Teams and Players to Consider for the Final stretch of FPL Season | FPL GW31 ~ GW38

This blog is written by Sankalp Nanda popularly known as @understandingfootball8 on Twitter. He’s been a football fan for quite a long time and loves discussing tactics, formations and put them to use to become a better FPL manager. He has also achieved the feat of India’s Manager of the week GW8 this season. Do give him a follow on Twitter. Sankalp is a resident writer here on allaboutfpl.com, Do follow all his works here.

This is it- the final stretch for FPL season 20-21!! 

One of the most fun-filled seasons in recent times is slowly coming to an end now albeit still with opportunities to give us more blanks & double GWs. This has been a season where a lot of us have struggled especially with long-term planning failing with sudden game cancellations, player pull-outs all amidst a global pandemic. However, as we enter the final laps perhaps, a lot of managers are still eyeing FPL GW31 as a pit-stop to refuel & getting ready for a mad rush to the touchline. (Ok, enough with the F1 terminologies, really :D)

With a sudden swing in fixtures for several clubs, FPL GW31 seems an astute opportunity for many FPL managers to utilize their second Wild Card. Around 40% of the managers in the Top 100k still have their second WC intact showing that there is a potential of a lot of Rank movements in the coming weeks.  For the managers who have fallen behind their season targets, the word “Differential” would be looming heavy in their Wild Card strategies. This article has been written specially to help these upside chasing managers to look at options that may not be as popular but surely have the potential to give good returns. For this article, we will look at 5 PL teams, their suitable fixtures & key assets who are currently under-owned.

Five teams who have good fixtures from FPL GW31 till GW38 and the FPL assets to target

Arsenal  (GW 31-38)

Arsenal probably have the best fixtures on a long-term basis i.e. FPL GW31-38 & hence, are a team that interests me as a differential FPL manager. The highest owned Arsenal asset is currently Aubameyang with 11.6 % ownership as I write this article towards the end of FPL GW29. This shows you the huge opportunity we have here with Arsenal assets. On the downside, is the lack of confirmation we have for players as Arteta keeps shifting priorities between PL & Europa and much of the team is still prone to rotation. However, there can be some method even in the madness here. 

Since Arsenal have not had a clean sheet now since FPL GW21, betting on their defense can be risky. However, they do face teams like Sheffield, Newcastle, West Brom & Crystal Palace, 4 of the bottom 5 clubs this season from xG point of view. So best assets can be as below: –

Defence

Tierney/Leno – Both are sure shot starters to a good extent barring odd rest. Tierney still has only 6% ownership ( Post WC, he can be a popular player though) provides humongous attacking potential, and is perhaps the best defensive pick from Arsenal. Leno can be a wise choice considering current favorites, Emi & Mendy don’t have a lot of good fixtures in the same run.

Midfield

Considering the rotation & lack of form for Aubameyang, I would suggest taking a good look at the cheaper attacking assets Arsenal provides. Saka has been 2^nd most popular Arsenal asset with 9% ownership but given the dependency on him, there is a good chance he will be now used more in Europa fixtures. This leaves 2 cheap CAMs who have the explosive ability to give you both Goals as well as Assists. Odegaard at 6.0 & ownership of 2.2% & ESR at 4.2 ( Phew !!) and ownership of 2.3% can be serious 5^th midfielder considerations. My own money is on ESR as he seems to be already preferred in PL and has shown recent willingness to go for Goals.

Forward

Lacazette can be a brilliant starting forward differential for FPL managers having scored 27 points in his last 3 starts against West Ham, Spurs & Leicester. He has already scored 11 goals with 2 assists despite playing lesser minutes than Aubameyang.

Further Read: FPL GW31 Foundations of a Wildcard Team | Key Players to Consider

Liverpool (GW 31-38)

For the last 3 seasons, our Liverpool picks have been around 4 players -Salah, Mane, Trent & Robbo but this season has been disappointing for all of them. To add, with UCL still on the line as well, it is difficult to trust Liverpool assets completely, rest is likely to come for some of the mentioned players considering some easy fixtures. Over the long term, however, Liverpool picks are supreme and will definitely regain much of ownerships post 2^nd Wildcard.

Defence

With injuries & constant rotation, Liverpool’s defense has been really underwhelming this season and a shadow of the last 2 years. So, while at GW1, Trent was at more than 50% ownership, both Trent & Robbo lie at 13% ownership now. Kabak is the recent cheaper entrant at 0.3% ownership while Allison remains the ever-present GK with around 6% ownership. Given the lack of surety on clean sheets, I would definitely take Trent’s attacking potential and look at him as a potential Cancelo/Dias replacement or a latter Azpi/Alonso replacement from GW35. Trent is currently 4rth highest defender when sorted by ‘Threat’ & 3^rd highest when sorted by ‘Creativity’ with his best fixtures coming on. The potential profit here can be massive but it is an expensive bet.

For managers, looking for cheap replacements, Kabak is a good cheaper who seems settled in this side but he doesn’t seem to add much from the set pieces. Nat Phllips can be another solid differential, having shown great maturity and grit in his performances, given his height, I would love to see him attack the corners a bit more as well.

Midfield

Apart from Salah at 28%, all other midfield picks are at < 5% ownership which seems a great differential pick if done correctly. At the top of this list, we have Mane ( 11.8m) @ ownership of 4.8 % & Jota (6.6m) @ ownership of 4.1%. Mane has been seriously off form this season and would not have been a recommendation at all, apart from the fact a huge % of Liverpool’s Big Chances still fall to Mane. He is on the watchlist for me given his price range but if he scores for 1-2 games, he is a great differential to pick on. Jota again for me goes on the watchlist mostly because he came back from a long injury and is yet to show that pre-season form. He had scored 6 goals from xG of 3 in his initial part of the season which will definitely be difficult to replicate. To add, Jota from his Wolves days is again a Form player, I would always recommend picking him one week later than one week early.

Forward

No Forward picks from me as there has been uncertainty around Firminho and his knee injury. Also, we do have better options at the front than an inconsistent Firmino.

Further Read: FPL GW31 Foundations of a Wildcard Team | Key Players to Consider

West Ham United (FPL GW 32-38)

To have a team 5^th in PL with one of the best fixture runs coming on & assets available under 10% ownership is not something you find often. Yet, West Ham provides just that to FPL managers. Cresswell has been the highest performing defender and yet has an ownership of 29% followed by Antonio, Soucek & Lingard around 15% ownerships. Their fixtures see them facing Newcastle, Chelsea, Burnley, Everton, Brighton, West Brom & Southampton. For me, the West Ham defense is where the money can be minted from !!

Defence

Coufal is still available at 4.6 points while having scored a healthy 91 points so far. For defenders under 5.0, he is the 4^th on the list, and given the fixtures ahead & his surety for starts, I think Coufal is the best differential bet for West Ham. For the cheaper option, we do have Diop who is on a good run in absence of Ogbonna and seems to be playing every match till his return. At 4.3, he can be a decent short-term bet but West Ham fixtures get better towards the end & hence, it’s more down to Coufal & Dawson. My advice will be to pair one of them with Cresswell and sit back to count the points!!

Midfield/Forward

For that one final spot, Lingard is looking more and more attractive and at 14% ownership can still be a strong differential. Benrahama/Bowen are alternatives but have been rotated a lot and hence, not recommended from my side. Antonio remains an option for managers, he is known to punish weaker defenses. I would definitely look at one from Lingard / Antonio especially on that run from GW 34. 

Further Read: FPL GW31 Foundations of a Wildcard Team | Key Players to Consider

Leicester City (GW 31-35)

Having covered 3 teams with a solid long run to the season end, we will now look at 2 teams with a good medium-term run. Leicester have a good short run from FPL GW31-35. West Ham away might be tough but they are on a good run again post Arsenal loss. Vardy/Iheanacho partnership has taken gloom off Barnes/Maddison loss and given us another brilliant differential asset to think of. With the team now playing 3-1-4-2, a double Leicester attack might even be an ultra-differential move.

Defense

Schmeichel at 5.4m @ 10% ownership is already 6th highest GK and will surely look to end in the top 5. Soyuncu at 5.3m and 3% ownership is a sure starter but Fofana does look the best option at 5Mil and a 0.4% ownership. Unfortunately, neither Castagne nor Pereira have shown any form to bet on them but that WBA match can be a good one to try a punt on either with Pereira still <1% ownership. Just as a warning note, Brendan Rodgers and his team normally have a tendency to end the season poorly & do concede a lot of goals. While the team has looked solid at the back, I would stick to 1 asset at best.

Midfield

My favorite differential asset this season has been Maddison who at 7.1m has an ownership of 4.3%. He is expected to start by FPL GW31 and especially will be interesting to see if Leicester continue this formation with Maddison slotting in as no. 10. That would definitely take the sheen off my next differential recommendation- Tielmans ( 6.5m @3.5% ownership). Maddison’s return would definitely mean tielemans goes back from his advanced role and that takes away his assist potential that we had seen off late.

Forward

Iheanacho. Currently at 5.7m price & 2.5% ownership which surely will go up by the time International Break is over. He is definitely a player in form and someone who can be a good short-term replacement for Bamford/Watkins owners. Again, this can be an explosive pairing with Vardy in your team. Vardy in away big matches is an asset that I would definitely keep and hence, Vardy seems an option till the end of the season now.

Coming off to the 5^th club we are going to review, I had 2 clubs to choose from- Chelsea (GW 31-34) & Wolves ( GW 31-35), I am taking a differential choice of Wolves as I understand Chelsea defensive assets would have crossed 10% ownership for most by the time International Break is over. 

This by no means should downplay your eagerness for Chelsea who as things stand now have everyone below 10% ownership except Mount & Chilwell. But I suspect prices for players like Azpi, Mendy, Alonso to pick up heavily and will definitely be WC favorites for FPL GW31.

Further Read: FPL GW31 Foundations of a Wildcard Team | Key Players to Consider

Wolves  (GW 31-35)

While I strongly recommend Wolves assets upto GW35, I feel you can keep them upto GW37 as well considering Everton’s poor home form this season. Wolves come across as an ultra differential team with all its assets <7% ownership. Neto leads the pack here having given his owners a very healthy 118 points this season but his form has been poor since that Chelsea win 17 GWs ago. 

He is a player who thrives on form and like my earlier recommendation for Jota, I would rather pick him one GW late than early. Having scored only 28 goals this season from 29 matches and an xG of 30, Jimenez less Wolves really don’t look potent at the front.

Defence 

3 strong defensive choices come out for me- Coady, Saiss & Patricio in that order.

Coady while is the cheapest at 4.8m@ 4.6% ownership, also has been providing good aerial threat from set-pieces and can be vital in those matches against Sheffield, West Brom, and Leeds all Wolves players on ‘Form’. Saiss has an on and off start for Wolves with his injuries as well but now seems nailed with 6 straight 90 mins matches and is again a player who provides aerial threat. Currently priced close to Coady at 4.9% @ 4.9% ownership. Patricio has had more to do this season thanks to Wolves not exactly matching their defensive sturdiness from seasons before and that has obviously helped him lead BPS for Wolves this season. Again another clever GK choice like Leno who can stand out against the likes of Emi/ Mendy over the long term.

Midfield

If I have to choose 3 Wolves assets – which obvious is a brave call. It has to be 2 defenders/GK & 1 midfielder.

While Neto has been the most popular Wolves midfielder this season, the case for Ruben Neves has been getting stronger off late. Neves is a name forgotten by most FPL managers due to high rotation since last season. However, having started 7 out of the last 8 games & a respectable 6 PPG in the same, at 1.9% ownership he can be an astute buy. At 5.1m, he is definitely cheaper and is again a quality player no doubt, and hence, not a serious risk despite Wolves being low on xG & Goals. Taking a closer look at Neto vs Neves for our readers:-

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A quick look at the GetPlaymaker app to compare both these players, I looked at the last 6 matches alone while Neves overcomes Neto mostly on account of 1 penalty in xG, Neto has supreme advantages in the way he creates chances. If we look only at home games to see how they both have developed, we see Ruben Neves has played a more advanced role in these games despite playing in 343. This has ensured his xG is high, also there is a notable improvement in xA. While for me, Neto remains the logical choice, in case there are budget issues or you want to play a logical differential- Neves at home against Sheffield, Burnley & Brighton is enticing.

So, with this, I am closing this special section on the Differential Wildcard draft. While this has been written especially for FPL managers who are chasing some good upward movement with risks. I am sure the managers who are doing really well in the season can also use some of these options to take that one step higher.

My best wishes to you guys.. see you soon in FPL GW33 !!

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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW31:

FPL GW31 Foundations of a Wildcard Team | Key Players to Consider
History Of Fantasy Football And Origin Of FPL
FPL History: Highest Scoring FPL Players Each Year Since The First FPL Season in 2002/03
FPL Tools guide for managers: Free and Paid

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What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW31 Deadline?

Our team of good writers are working relentlessly as we strive to deliver good FPL good content. Stay tuned for our Differential picks(10% TSB), Wildcard drafts, Our star writer Nima’s team reveal, FPL GW31 Captaincy analysis, and Matchups blogs. All the blogs should be out soon ahead of a Friday evening FPL GW31 Deadline.

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