Welcome back to another season of captaincy metrics, the 24/25 FPL season is fast approaching & this time there is a lot of excitement for the return of FPL with drafts looking a lot diverse with a wide range of players to select. Captaincy is once going to be a crucial factor this season and the Top FPL Gameweek 1 Captain picks include Haaland, Salah, Isak, Saka, and Jota. Let’s see who tops the very first captaincy metrics of the season.
Will it be Haaland or Salah or someone else?
Last season the metrics finished with 560 points(26/38 returns). The metrics had a 31/37 “returns record” in the 22/23 season and a 30/38 “returns record” in the 21/22 season. Do follow the man behind the metrics @AK_FPL1(Do follow him on Twitter)
Note: “Returns” ~ player topping the metrics getting points returns and not necessarily the highest scoring option of the week.
Link to all our 2024/25 Pre-Season articles including all team pre-season friendly updates, team previews, fixture analysis, position-wise analysis, differentials, players to target, budget enablers and more. Completely free to access as well!
FPL GW1 Captaincy Metrics
FPL GW1 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom Of the Crowd
Salah tops the captaincy poll with 39% of the votes, Since joining Liverpool Salah has returned in every single GW1 fixture & he’ll be looking to continue the run against Ipswich in GW1.
Salah record in GW1:
- 23/24 vs CHE(A), 5 pts
- 22/23 vs FUL (A), 12 pts
- 21/22 vs NOR (A), 17 pts
- 20/21 vs LEE (H), 20 pts
- 19/20 vs NOR (H), 12 pts
- 18/19 vs WHU (H), 8 pts
- 17/18 vs WAT (A), 10 pts
Isak is in the 2nd place with 30% of the votes against newly promoted Southampton. Haaland is only 3rd with his price(15 Mil) and fixture(vs Chelsea) making FPL managers look for other captaincy options. The captaincy poll is rounded off by Jota & Saka. Jota is set to start up front for Liverpool & Saka is all set to start after featuring in the last two friendlies for Arsenal.
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Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 1 Captain picks
Note: We have used the last six games data from the 2023/24 season.
Haaland is top of the table with an xG of 7.46 in the last six games, Haaland has also had 24 shots inside the box and 12 big chances. The Man City forward has also had 24 shots inside the box in the last six games of last season which is the highest amongst the five players in comparison.
Haaland was involved in all pre-season games and scored five goals including a hat trick against GW1 opponents Chelsea.
Isak is 2nd ahead of Saka registering an xG of 4.40 in the last six games along with 10 big chances, and 15 goal attempts in the box.
Saka is third with an xG of 2.96, The Arsenal attacker has also created 20 chances and has registered 19 goal attempts in the box(Last six games of last season)
Salah is only 4th with five big chances in the last six games and an xG of 2.93.
Jota is last with an xG of 2.04 in the last six games. The Liverpool attacker registered 15 goal attempts in the box, had four big chances, and created 7 chances(Last six games of last season)
Further Read: Top FPL GW1 Differential Picks to Target Ahead of GW1 Deadline
Underlying Numbers of the Candidate’s Teams
Newcastle have registered an xG of 14.86 during the last six games and take up the top spot. They have had 71 shots inside the box and 27 big chances which is also the highest amongst the five teams in the table.
Liverpool are 2nd in the table with an xG of 14.70. The Merseyside team have also registered 100 goal attempts in the box and had 20 big chances in the last six games.
Man City are only 4th in the table with an xG of 13.66. Pep’s team had registered 68 shots inside the box and 20 big chances in the last six games of last season.
Arsenal are 5th with an xG of only 13.54 and have had 20 big chances in the last six games along with 90 goal attempts in the box.
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Fixture Difficulty of the candidate team in FPL GW1
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.
We will use DraftHound’s odds for a Team scoring at least one goal in the Gameweek and the Odds of Scoring more than 2.0 goals in the Gameweek as a whole.
Arsenal are top with a 91% odds of at least 1 goal in gameweek one and 55% odds of scoring 2+ goals in FPL GW1.
Liverpool have a 91% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and a 52% odds of scoring 2+ goals in their opening game of the season against Ipswich.
Newcastle have 91% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and a 50% odds of scoring 2+ goals this week taking the 4th spot.
Man City are 5th in the table and have 85% odds of at least 1 goal in the gameweek and a 36% odds of scoring 2+ goals against Chelsea.
Further Read: FPL GW1 Scout Selection Based on Stats, Analysis and Matchups
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 1 Captain Picks
In the Fourth Phase of the article, I have used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points Tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.
Haaland is joint top of the projection rank table with an anytime returns projection of 69% and a 7.2 points projection in FPL Gameweek 1
Isak is also joint top with an anytime returns projection of 69% and a 7.2 points projection ahead of GW1.
Salah is third with an anytime returns projection of 68% and a points projection of 7.5.
Saka takes the 4th spot having an anytime returns projection of 61% and a points projection of 7.0
Jota takes the last spot with the Liverpool attacker having an anytime returns projection of 55% and a points projection of 5.4.
Further Read: Best £6.5m FPL Midfielders Comparison for 2024/25 FPL Season
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 1 Captaincy metrics
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). According to our captaincy metrics, the candidate with the lowest cumulative rank factor is the ideal captaincy option.
Isak takes the top spot with a cumulative rank factor(CRF) of 8. Salah and Haaland share the 2nd spot with a CRF of 11, Saka & Jota are 4th & 5th with a CRF of 13 & 14 respectively.
It’s a close captaincy metrics to begin the season, good luck for the 24/25 FPL season!
Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW1 of the 2024/25 FPL Season
FPL Gameweek 1 Articles:
Top FPL GW1 Differential Picks(<10% TSB) To Target Ahead Of GW1 Deadline
FPL GW1 Scout Selection- Top Picks for GW1 with Stats and Analysis
Best FPL Drafts with Salah + Haaland with Pros/Cons and Key Notes
AllAboutFPL FPL GW1 Team Reveal with Key Notes
Top FPL Gameweek 1 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL Team Structure Analysis with Drafts and Ratings
FPL GW1 Tips- Best Formations & Structure, Haaland + Mo?, More
Must Read articles:
Premier League Penalty & Set Piece Takers | 2024/25 PL Season
2024/25 Pre-Season Summary of All 20 Premier League Teams
Best FPL Rotational Pairs and Combinations for 2024/25 FPL Season
Best FPL Budget Enablers For The 2024-25 FPL Season
List of Free to Join Prize FPL Mini Leagues Ahead of 24/25 Season
List of Creative FPL Team Names for the 2024/25 FPL Season
Best £6.5m FPL Midfielders Comparison For 2024/25 FPL Season
Team wise Best FPL Differentials(<10% TSB) for the 2024/25 Season
Best Liverpool FPL Assets to Target for FPL GW1
2024/25 FPL Season – Teams & Players to Target | Fixture Analysis
Best FPL Picks Outside Top 6 Teams | 2024/25 FPL Season
2024/25 FPL Season- New Rules & Changes | What’s New in FPL?
Players to Avoid in FPL GW1 Drafts
Underpriced FPL Assets from Traditional Big 6 Teams
Ultimate 2024/25 FPL Pre-Season Guide: Tips, Preview & More
GW1 Drafts and Analysis:
AllAboutFPL FPL GW1 Team Reveal with Key Notes
204/25 Season FPL Team Structure Guide with Drafts & Ratings
Best FPL Drafts with Salah + Haaland with Pros/Cons and Key Notes
Initial FPL GW1 Drafts for the 24/25 FPL Season with Pros & Cons
Position-Wise Analysis:
Defenders and Goal Keepers series:
Best FPL Goalkeepers to Target For The 2024/25 FPL Season
Best £4.0 Million FPL Defenders For The 2024/25 FPL Season
Best £4.5 Million FPL Defenders for the 2024/25 FPL Season
Best £5-5.5 Million FPL Defenders for the 2024/25 FPL Season
Best Premium FPL Defenders for the 2024/25 FPL Season(>=6.0 million)
Midfielders Series:
Best Premium FPL Midfielders (£8.0 – £12.5 Million) | 24/25 Season
Best Mid-Priced FPL Midfielders (£6.5 -£7.5 Million) | 24/25 Season
£4.5 Million FPL Midfielders Watchlist for the 2024/25 FPL Season
Best Budget FPL Midfielders (£5.0 -£6.0 Million) | 24/25 Season
Forwards Series:
Best Premium FPL Forwards Analysis Ahead Of 2024/25 Season
Best FPL Budget Forwards (£4.5 – £5.5 Million) | 24/25 FPL Season
Best FPL Mid Priced Forwards (£6 – £7 Million) | 24-25 Season
Best FPL Mid Priced Forwards (£7.5 – £8 Million) | 24-25 Season
If you’re new to FPL, here is a link to all our FPL Beginners Guide including FPL Beginner’s Guide- How to play?, Bench boost, Team value, Triple captain, Effective ownership, Price Changes, Free Hit, Bonus Points, and more.
Link to all our 2024/25 Pre-Season articles including all position-wise analysis, team previews, fixture analysis, position-wise analysis, and more. Completely free to access as well!
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AK - Anurag Khetan
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