Top FPL Gameweek 4 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics

Welcome to the GW4 captaincy metrics blog, the international break is finally coming to an end and the focus shifts to GW4. GW3 saw both Haaland & Salah register 17-point hauls, they have registered the same points(41) after the first three games too. The Top FPL Gameweek 4 Captain picks include Haaland, Salah, Joao Pedro, Eze, and Palmer. Let’s see who tops the very first captaincy metrics of the season.

Will it be Haaland or Salah or someone else?

This season the metrics has a 3/3 return record. Last season the metrics finished with 560 points(26/38 returns). The metrics had a 31/37 “returns record” in the 22/23 season and a 30/38 “returns record” in the 21/22 season. Do follow the man behind the metrics @AK_FPL1(Do follow him on Twitter)

Total metrics points: 10 + 34 + 34 = 78 pts

Note: “Returns” ~ player topping the metrics getting points returns and not necessarily the highest scoring option of the week.

Link to all our FPL GW4 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

FPL GW4 Captaincy Metrics

FPL GW4 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd

Haaland without any surprise tops the captaincy poll this week with 56% of the votes following his 2nd hat trick of the season vs West Ham in GW3. Salah is 2nd with 29% of the votes after his 17-point haul vs Man United in GW2. The captaincy debate will undoubtedly be amongst these two this week.

The rest of the top five in the captaincy poll for FPL GW4 is completed by Joao Pedro, Palmer & Eze who all have easy fixtures in GW4.

Further Read: FPL GW4 Wildcard Team & Drafts to Consider | Wildcard Guide

Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 4 Captain picks

Haaland is running away with the lead three weeks into the season with an xG of 3.77 & 7 big chances in the opening three games. His 12 shots inside the box is also the highest amongst all players.

Salah is 2nd with an xG of 1.83, 5 big chances & 10 shots in the box which is the 2nd highest amongst all five players.

Eze who finally returned for the first time this season in GW3 is third in the table with an xG of 1.09, the palace attacker has had one big chance and 7 shots in the box. He’s also created 5 chances.

Palmer is only 4th with 2 shots inside the box, 1 big chance & an xG of 0.83. He’s however top amongst all players for chances created(11) and has already picked up 4 assists in three games.

Joao Pedro is 5th with an xG of 0.81 with 3 shots inside the box, 3 chances created & 2 big chances.

Further Read: FPL Gameweek 4 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell

Underlying Numbers of the Candidate’s Teams

Man City & Liverpool’s numbers are simply extraordinary with a whopping 7.11 xG & 7.10 xG respectively in their opening three games. Liverpool however edge out Man City for shots inside the box & big chances

Brighton are 3rd with an xG of 5.28, 34 shots inside the box & 7 big chances.

Chelsea are 4th with an xG of 5.06, the Blues have had 24 shots inside the box & 11 big chances in the opening three games.

Crystal Palace are last with an xG of 3.06 in the opening two games with only 3 big chances & 18 shots inside the box.

Further Read: FPL GW4 Tips – Salah, Isak, Gordon, Injuries, Brighton Picks, etc

Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW4

In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates. 

We will use DraftHound’s odds for a Team scoring at least one goal in the Gameweek and the Odds of Scoring more than 2.0 goals in the Gameweek as a whole.

Man City are top with a 93% odds of at least 1 goal in gameweek one and 60% odds of scoring 2+ goals in FPL GW4. Only very rarely does a team have a 60% & above odds in a single gameweek.

Liverpool are 2nd and have a 91% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and a 55% odds of scoring 2+ goals in GW4 for their home game vs Nottingham Forest(H).

Brighton are 3rd and have 89% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and a 45% odds of scoring 2+ goals this week taking the 3rd spot ahead of their home game vs Ipswich.

Crystal Palace are 4th in the table and have 83% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and a 33% odds of scoring 2+ goals against Leicester City at home.

Chelsea are last in the table and have 83% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and a 31% odds of scoring 2+ goals as they travel down south to face Bournemouth who registered a remarkable comeback win vs Everton in GW3.

Further Read: FPL GW4 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More

Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 4 Captain Picks

In the Fourth Phase of the article, I have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week. 

Haaland is top of the projection rank table with an anytime returns projection of 77% and an 8.7 points projection in FPL Gameweek 4

Salah is joint 2nd with an anytime returns projection of 72% and an 8.3 points projection ahead of GW4.

Eze is 3rd with an anytime returns projection of 61% and a points projection of 7.2.

Palmer is 4th with an anytime returns projection of 58% and a points projection of 5.2

Pedro is also joint 4th with the Brighton forward having an anytime returns projection of 54% and a points projection of 5.5.

Further Read: FPL GW4 Wildcard Team & Drafts to Consider | Wildcard Guide

Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 4 Captaincy metrics

In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). According to our captaincy metrics, the candidate with the lowest cumulative rank factor is the ideal captaincy option. 

Haaland takes the top spot with a cumulative rank factor(CRF) of 4 which is the lowest possible CRF. Salah takes the 2nd spot with a CRF of 8, having come 2nd to Haaland in all the tables. Eze & Pedro are joint 3rd with a CRF of 15. Palmer is last with a CRF of 17.

Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW4

FPL Gameweek 4 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold & Sell
Top FPL GW4 Differential Picks to Target Ahead of GW4 Deadline
FPL GW4 Wildcard Team & Drafts To Consider | Wildcard Guide
Top FPL Gameweek 4 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW4 Scout Selection Based on Stats, Analysis and Matchups
FPL Fixture Swing Analysis from GW6- Teams and Players to Target
Sleeper Draft Fantasy GW4- Best Punts and Hidden Gems
FPL GW4 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Eye Test & Stats
FPL GW4 Tips- Salah, Isak, Gordon, Injuries, Brighton Picks, etc
FPL GW4 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More

Link to all our FPL GW4 blogs including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 4 of the 2024/25 FPL Season?

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