Welcome to the GW7 captaincy metrics blog. Haaland who topped our captaincy metrics last week blanked for the first time this season, overall it was a tough gameweek with an average of only 50 points with Palmer the only one going big(Well done if you’re amongst those that had him in their team or captained him). Captaincy this week is interesting with a couple of good options to consider. The Top FPL Gameweek 7 Captain picks include Haaland, Salah, Palmer, Saka & Havertz. Let’s see who tops the captaincy metrics this week.
Will it be Haaland or Saka or someone else?
This season the metrics has a 5/6 return record. Last season the metrics finished with 560 points(26/38 returns). The metrics had a 31/37 “returns record” in the 22/23 season and a 30/38 “returns record” in the 21/22 season. Do follow the man behind the metrics @AK_FPL1(Do follow him on Twitter)
Total metrics points: 10 + 34 + 34 + 26 + 12 + 4 = 120 pts
Note: “Returns” ~ player topping the metrics getting points returns and not necessarily the highest scoring option of the week.
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FPL GW7 Captaincy Metrics
FPL GW7 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd
This week the top five are very interesting with Haaland still topping the FPL GW6 captaincy poll in spite of blanking in GW6. Saka and Palmer take the 2nd and 3rd place with 16% of the votes each. Salah is fourth this week in the captaincy poll and will be playing Crystal Palace away from home. Havertz is fifth in the captaincy poll. The top five that will be going into the captaincy metrics this week will be Haaland, Salah, Palmer, Saka and Havertz.
Further Read: FPL GW7 Scout Selection Based on Stats, Analysis and Matchups
Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 7 Captain picks
Haaland is running away with the lead six weeks into the season with an xG of 6.25 & 10 big chances in the opening five games. His 29 shots inside the box is also the highest amongst all players.
Salah is 2nd with an xG of 3.89, 7 big chances & 19 shots in the box, he’s also created 14 chances in the last six games.
Palmer who went big in GW6 is 3rd with an xG of 3.66 and has had 7 big chances. He’s also created 17 chances which is the 2nd highest amongst the five players.
Havertz is 4th with an xG of 3.60 and he has eight big chances which is one more than Salah and Palmer. He’s also had 16 shots in the box.
Bukayo Saka is only 5th with an xG of 1.74 with 14 shots inside the box & three big chances. He’s however top amongst all players for chances created(20). He created a whopping 8 chances in GW6 vs Leicester which is 2nd highest amongst all players only behind Kulusevski(9).
Further Read: FPL Gameweek 7 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
Underlying Numbers of the Candidate’s Teams
Liverpool are top with an xG of 12.64 they have also got the joint most big chances(24) and shots inside the box(71) since the beginning of the season.
Man City are 2nd behind Liverpool with an xG of 12.37, they have had only 19 big chances which is the lowest amongst the four teams but are joint top with Liverpool for shots inside the box.
Chelsea are 3rd with an xG of 12.19, 54 shots inside the box & 24 big chances, they have had the most big chances as well in the last six games. Only an xG of 0.45 separates the top three.
Arsenal is last with an xG of 10.26 in the opening five games, with 23 big chances and 65 shots inside the box. The Gunners numbers are understandably low, but that’s mainly due to their tough run of games so far. They should catch up with the stats leaders in the coming games.
Further Read: Top FPL GW7 Differential Picks to Target Ahead of GW7 Deadline
Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW7
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.
We will use DraftHound’s odds for a Team scoring at least one goal in the Gameweek and the Odds of Scoring more than 2.0 goals in the Gameweek as a whole.
Arsenal are top with a 93% odds of at least 1 goal in gameweek one and 62% odds of scoring 2+ goals in FPL GW6 vs Southampton at home.
Man City are 3rd in the table and have 91% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and only a 55% odds of scoring 2+ goals as they face Fulham at home.
Chelsea are 4th in the table and have 87% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and 42% odds of scoring 2+ goals as they face Nottingham Forest at home.
Liverpool are last in the table and have 86% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and 40% odds of scoring 2+ goals this week against Crystal Palace(A).
Further Read: FPL GW7 Tips – Palmer, Solanke Planning, Captaincy and More
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 7 Captain Picks
In the Fourth Phase of the article, I have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.
Haaland is still the top in the projection rank table with an anytime returns projection of 76% and a 8.8 points projection in FPL Gameweek 7.
Palmer is 2nd in the projections table this week with an anytime returns projection of 69% and a 7.8 points projection ahead of GW7.
Saka is 3rd with an anytime returns projection of 66% and a points projection of 7.5 ahead of a juicy home game vs Southampton(H)
Salah is 4th with an anytime returns projection of 65% and a points projection of 7.3.
Havertz is last with the Arsenal attacker having an anytime returns projection of 59% and a points projection of 6.3.
Further Read: FPL GW7 Scout Selection Based on Stats, Analysis and Matchups
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 7 Captaincy metrics
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). According to our captaincy metrics, the candidate with the lowest cumulative rank factor is the ideal captaincy option.
Haaland takes the top spot with a CRF of only 7. Salah & Palmer are joint second with a CRF of 12. Saka is 4th with a CRF of 13 & Havertz is last with a CRF of 14.
Good luck for GW7 everyone!
Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW7
FPL GW7 Tips – Palmer, Solanke Planning, Captaincy and More
FPL Gameweek 7 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
Top FPL Gameweek 7 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW7 Scout Selection Based on Stats, Analysis and Matchups
Top FPL GW7 Differential Picks to Target Ahead of GW7 Deadline
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AK - Anurag Khetan
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