There is a feeling around the FPL community that this is a very important part of our season. Not least because we have reached the halfway point, but the area of concern is the ‘Big Hitters’ are looking a bit iffy. KDB is injured, Mo Salah and Liverpool are just not at it, Bruno looks as though he is having a dip too. These things invariably is going to lead managers away from the ‘Template team’. As a result of which differentials are more important than ever before. In this blog, we look at the top FPL GW20 Differential picks to consider ahead of the deadline.
Note: All player ownership & price are from the data at the time of writing, subject to change as we move close to the FPL GW20 deadline
FPL GW20 Differential picks
Ilkay Gundogan vs West Brom(A), £5.5 TSB: 5.2%
Ilkay Gundogan was our top differential pick in the last Gameweek, he remains our first pick in FPL GW20 too. We said last week that the German is a better option than KDB, and now his stock has risen that much more following an injury to the Belgian.
In the last 7 GWs, Ilkay Gundogan has got 54 points, only Bruno Fernandes has got more(57), but he has played one game more. To put things in perspective, we are essentially bringing in a KDB at less than half the price. Furthermore, in the absence of KDB, the German midfielder will take penalties. On top of all, he is guaranteed to start, that in itself must be a lure.
Pro Tip: To make a sideways move from KDB to Gundogan is something that many FPL managers won’t consider, because of the self-created illusion based on Gundogan’s price point. We suggest you to assume that Gundogan costs 11.5 and tally his numbers up with the rest in that price bracket. Besides, it doesn’t really matter if you have 6 mil or more in the bank.
Further Read: FPL GW20 Matchups | Five Key Players Put Under the Lens Ahead of GW20
Harvey Barnes vs Everton(A), £6.8 TSB: 5.1%
It is one of most challenging choices to make for FPL GW20, whether to go for Harvey Barnes or James Maddison. Let’s compare the duo based on some numbers.
It is clear to see from the above numbers that Barnes is more of a goal threat than Maddison. Also the fact that Barnes could play up front in the absence of Vardy is something that FPL managers have to consider. One thing is for sure, Leicester’s fixtures for the next month and a half is good and it is a safe bet to bring one of their assets in to our sides.
Further Read: FPL GW20 Matchups | Five Key Players Put Under the Lens Ahead of GW20
Luke Shaw vs Sheffield United(H), £4.8 TSB: 2.0%
Manchester United’s defense has improved by a considerable margin in the last 7 GWs. The Red Devils have conceded 6 goals at that time and have kept 3 clean sheets in the process. One major reason for that has been the form of Luke Shaw, which was illustrated by his man of the match performance against Liverpool.
From an FPL point of view, Shaw has accumulated 11 bonus points through the course of this season, Bruno(22) is the only Man Utd player to have accumulated more. What is even more extraordinary is the fact that Shaw has been a part of just 4 clean sheets all season. In FPL GW20 Manchester United taken on Sheffield United, the lowest scoring team in the division. So chances of keeping a clean sheet is high!
Here comes the most juicy part. In the last 7 GWs Luke Shaw has created 3 big chances, no other defender has created more. In that time, Shaw an xA of 1.77 which again is the highest among defenders in FPL. It is safe to say that the fullback is long overdue an assist or two.
Furthermore, Manchester United have some very good fixtures coming up in the next month or so, as a result, Shaw offers a long term cheap option at the back.
Fixtures: SHU(H), ARS(A), SOU(H), EVE(H), WBA(A), NEW(H)
Further Read: FPL GW20 Matchups | Five Key Players Put Under the Lens Ahead of GW20
Bertrand Traore vs Burnley(A), £5.9 TSB: 0.5%
Aston Villa have had a difficult run of fixtures of late, but from FPL GW20 onwards they head into a tremendous run of fixtures up and till Matchday 30, with potential double gameweeks in the process too. So, now is the time to triple up on Villa. While Jack Grealish is the obvious pick, Bertrand Traore offers a cut price option and a bigger goal threat.
Traore has scored 4 goals and got an assist in the last 6 matches, and has had 2 big chances and 9 shots in the box in that time, both of which are better than that of Grealish. Only El Ghazi and Watkins have had more shots than Traore. However, El Ghazi is once again out of favor and Watkins terribly out of form, albeit he ended his drought against Newcastle. It is safe to say that the Burkinabe is the biggest goal threat for Villa at the moment.
In FPL GW20, Aston Villa take on Burnley, who are likely to be without their first choice left back Charlie Taylor, this adds to the potential for Traore.
Fixtures: BUR(A), SOU(A), WHU(H), ARS(H), BRI(A),LEI(H), LEE(A)
Further Read: FPL GW20 Matchups | Five Key Players Put Under the Lens Ahead of GW20
Other Differential picks to consider ahead of FPL GW20
Tammy Abraham is one Chelsea player who has looked in form, he has 3 goals in his last 3 starts. He takes on Wolves in FPL GW20, a team that is winless in 6 and has conceded 10 goals in the process. Abraham scored a hattrick in his last game at Molineux and he goes into this game on the back of a FA cup hattrick, which also means he is guaranteed to start
Richarlison takes on Leicester in FPL GW20, a team against whom he tends to do well against. The Brazilian has 4 goals against the foxes, against no other team has he scored more goals against. Now that Everton have Digne, James and DCL all back fit, Richarlison along with the entire Everton attack is likely to fire on all cylinders. Everton are also due to have two double gameweeks in the coming weeks.
Neal Maupay has 3 goals in his 3 starts for Brighton, and he takes on Fulham this week, a team that has been overperforming defensively in the last few matches. To put it in numbers, Fulham have accumulated an xGC of 8.85 in the last 5 games but have conceded only 5 goals. About time their luck runs out!
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Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW20:
FPL GW20 Differential picks to consider ahead of GW20 Deadline
Players to Stick With or Twist for FPL GW20
FPL GW20 Matchups | Five Key Players Put Under the Lens Ahead of GW20
FPL GW20 ~ GW25 Fixture Analysis |Best & Worst Fixtures Over The Period
All that you need to know about FPL cup
History Of Fantasy Football And Origin Of FPL
FPL History: Highest Scoring FPL Players Each Year Since The First FPL Season in 2002/03
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What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW20 Deadline?
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K K Anirudh
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