Welcome to another edition of the FPL Captaincy Metrics, as we look ahead to Gameweek 4. It’s a Chelsea triple attack on the polls today, with the obvious Haaland and an in-form Isak. Chelsea assets are popular in the FPL Community this week, but what do the metrics say?
Link to all our FPL GW4 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, best forwards, and more. Completely free to access as well!
FPL GW4 Captaincy Metrics
Cole Palmer tops the captaincy poll for the first week with a marginal 29% of the votes against Hull City (H). Teammate Joao Pedro is a close second with 28% of the votes. Erling Haaland is third with 15% of the votes as he faces Manchester United away from home. Isak is fourth with 11% of the votes against a leaky Fulham side at home, while Morgan Rogers rounds up our captaincy candidates with 6% of the votes.
Further Read: FPL GW4: Fixtures & Players to Target for Gameweek 4
Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 4 Captain Picks
For this analysis, we have used stats of the current season and will be adding stats of every gameweek until GW6. Post GW6, we will revert to the last 6 matches criteria.
Erling Haaland tops the table with 13 shots in the box, 5 big chances, and an xG of 2.47 in the season so far.
Aleksander Isak is 2nd with an xG of 2.29 in the season so far. He’s also had 3 big chances and 9 shots inside the box.
Joao Pedro is 3rd with an xG of 1.87 in the season so far. He’s had 3 big chances and has had 8 shots inside the box.
Morgan Rogers stands 4th with an xG of 1.17, managing 4 shot inside the box and 1 big chance.
Finally, Cole Palmer stands 5th with an xG of 1.06, managing 9 shots inside the box and 2 big chances in total.
Underlying numbers of candidate teams
Manchester City take the top spot and have registered 6.59 xG, 12 Big Chances, and 38 Shots inside the box in their opening game
Chelsea are up next with 33 shots inside the box and 10 big chances during the period, and an xG of 5.56.
Liverpool are last with 29 shots inside the box and 4 big chances during the period, and an xG of 5.41.
Further Read: Top FPL GW4 Differential Picks(<10% TSB) to Target Ahead of GW4 Deadline
Fixture Difficulty of the Candidate Team in FPL GW4
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.
We will use FantasyFootballHub’s odds for the candidate’s Team’s Expected Goals and the odds of the opposition keeping a clean sheet.
Chelsea are top and have 2.86 xG odds, and their opposition has a 8% chance to keep a clean sheet as per the market odds.
Liverpool are fourth and have 2.49 xG odds, and their opposition has a 11% chance to keep a clean sheet as per the market odds.
Lastly, Manchester City are last with 1.95 xG odds, and their opposition has a 17% chance to keep a clean sheet as per the market odds
Further Read: FPL GW4 Scout Selection- Top Picks for GW4 based on Stats and Matchups
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 4 Captain Picks
In the fourth phase of the article, we have used the Projected Points tool available at Fantasy Football Hub.
Cole Palmer is first with a points projection of 6.7 in FPL Gameweek 4 vs Hull City (H).
Joao Pedro is second with a 6.3 points projection in FPL Gameweek 4 vs Hull City (H).
Haaland is third with 5.8 projected points this Gameweek vs Manchester United (A).
Isak is fourth with a projection of 5.1 points against Fulham (H).
Finally, Rogers is last with a projection of 4.8 points in FPL Gameweek 4 vs Hull City (H).
Further Read: FPL GW4 Free Hit Guide – Tips, Players to Target and Best Drafts
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 4 Captaincy metrics
Joao Pedro is top of the captaincy metrics with a cumulative rank factor of 8. Cole Palmer is second with a CRF value of 9. Haaland is third with a CRF value of 10, while Rogers is fourth with a CRF value of 10. Finally, Isak is last with a CRF value of 15.
Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW4
FPL GW4 Wildcard Drafts – Pros, Cons, Tips and Players to Target
AllAboutFPL GW4 Team Selection- Drafts, Transfer Plans and Chip Strategy
Top FPL Gameweek 4 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW4: Fixtures & Players to Target for Gameweek 4
Top FPL GW4 Differential Picks(<10% TSB) to Target Ahead of GW4 Deadline
FPL GW4 Scout Selection- Top Picks for GW4 based on Stats and Matchups
AK’s FPL GW4 Team Reveal & Transfer Plans | 3x Top 5K Finishes
2026/27 FPL Chip Strategy Guide – First Half of the Season
FPL GW4 Free Hit Guide – Tips, Players to Target and Best Drafts
FPL GW4 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Captaincy, Differentials & More
Link to all our FPL GW4 blogs, including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!
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