FPL GW10 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups

Welcome to our FPL GW10 Scout Picks blog! GW9 was a more successful round of matches for the AAFPL Scout Picks team, with our XI scoring a massive 72 points, just 1 more than the Official FPL Scout Selection! We now lead them 6-3 going into GW10.

	GW1	GW2	GW3	GW4	GW5	GW6	GW7	GW8	GW9
AAFPL Team	84	65	92	44	59	42	59	26	72
Official FPL Team	64	96	77	46	54	39	44	46	71

As always, our Scout Picks will be based on the eye test, stats, and analysis. Let’s first take a look at the fixtures for FPL GW10.

Link to all our FPL GW10 blogs including Scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

GW10 Fixtures

FPL GW10 Scout Picks

FPL GW10 Scout Picks – Goalkeeper

The most expensive goalkeeper in FPL is our choice this week – Arsenal’s Raya (5,6m). The gunners have a real game on their hands this weekend, as they travel to the north-east to face Newcastle in GW10, but despite this, we think that Raya is the best ‘keeper this GW.

As I’ve written in almost every one of these Scout Picks posts, Arsenal are one of the best defenses in the league, but are over performing their underlying numbers so far this season. Their data is skewed however, as they have been reduced to 10 men on a number of occasions this season, meaning that opposition teams are, of course, more likely to carve out some big chances and find some space in between players as they have more men on the pitch.

What’s more, while Newcastle Away is on paper a tough fixture, the Magpies are not the same team as the one that shocked the league by sneaking into the top 4 a few seasons ago; they currently sit 12th in the table with 12 points! They’ve been struggling in both attack and defense, but it is their attack that we will focus on here…

Newcastle Offensive Numbers:

• 9 goals scored (16th)
• 8 Non-penalty goals scored (17th)
• 13.3xG (14th)

There’s a reason you’ve been hearing much less about Isak and Gordon so far this season! Over their last 5 games, Newcastle have produced 2 draws and 3 losses, making them one of the most out-of-form teams in the league. Based on these numbers, even at the fortress that is St James Park, Arteta’s men will fancy their chances of a clean sheet, and we do too!

Further Read: Best Premium FPL Assets from FPL GW10- Entry & Exit Analysis

FPL GW10 Scout Picks – Defenders

Manchester City’s Rico Lewis (4.7), Everton’s Mykolenko (4.3), and Wolves’ Ait-Nouri (4.6) make up our budget back 3 for GW10 – let’s dive straight into it!

Despite Pep’s comments on Wednesday about wanting to rest Rico Lewis at some point soon, we’ve still gone with the English fullback for GW10. City are running very very low on defenders (and on players generally!) so we expect Lewis to start against Bournemouth, and if he does, he’s a great budget option for GW10.

Even if City are down to the bare bones defensively they’re still one of the best teams in the league, and while FPL is often about finding value gems from mid-table prem teams, it’s also about recognizing that the top teams win the most games, and therefore their players often get the most points! Lewis is a great way into the City team, and offers a reasonable amount of attacking threat, along with decent clean sheet potential, while he’s not being rotated, he should be on everyone’s radar!

City face Bournemouth Away in GW10, a team who, while they started to pick up the pace in terms of goal-scoring, are still underperforming their xG. They’re profligate in front of goal, and will be limited to only a handful of chances against City, so Lewis, or any City defender for that matter, is a great option for GW10 – he delivered in GW9, we’re hoping he’ll repeat the trick with some more returns this week.

Next up is Everton’s Mykolenko. Dyche’s team play Southampton this week, and if we’ve learnt anything in the first 9 GWs of the season, it’s that the promoted teams must be targeted!

Southampton, similar to Bournemouth, have struggled to convert their xG into goals, producing 6 goals from over 10xG. As mentioned in last week’s article, rotation and injury have meant that there has been constant change in their forward line, which has perhaps contributed to their poor goal-scoring numbers.

Everton have started to pick up their form in recent weeks, drawing 3 and winning 2 in their last 5 league games, keeping 2 clean sheets and conceding just 3 goals! Dyche knows how to coach defence, and despite a poor start to the season, the fruits of their labor are finally starting to show. Mykolenko’s attacking numbers are nothing special, but he has shown in the past that he can be a valuable asset, scoring 2 goals and getting 1 assist in FPL last season.

In FPL you have to aggressively target the fixtures, which is what we’re doing with this Mykolenko pick. Everton have been in decent form, they’re a tough team to break down, and face a promoted side in GW10 – what’s not to love!

Finally, we have an FPL community favourite, Ait-Nouri. With 5 attacking returns already this season, the young Frenchman has been at the top of FPL managers wishlists for a while, with many waiting for the fixtures to turn before making a move for the fullback. GW10 is the start of a kinder run of games for Wolves, meaning that a lot of FPL players are considering getting Ait-Nouri in for his attractive fixture this week against Palace and holding him for the medium term. Eze was subbed off due to an injury in the Carabao Cup in midweek, and without him, Palace may well struggle to create chances in GW10 (and beyond)…

While Wolves are yet to keep a clean sheet this season, they’ve had a tough start to the campaign from a fixture perspective; it’s not surprising that they’ve struggled having faced 4 of the ‘big 6’, plus Villa and Forest in their first 9 GWs of the season! Ait-Nouri’s 0.32xGI/90 is outstanding for a defender – it’s his attacking output that makes him such an enticing FPL prospect!

Further Read: FPL GW10 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats

FPL GW10 Scout Picks – Midfielders

Our midfield this week is made up of many familiar faces! Premiums Palmer (10.9m) and Salah (12.7m) are joined by Mbeumo (7.4m) and McNeil (5.8m) to complete a very right-winger-heavy midfield!

Salah has been absent from our Scout selection teams over the past couple of weeks, and has punished us big time! With just 2 blanks, and a total of 11 attacking returns across the first 9 games of the campaign, the Egyptian king has quickly reminded us of why he is one of the highest-scoring FPL players every year! Slot’s side face Brighton this weekend, who they were able to dispatch in mid-week (Salah rested) with a much-rotated side.

While his underlying numbers have cooled from where they were at the start of the season, he is still averaging 0.64xG and 0.34xA per 90, the highest of any Liverpool player. He also takes the most shots per 90 and plays the second most key passes per 90 (behind Trent) in the squad – he is by far the best Liverpool offensive asset. While Gakpo, Diaz, Darwin, and Jota are all great players, they are all minutes risks, as Slot has shown that he is not afraid to rotate, particularly on the left-hand, and players that are minutes risks are not great assets in FPL! Therefore it’s had to look past Salah when considering which Reds asset to go for, even at such a high price-point.

Further Read: Best Premium FPL Assets from FPL GW10- Entry & Exit Analysis

You’ve heard me go on and on about Mbeumo over the past few weeks, as he’s been a constant in our Scout selection team since GW6, so I’ll keep it short. 5 attacking returns since GW5, 2 double-digit hauls so far this season, and great underlying numbers; there’s a reason he keeps making our scout picks team!

Mbeumo stats:

• 8 goals
• 0.42xG/90
• 0.27xA/90
• 2.33 shots/90
• 7.6 FPL points per match

Palmer retains his place in the team after another great performance in GW9 (that pass to Neto was unreal), with Chelsea facing Manager-less United. While United will likely get some form of new manager bounce, and put up more of a fight against Chelsea than they have in recent weeks, Chelsea are head and shoulders above them at this moment in time.

Palmer is behind only Salah when it comes to FPL points per match and has been on fire recently, with 12 attacking returns in the first 9 GWs of the season. He is Chelsea’s talisman and has proven time and time again that he can deliver haul after haul week in and week out. Last season against United Palmer scored 4 goals and delivered a massive 28 points for managers who backed him against the Red Devils – so we’re backing him this time around!

Finally, we have our budget midfield option: Facundo Buonanotte is the 2nd highest-scoring Leicester City player in FPL this season only behind the legendary Jamie Vardy. The Argentinian attacker has scored 3 goals & picked up 2 assists in just eight games(only six starts), he’ll be up against Ipswich in GW10 who have conceded the highest xGC(20.9) and the 2nd most goals(20) so far this season. Ipswich have conceded 28 chances through their left flank in the last six games(3rd most in the league) which is where Buonanotte operates giving him a great matchup.

Further Read: FPL GW10 Tips – Hold or Sell Haaland/Trent, Fixture Analysis & More

FPL GW10 Scout Picks – Forwards

Our dangerous front line is made up of Raul (5.7m), Cunha (6.5m), and of course, our captain (again) Haaland (15.2).

Haaland is Haaland. Neither his selection nor the fact he’s our captain again needs any explanation. He’s back in amongst the goals after his recent drought, and could do some real damage to Bournemouth in GW10. We managed to just about squeeze him into the team alongside Salah and Palmer!

Cunha next. A debut in the AAFPL Scout selection team for the Wolves striker, who has been in excellent form lately, scoring in 2 of the last 3. He is averaging just over 0.3xG/90 and around 0.25xA/90, taking him over the 0.5xGI/90 threshold. The Brazilian has scored 4 goals already this season, despite Wolves being woeful, so hopefully with the fixtures getting better he’ll be able to increase that tally (preferably in GW10!).

Speaking of woeful, Wolves’ opponents in FPL GW10 are Glasner’s Palace, who have started to finally get some results, after an appalling start to the season. The underlying data for Palace doesn’t look too bad, but on the pitch they’ve looked stale, lifeless, and bereft of ideas. Wolves will be hopeful of picking up their first win of the season in GW10, and despite Palace’s rejuvenation in the past week or so, we’re backing the Wolves man to deliver!

The final player of our AAFPL GW10 Scout Selection team is Raul Jimenez, who disappointed last week with his first blank of the season. We had him in our team last week, and he retains his place this week, as his numbers and recent form are too hard to ignore!

His xG/90 of 0.85 is bettered only by 3 players (400+ minutes), Wissa, Archer, and of course, Haaland, not to mention his 0.44xA/90. Brentford have conceded the 4th most goals in the league, so Jiminez will surely be licking his lips at the prospect of coming up against them in GW10! He is still the 7th highest-scoring forward in the game, despite having blanked in GW9, and should be on everyone’s radar as a budget option with some great fixtures all the way up until GW13.

Full FPL GW10 Scout Picks

Please note that our bench includes a 4.0m ‘keeper, a 2 x 4.0m defender, and a 4.5m midfielder, as all of the players selected are expected to start and have significant game-time in FPL GW10.

Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW10

FPL Gameweek 10 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
Top FPL GW10 Differential Picks(<10% TSB) to Consider Ahead of GW10 Deadline
FPL GW10 Tips – Hold or Sell Haaland/Trent, Fixture Analysis & More
Top FPL Gameweek 10 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW10 Team Selection- Transfer Plans and Strategy
FPL GW10 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis, and Matchups
Best Premium FPL Assets from FPL GW10- Entry & Exit Analysis
FPL GW10 Transfer Targets and Watchlist
FPL GW10 Tips & Ultimate Guide: Differentials, Captaincy & More

Link to all our FPL GW10 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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