.
Will it be Haaland or Palmer or someone else?
This season the metrics has a 5/8 return record. Last season the metrics finished with 560 points(26/38 returns). The metrics had a 31/37 “returns record” in the 22/23 season and a 30/38 “returns record” in the 21/22 season. Do follow the man behind the metrics @AK_FPL1(Do follow him on Twitter)
Total metrics points: 10 + 34 + 34 + 26 + 12 + 4 + 4 + 4 = 128 pts
Note: “Returns” ~ player topping the metrics getting points returns and not necessarily the highest scoring option of the week.
Link to all our FPL GW9 blogs including Scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!
FPL GW9 Captaincy Metrics
FPL GW9 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd
This week the top five are very interesting with Haaland still comfortably topping the FPL GW9 captaincy poll despite three straight blanks. Palmer who is up against Newcastle at home & Mbeumo who will be facing Ipswich at home take the 2nd and 3rd place. Salah is only fourth this week in the captaincy poll due to a tricky fixture vs Arsenal away from home. Son is fifth in the captaincy poll. The top five that will be going into the captaincy metrics this week will be Haaland, Palmer, Mbeumo, Salah, and Son.
Note: Son is most likely ruled out of FPL GW9, Kindly ignore him in the captaincy metrics this week.
On our skipper, our Head Coach explained, “Sonny’s still not right, still not feeling 100 per cent. He won’t train today, so he’s unlikely for this weekend and we’ll see after that.” Latest on Son from the Spurs website
Further Read: FPL GW9 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 9 Captain picks
Haaland comes out on Top for underlying numbers with an xG of 4.22 and 23 Shots inside the Box from the last 6 games. He also has 6 Big Chances during this run which is the 2nd Highest among these players.
Palmer is 2nd for the xG with 4.00 and is ahead of Haaland for big chances(7) in the last six games. Palmer has also created 18 chances in the last six games which is the highest amongst the five players.
Salah is third just behind Palmer with 3.65 xG, 16 Shots inside the Box, and 6 Big chances. He’s also created 14 chances which is the 2nd highest amongst the five players.
Mbeumo comes 4th for underlying numbers with 2.76 xG, 11 Shots inside the Box, 6 Big Chances and 12 Chances created highlighting his assist potential as well.
Son is last amongst the five players with an xG of 1.80, he’s created 15 chances in the last six games.
Further Read: Top FPL GW9 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
Underlying Numbers of the Candidate’s Teams
Spurs Top the Team Underlying Data with 84 Shots, 21 Big Chances, and 13.34 xG– Top for shots inside the box, xG metrics over the last 6 matches amongst all teams.
Chelsea are 2nd accumulating 12.95 xG over this period. They have 24 Big Chances, top amongst the five teams and they have had 61 Shots inside the Box.
Manchester City are third behind Spurs with 11.45 xG during this run. They have had only 14 Big chances which is the lowest amongst the five teams but they have registered 78 shots inside the box which is the highest amongst the five teams and 2nd highest overall.
Liverpool rank 4th for Expected Goals with 10.66 xG, 21 Big Chances, and 57 Shots inside the box.
Brentford finish at the bottom for Team underlying data with 10.02 xG from the last 6 games. They have had a respectable 20 Big chances and 62 Shots inside the box.
Further Read: FPL GW9 Wildcard Team & Drafts to Consider | Wildcard Guide
Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW9
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.
We will use DraftHound’s odds for a Team scoring at least one goal in the Gameweek and the Odds of Scoring more than 2.0 goals in the Gameweek as a whole.
Manchester City are top with a whopping 95% odds of at least 1 goal in Gameweek one and 67% odds of scoring 2+ goals in FPL GW9 vs Southampton(H). Their odds are excellent because Southampton have conceded the 2nd most goals(18) & xGC(16.8) in the league this season.
Chelsea are 2nd in the table and have 86% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and only a 38% odds of scoring 2+ goals as they face Newcastle at home.
Brentford & Spurs are joint 3rd in the table and have 83% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and 33% odds of scoring 2+ goals as they face Ipswich & Spurs respectively in GW9.
Liverpool finish at the bottom with 71% odds of at least 1 goal in the Gameweek and 17% odds of scoring 2+ goals this week against Arsenal(A). Liverpool’s odds are low because of the fact that they’re playing Arsenal away from home.
Further Read: FPL GW9 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 9 Captain Picks
In the Fourth Phase of the article, I have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.
Haaland is comfortably top in the projection rank table with an anytime returns projection of 77% and a 9.0 points projection in GW9 vs Southampton. Palmer is 2nd and has 69% anytime returns & a 7.7 points projection.
Salah & Mbeumo are joint 3rd with Salah having an anytime returns projection of 58% and a points projection of 6.2. Mbeumo has an anytime returns projection of 56% and a points projection of 6.3.
Son is last with the Spurs attacker having an anytime returns projection of 53% and a points projection of 6.1.
Further Read: FPL GW9 Tips- Haaland Dilemma, Solanke Situation and More
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 9 Captaincy metrics
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). According to our captaincy metrics, the candidate with the lowest cumulative rank factor is the ideal captaincy option.
Haaland takes the top spot with a CRF of only 6. Palmer is a close second with a CRF of 8. Haaland and Palmer are separated by a CRF of only 2. Son is 3rd this week with a CRF of 14 whereas Salah & Mbeumo are last with a CRF of 15.
Note: Son is most likely ruled out of FPL GW9, Kindly ignore him in the captaincy metrics this week.
On our skipper, our Head Coach explained, “Sonny’s still not right, still not feeling 100 per cent. He won’t train today, so he’s unlikely for this weekend and we’ll see after that.” Latest on Son from the Spurs website
Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW9
FPL GW9: Player Performance Analysis by Position & Price Point
FPL GW9 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
FPL Gameweek 9 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
Top FPL Gameweek 9 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW9 Wildcard Team & Drafts to Consider | Wildcard Guide
Top FPL GW9 Differential Picks to Consider Ahead of Deadline
FPL GW9 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats
FPL GW9 Tips- Haaland Dilemma, Solanke Situation and More
FPL GW9 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
Link to all our FPL GW9 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!
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AK - Anurag Khetan
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