Welcome to FPL GW19 Transfer Trends! This is a weekly series where we take a bit of time to analyze some of the major transfer trends on FPL prior to the deadline.
Managers take a short break after the craziness that is blank Gameweek 18, with only 4 fixtures played! Some managers profited, maybe on the use of the Free Hit chip, while some may have succumbed to the low-scoring nature of the blank gameweek. With FPL’s recent announcement of an extra free-hit chip, this could be a huge advantage for managers as we may continue to see more major postponements in the coming gameweeks.
This week, we can see the transfer trends show people buying players from Arsenal, Man City, Watford, Spurs, and Liverpool. The top 5 transfers OUT come from Liverpool, West Ham United, Leicester, and Man City.
Before going further, Do vote in this week’s FPL GW19 allaboutfpl captaincy poll. The same will be available in the captaincy analysis and metrics blog written by@AK_FPL1. The metrics has a 17/18 record this year. Last week the metric predicted Cancelo as the best captaincy candidate and he returned a big haul in GW18. Stay tuned for the GW19 Captaincy metric to see who tops it. Link to all our FPL Gameweek 19 blogs.
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The results and the captaincy metric blog will be published soon based on the votes.
FPL Transfers Gameweek 19 Deadline
Sunday 26th December 2021 at 11:00 AM BST
We will take a look at the players that managers are rushing to get in their teams, as well as the players managers are booting out. Then, we will dive into three main transfer combinations that could be decent moves to make ahead of the upcoming gameweek.
RECAP of GW18 TRANSFER TRENDS
Toney (0 points) to Watkins (0 points) ❌
Vardy (0 points) to Lacazette (5 points) ✅
Mbeumo (0 points) to Foden (0 points) ❌
Some relatively stinky picks from GW18 😥 The sudden postponement of the Villa game was not very favourable. But, as always, we move onto GW19.
Top Transfers Ins and Outs Ahead of FPL GW19
Van Dijk’s illness doubt sees him top the transfers out list, with 126k managers shipping him out. Antonio’s positive COVID test sees him 2nd on the list, with 99k managers looking elsewhere for forward options.
Jamie Vardy’s hamstring doubt and consecutive blanks sees 85k managers wanting to replace the Leicester forward. And, with news of Liverpool’s fixture postponement, 83k managers are quick to replace Salah. 75k managers were not impressed with Bernardo Silva’s blank against Newcastle as they look elsewhere for returns.
On the flip side, Arsenal youngster Martinelli makes it to the top of the transfers in list, with 326k managers impressed with his two goals scored against Leeds. Cancelo, after scoring a goal, an assist, and keeping a clean sheet in his return from suspension, sees 224k managers already bringing him back in.
Despite the Watford fixture postponement, 116k managers have already brought in Watford forward Dennis. Son’s goal against Liverpool in GW18 has prompted 107k managers to bring him in ahead of the Spurs fixture against Crystal Palace. And, despite Liverpool’s fixture postponement, 100k managers have brought in Jota after his goal against Spurs in GW18.
The 3 transfer combinations we will be focusing on are: Gallagher to Martinelli, Rudiger to Cancelo, and Vardy to Ronaldo.
Top Three FPL GW19 Transfer Trends Combinations
FPL GW19 Transfer Combination 1:
Conor Gallagher (£6.1) to Gabriel Martinelli (£5.3)
Facing a Spurs side who are confident coming off of a 2-2 draw against Liverpool, 9.9% of Gallagher owners are making the switch to an interesting differential from Arsenal: Gabriel Martinelli.
The Brazilian youngster has impressed owners with 5 returns in the last 6 games, scoring 3 goals and 2 assists in that period. In the last gameweek alone against Leeds, Martinelli scored 2 goals, rewarding owners who took a punt on the Arsenal midfielder with a 15 point haul.
The debate amidst FPL managers at the moment is which Arsenal midfielder to go for among the likes of Emile Smith Rowe, Bukayo Saka, Martin Odegaard, and Gabriel Martinelli. At this point in time, Odegaard and Martinelli are the two more similarly priced assets, so we will be running a comparison below:
At a glance, we can see that Odegaard takes up a more creative role on the pitch, while Martinelli gets more of the attacking threat at goal. I like both assets, but, if I had to pick one for a good punt, Martinelli would edge it slightly for me.
With his total of 16 shots, 15 of them were taken in the box! With 6 big chances and a 21% goal involvement, I like the look of Martinelli as a decent differential pick from the Arsenal squad.
Who do Arsenal face in GW19?
Arsenal play Norwich away in GW19. Norwich’s GW18 fixture was postponed, and, despite the hopes of a resurgence in form under Dean Smith, it seems that Norwich remain a team that are shaky at the back.
They are 2nd worst for total shots conceded (255), 162 of which were conceded in the box. They are also 3rd worst for total goals conceded (34) and have an expected goals conceded of 1.8 (3rd worst per appearance). Should fare well for those who take a punt on Martinelli.
FPL GW19 Transfer Combination 2:
Antonio Rudiger (£6.2) to Joao Cancelo (£6.8)
Despite their defensive form in the earlier half of the season, the last few games have shown a regression in the stability of the Chelsea defense, only keeping 1 clean sheet in the last 6 games. Which makes it no surprise why 8.2% of Rudiger owners are making the swap to City’s Joao Cancelo.
After serving his one game suspension in GW17, Cancelo made his return in GW18 against Newcastle with a glorious 18 point haul, where he scored 1 goal, 1 assist, and kept a clean sheet. Lucky managers who took the armband off of the likes of Salah and placed it on Cancelo were greatly rewarded.
Cancelo remains the best defender in terms of total shots taken (39), shots on target (15), and xG (3.26). He is 2nd best for entries into the box (115), 2nd for big chances created (5), and 3rd best for touches in the box (43).
He is arguably one of the best premium defenders to own alongside Alexander-Arnold. For managers looking to play the free hit chip in GW19, Cancelo is a great pick over TAA who has a blank this gameweek.
Who do Man City face in GW19?
Man City play Leicester at home in GW19. Leicester have only kept 2 clean sheets this season, and they are worst for shots for headed attempts conceded (47), 4th worst for total shots conceded (247), 4th worst for shots in the box conceded (164).
In terms of Man City’s defense, they are best for total shots conceded (114), shots in the box conceded (72), shots on target conceded (36), big chances conceded (12), goals conceded (9), and clean sheets (11). Safe to say City are one of the strongest, if not the strongest, defense in the league at the moment.
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FPL GW19 Transfer Combination 3:
Jamie Vardy (£10.5) to Cristiano Ronaldo (£12.5)
Vardy’s hamstring doubt and consecutive blanks have seen 19% of managers make the change to United forward Ronaldo. Provided Man United’s GW19 fixture is not postponed, this could be a great fixture to bring Ronaldo in, especially on a Free Hit team.
United’s last two fixtures were postponed, which hopefully meant that the United players are well rested and healthy for the upcoming fixtures. In the reverse fixture, Ronaldo made his debut for his return at United, where he rewarded new owners with a 13 point haul with 2 goals scored. What a way to make his return to the Premier League!
Among all forwards, Ronaldo is best for total shots (46), shots on target (19), shots in the box (39), and big chances (12). Given the uncertainty of the United squad at the moment, Ronaldo should be one of the more nailed picks under Rangnick.
Who do Man United face in GW19?
United play Newcastle away in GW19. Newcastle have not put up the best defensive stats as of late, being the worst for total shots conceded (286), worst for shots in the box conceded (175), worst for big chances conceded (53), and worst for goals conceded (41). Newcastle also concede 43% of their chances down the center.
While there is an element of uncertainty with fixtures and rescheduling, for those looking for a great fixture to target in GW19, it would be this fixture, with the standout pick being Ronaldo.
That has been 3 potential transfer combinations that FPL managers could consider prior to the Gameweek 19 deadline. Hope this blog provided a bit of insight on viable FPL moves you could take!
Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL Gameweek 19:
FPL GW19 Ultimate Guide: Postponements, Double and Blank GWs, Tips, Differentials, Comparisons, Captaincy
FPL Free Hit Chip Explained | Extra FH Chip | FPL Guide
GW18 Sunday Fixture Wise Review | Players That Caught Our Eye
FPL GW18 Saturday Fixture Wise Review | Players That Caught Our Eye
FPL History: Highest Scoring FPL Players Each Year Since The First FPL Season In 2002/03
What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 19?
We’ll be covering fixture analysis, differential picks, GW19 Wildcard drafts, captaincy metrics, player comparisons, expected line up, press conference summaries, Scout Picks for FPL GW19, and more. Keep checking allaboutfpl.com for all our blogs and subscribe to our free newsletter through the link below. We’ll also be posting regularly about the same on our social media accounts so follow us on Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook keep our notification ON.
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Nick Khor (FPL Nitro)
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