Welcome back to our weekly FPL Fixtures & Players to Target series.
We now have four Gameweeks of information to work with, and GW5 is also the final Gameweek before the long three-week international break. For that reason, I would strongly recommend holding your transfers if possible. There is little point making a move now only to discover an injury or other issue during the international break.
There is also still no clear update on João Pedro from Xabi Alonso, so I would be inclined to hold for now and wait for more information. With that in mind, let’s look at the fixtures and players that stand out for Gameweek 5.
Link to all our FPL GW5 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, best forwards, and more. Completely free to access as well!
FPL GW5: Fixtures to Target
Best Expected Goals Fixtures:
Based on the market odds, these are the teams with the highest expected goals in Gameweek 5:
Team – xG
- Man City – 2.36
- Newcastle – 2.01
- Nottingham Forest – 1.88
- Liverpool – 1.84
- Everton – 1.80
- Man United – 1.80
- Arsenal – 1.80
- Leeds – 1.77
- Chelsea – 1.77
Man City and Newcastle stand out at the top, with both playing at home against Sunderland and Hull City respectively. However, there are a couple of interesting numbers underneath those fixtures. Sunderland have conceded just 10 shots on target so far, the second-lowest total in the league, after Arsenal (7). Hull have also conceded only two goals this season, although both came against Chelsea.
Hull’s 87.5% save percentage is particularly eye-catching (highest across the league so far), with 14 of the 16 shots on target they have faced being saved.
So while the fixtures suggest plenty of attacking potential for Manchester City and Newcastle, I wouldn’t automatically assume either game will turn into a goal-fest.
Best Clean-Sheet Fixtures
For clean-sheet probability, the picture is slightly different:
Team – xCS
- Man City – 48%
- Nottingham Forest – 38%
- Newcastle – 35%
- Arsenal – 34%
- Everton – 34%
- Leeds – 33%
- Spurs – 31%
For the first time in several weeks, Arsenal aren’t at the top of the clean-sheet projections. Man City, Nottingham Forest and Newcastle all have 35%+ clean-sheet odds, while Arsenal sit at 34%.
The reason is fairly obvious: Arsenal face a Brighton side that has been flying in front of goal. Brighton have scored 11 goals already (highest in the league so far), including a 5-0 win over Coventry and a 3-2 win against Man United in midweek.
That makes Arsenal defenders slightly less appealing this week compared with some of the other defensive options.
FPL GW5 Defenders to Target
Josko Gvardiol – £5.7m:
Man City are the only team with 45%+ clean-sheet odds in Gameweek 5, so naturally their defenders are going to attract attention.
Among City’s defenders, Marc Guehi and Ruben Dias have played every minute so far, while Gvardiol has played 344 of 360 minutes. None of the three have picked up defensive contribution points yet. Gvardiol and Guehi have each scored once.
Guehi actually has the stronger underlying attacking numbers, with 0.89 xG and 0.38 xA, compared with Gvardiol’s 0.22 xG and 0.12 xA. But there is a slight price difference.
Guehi costs £6.0m, while Gvardiol is available for £5.7m. Given that Gvardiol has already produced two assists as well and offers a £0.3m saving, I am slightly leaning towards Gvardiol. That saving could be particularly useful for managers who haven’t already used their wildcard and have ~1.5m lower team value than teams who wildcarded in GW3.
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Everton Defenders:
Everton have an interesting couple of fixtures coming up on either side of the international break, with Ipswich (H) and Hull (A) next. Both matches have 35%+ clean-sheet odds, making this a good opportunity to bring in an Everton defender if you’re planning to wildcard around GW6.
The choice largely comes down to budget.
Mykolenko (£4.5m) is the cheaper route, while Tarkowski (£6.1m) offers considerably more attacking potential. Tarkowski already has 39 defensive contribution points, while Mykolenko sits on 33. Branthwaite is even higher at 40.
If you have the budget, Tarkowski is my preferred option. At around 14% ownership, he isn’t exactly a differential, but he combines clean-sheet potential with a genuine route to attacking returns. For those looking to save money, Mykolenko at just 3.2% ownership is an interesting differential.
Lewis Hall – £5.2m:
Lewis Hall is my clear favourite from the Newcastle defence.
Newcastle have an excellent run of fixtures ahead:
HUL (H)
COV (A)
AVL (H)
CRY (A)
EVE (H)
They are also fifth for clean-sheet odds over the next four Gameweeks according to the Fantasy Football Hub fixture ticker, 30% xCS on average over the next 4.
Hall is competing with several other Newcastle defenders for our attention, but I prefer him to Thiaw at the moment. Dedic and Livramento are still less certain from a minutes perspective, which makes me hesitant to go there.
Hall and Thiaw have both picked up defensive contribution points in two of their four matches, but Hall has a clear advantage in attack. He has three shots and three key passes, compared with zero shots and one key pass for Thiaw. Hall’s xGI is also 0.75, compared with just 0.07 for Thiaw.
And importantly, Hall is also on corners. He has taken 10 corners already, putting him alongside De Cuyper and James among defenders with the most corners.
Nottingham Forest Defenders:
Forest also have a very interesting run over the next four:
COV (H), CRY (A), ARS (H), IPS (A)
My favourite option here is Murillo (£5.5m).
He has picked up defensive contribution points – 6/8 possible points so far, giving him a nice floor even when the attacking returns don’t arrive.
Neco Williams is another option, particularly because he is also on a few set pieces – he has taken four corners and a free kick already. Meanwhile, Munoz is worth considering if you are specifically chasing attacking upside. He currently leads Forest defenders for shots and key passes despite playing roughly half the minutes (175) of some of the others.
For me, though, Murillo remains the safest pick. Forest are averaging one goal per game so far, and all four of their goals have come away from home, so I wouldn’t expect huge attacking output from their defenders.
The combination of clean-sheet potential and defensive contribution points makes Murillo the more dependable option.
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FPL GW5 Midfielders to Target
Morgan Gibbs-White – £8.0m:
If you’re looking for an attacking player from Nottingham Forest, Gibbs-White is the obvious place to start. He leads Forest for shots, xGI, big chances created and FPL points so far. He has also already produced one goal and two assists, making him the clear attacking talisman.
The other major attraction is his involvement in set pieces. Gibbs-White is on penalties and free kicks, so there are multiple routes to points. Forest face Coventry this week, and while Brighton’s five-goal haul against Coventry last week makes the fixture look particularly attractive, I wouldn’t expect Forest to replicate that scoreline.
But if Forest do score a couple, Gibbs-White is the player that will be involved. Delap is another option and differential, but for me, Gibbs-White’s minutes and role make him the more appealing pick.
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall vs Lewis-Potter vs King:
The budget midfield bracket also has a few interesting names, particularly when looking at the upcoming fixtures.
Among the three, Dewsbury-Hall leads for shots and key passes, suggesting he is getting involved regularly in his team’s attacks. However, King has the highest xGI of the three. That is an important distinction. King is not necessarily creating more volume, but his chances have been more dangerous – he has the better xG per shot and xA per key pass.
Barnes is currently behind the other two across most of these metrics, so he would be my third choice. Between Dewsbury-Hall and King, I prefer King for the longer term, while Dewsbury-Hall is more appealing if you are specifically targeting the immediate fixtures.
FPL GW5 Forwards to Target
Thierno Barry – £5.6m:
The ~£6m forward bracket is becoming particularly interesting, especially for managers looking for a third forward alongside João Pedro and Haaland. I compared Wissa, Barry and Gonzalo for this position.
DCL was left out despite having a good fixture this week because Leeds’ fixtures become tougher afterwards. Newcastle, Fulham and Everton all have more appealing runs over the coming weeks. Delap is another name that could have been considered, but I still don’t have enough confidence in his minutes.
And once we compare the three main options, Barry stands out.
He leads Wissa and Gonzalo for:
– xG
– Shots
– Big chances
– Key passes
The team numbers are also interesting. Newcastle have scored the most goals of the three teams with seven, followed by Everton with five and Fulham with four. But Everton lead for shots on target with 21, followed by Fulham on 16 and Newcastle on 13.
This week’s fixtures add another layer. Everton face Ipswich, who have already conceded 10 goals and have allowed the third-highest number of shots on target (25).
Newcastle face Hull, who have conceded only 16 shots on target and currently boast that huge 87.5% save percentage. Fulham, meanwhile, face Man United, who have allowed 17 shots on target but have a much lower 58% save percentage.
Putting all of that together, Barry is currently my preferred option among the three. The underlying numbers are simply too good to ignore, and I would rather back the player creating the volume than chase the points already scored.
Conclusion
Gameweek 5 is an interesting one because the obvious attacking fixtures come with a few warning signs.
Man City and Newcastle top the xG projections, but Sunderland have conceded very few shots on target, while Hull have been extremely efficient at keeping shots out. Arsenal also face one of the most in-form attacking teams in Brighton, which explains why their clean-sheet odds have dropped this week.
For defenders, Gvardiol, Hall, Tarkowski and Murillo are the names I would be looking at, depending on budget and how long you want to hold them.
In midfield, Gibbs-White is the standout Forest option, while King and Dewsbury-Hall provide some interesting budget routes given the fixtures.
And up front, Barry remains my favourite among the £6m-ish forwards, particularly when you look beyond the fixture and compare the underlying numbers.
Most importantly, though, I would try to roll the transfer this week if you can. With the three-week international break coming immediately after GW5, saving the transfer gives us a much better opportunity to react to injuries, minutes concerns and any other issues that emerge before the next Gameweek.
Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW5
FPL Gameweek 5 Transfer Tips: Players to Buy, Avoid, Sell & Hold
FPL GW5 Team Selection – Wildcard and Free Hit Drafts, Notes
Best Differential Picks(<10% TSB) for FPL GW5
FPL GW5 – Fixtures and Players to Target for Gameweek 5
Top FPL Gameweek 5 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW5 Scout Selection- Top Picks for GW5 based on Stats and Matchups
AK’s FPL GW5 Team Reveal & Transfer Plans | 3x Top 5K Finishes
FPL GW5 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Captaincy, Differentials & More
Link to all our FPL GW5 blogs, including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!
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