Welcome to the season finale of the FPL Captaincy Metrics blog. We are in GW38, and personally, for me, it is the most exciting week. It ends in a jiffy, all 10 matches are at the same time, and so many positions can be swapped in the league table. Unfortunately, for entertainment purposes, the title has already been decided. However, there are European places and survival still up for grabs. Read on as we analyse the captaincy, for the last time, for the 2025/26 season of the Premier League.
Total metrics points: 14 + 4 + 18 + 26 + 10 + 32 + 16 + 26 + 4 + 26 + 4 + 4 + 4 + 28 + 4 + 26 + 32 + 4 + 4 + 8 + 12 + 4 + 2 + 10 + 12 + 14 + 4 + 30 + 4+ 4 + 20 + 4 + 26 + 4 + 14 + 22 + 18 = 498 points
FPL GW38 Captaincy Metrics
Erling Haaland tops the captaincy poll this week with 35% of the votes against Aston Villa (H). Bruno Fernandes is second with 26% of the votes. Relegation-threatened Bowen is third in the captaincy poll this week with 10% of the votes. Richarlison, who would also be fighting for survival, is 4th as he faces Everton (H). Finally, readers have picked a fitting farewell for one of the legends of the game, with Mo Salah rounding up the captaincy picks for GW38.
Further Read: FPL GW38 Transfer Targets based on Stats and Fixtures
Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 38 Captain Picks
Erling Haaland tops the table with 23 shots in the box, 10 Big chances, and an xG of 4.46 in the last six games.
Richarlison is 2nd with an xG of 1.87 in the last six games. He’s also had 6 big chances and 14 shots inside the box.
Salah is 3rd with an xG of 1.61 in the last six games. He’s had 4 big chances and has had 11 shots inside the box.
Bowen stands 4th with an xG of 0.82, managing 5 shots inside the box and no big chances in total.
Finally, Bruno stands 5th with an xG of 0.41, managing 4 shots inside the box and no big chances in total.
Further Read:FPL Gameweek 38 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold, & Sell
Underlying numbers of Candidate’s teams
Manchester City take the top spot and have registered 12.39 xG, 20 Big Chances, and 80 Shots inside the box in the last six games.
Manchester United are up next with 64 shots inside the box and 16 big chances during the period, and an xG of 10.45.
West Ham are third with 54 shots inside the box and 14 big chances during the period, and an xG of 7.16.
Liverpool are fourth with 49 shots inside the box and 14 big chances during the period, and an xG of 7.05.
Finally, Spurs are last with 53 shots inside the box and 14 big chances during the period, and an xG of 6.38.
Further Read: FPL GW38 Scout Picks based on Stats and Matchups
Fixture Difficulty of the Candidate Team in FPL GW38
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.
We will use DraftHound’s odds for a Team scoring at least one goal in the Gameweek and the Odds of scoring more than 2.0 goals in the Gameweek as a whole.
Manchester City have 89% odds to get at least one goal and 48% odds to get 2 or more Goals in GW38.
Liverpool are second with 86% odds to get at least one goal and 35% odds to get 2 or more Goals in GW38.
Spurs are third with 82% odds to get at least one goal and 25% odds to get 2 or more Goals in GW38.
West Ham are fourth with 77% odds to get at least one goal and 17% odds to get 2 or more Goals in GW38.
Manchester United are last with 75% odds to get at least one goal and 14% odds to get 2 or more Goals in GW38.
Further Read:FPL Gameweek 38 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold, & Sell
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 38 Captain Picks
In the fourth phase of the article, I used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.
Haaland is first with an anytime returns projection of 68% and a 7.5 points projection in FPL Gameweek 38 vs Aston Villa (H).
Richarlison is second with an anytime returns projection of 54% and a 6.2 points projection in FPL Gameweek 38 vs Everton (H).
Bruno is joint-second with Richarlison with an anytime returns projection of 52% and a 6.5 points projection in FPL Gameweek 38 vs Brighton (A).
Salah is fourth with an anytime returns projection of 50% and a 5.2 points projection.
Finally, Bowen is last with an anytime returns projection of 42% and a 4.7 points projection in FPL Gameweek 38 vs Leeds United (H).
Further Read: FPL GW38 Scout Picks based on Stats and Matchups
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 38 Captaincy metrics
Erling Haaland is again at the top of the captaincy metrics with a cumulative rank factor of 4, the perfect number. Richarlison is second with a CRF value of 12. Salah is thid with a CRF value of 13. Bruno is fourth with a CRF value of 15. Finally, Bowen is last with a CRF value of 16.
Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW38:
FPL GW38 Transfer Targets based on Stats and Fixtures
AK’s FPL GW38 Team Reveal & Transfer Plans | 3x Top 5K Finishes
Top FPL GW38 Differential Picks(<10% TSB) for Gameweek 38
Top FPL Gameweek 38 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
Interview with World Number 1 FPL Manager – Erik Ibsen
FPL Gameweek 38 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold, & Sell
FPL GW38 Scout Picks based on Stats and Matchups
Link to all our FPL GW38 blogs, including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!
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What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 38 of the 2025/26 FPL Season?
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