FPL GW38 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis and Matchups

Welcome to our FPL GW38 Scout Picks blog! It’s the final week of the Premier League season and although the title has already been decided, there’s still so much to play for! As always, we hope this post offers an insight to some of the better FPL picks for this round of Premier League fixtures and aids you in your decision making for FPL GW38.

Whether you’ve read every single scout picks, the odd one or just this one, your support keeps us going – thank you! On a personal note, I’ve once again really enjoyed writing these Scout Picks blogs every week, and though we’ve been less successful than we were last year (this is my second year writing the blog), I’ve had a lot of fun all the same. I wish you all the best for the final GW of the season!

AAFPL Scout Picks 16 – 21 Official Scout Picks

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AAFPL Team62585768346077675873395259825882774032496542467785513665625455609259476761
Official FPL Team565057904357676341785452416667809235465776384068696442887853596710562597262

As always, our Scout Picks will be based on the eye test, stats, and analysis. But before we discuss player picks, let’s take a look at the fixtures for FPL GW38.

FPL GW38 Fixtures

fpl gw38 fixtures

Link to all our FPL GW38 blogs, including players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

FPL GW38 Scout Picks

FPL GW38 Scout Picks – Goalkeeper

FPL GW38 Scout Picks Goalkeeper

Raya (6.2m) remains between the sticks for FPL GW38 as freshly crowned Premier League champions Arsenal face Crystal Palace away from home. The gunners’ title was officially confirmed on Tuesday evening after man cities one-all draw with Bournemouth. They face a Palace side which will no doubt be preoccupied with European final taking place just 3 days later against Rayo Vallecano. Expect rotation from Palace…

FACT: in the reverse fixture (back in GW9) Arsenal were 1-0 victors over place. Raya faced just 1 shot on target that day.

Arsenal on the other hand have a European final of their own to think about, but will have a whole week’s rest to prepare for PSG, and will therefore likely put out a strong lineup for this match. Arsenal remain the premier defence in the league and have racked up a huge 19 CS in 37 games so far this term. His 162 point total is unlikely to be beaten (unless Pickford scores 30 points in GW38), meaning he will surely end the season as the highest scoring keeper having averaged 4.4PPG this year.

Further Read: FPL Gameweek 38 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold, & Sell

FPL GW38 Scout Picks – Defenders

FPL GW38 Scout Picks Goalkeeper

Gabriel (7.3m), Senesi (5.2m) and Porro (52) make up our backline for FPL GW38…

fpl gw38 stats

Gabriel naturally keeps his spot in the team, completing the Arsenal defensive double up which has served us so well this season. His 208 points make him by far the highest scoring Defender in FPL, going into the final game week of the season a massive 71 points ahead of second placed William Saliba. Arsenal have maintained four clean sheets in a row in their last four matches, conceding less than 1xG worth of chances in 3/4. While there’s a chance that their tempo may drop, having already been crowned champions, there’s no doubt that they are the best defense in the league and should therefore still be targeted for FPL GW38.

arsenal fpl

Fact: In two of their last 4 matches, Palace have both failed to score and failed to generate 1xG of chances.

Senesi comes into the team following his excellent run of form in recent games – the Bournemouth centre back has picked up an average of 8.6 points per game across his last 3! Bournemouth are coming off the back of a superb draw against City in which they dominated in large parts over Peps side. The cherries will be keen to continue their ridiculous winless run, knowing that a win could get them champions league football next season (should Liverpool drop points)…

defcon fpl

Senesi ranks joint top for Defcon points in the league, having picked up 52 so far this season (that’s 1.4 per start). His total of 412 defcons is bettered by only two players in the league, hitting the threshold some 72% of the time! Hill could also be considered as a budget option, but considering Senesi’s form and superior defcon stats, it makes sense to include him in our FPL GW38 scout picks team.

Porro comes into the team as somewhat of a differential option, considering his 10% ownership and recent back to back blanks. That being said, Porro is a great option – he offers a variety of point scoring avenues and will be playing in a must win fixture against a side that have very little to play for in FPL GW38.

Porro has managed to achieve 10+ defcon in 3 of his last 5 fixtures, also adding a goal to his tally in FPL GW34 against Wolves. The Spanish fullback offers secure minutes, significant goal threat, clean sheet potential and defcon potential in FPL GW38, he’s an excellent differential for Spurs’ fixture against Leeds.

Further Read: Interview with World No.1 FPL Manager

FPL GW38 Scout Picks – Midfielders

FPL GW38 Scout Picks midfielders

We’ve selected a midfield three of Bruno Fernandes (10.4m), Bruno G (6.9m), Rayan (5.4m) and Anthony (5.0m) for FPL GW38…

allaboutfpl stats

Let’s start with the obvious – Bruno Fernandes isn’t going anywhere! Having tied the all-time premier league assist record in FPL GW37 against Forest, the United midfielder will be itching to get another assist to make it 21 in FPL GW38. Bruno could’ve had at least 2 more assists in that game, creating 8 chances and 2 big chances across the match (he could’ve also scored a couple, if he wasn’t being so selfless!). Considering his form and the situation it would be madness to go without Bruno for FPL GW38, he’s staying put!

From Bruno F to Bruno G (unfortunately there’s no Bruno H, I or J currently playing in the prem), Newcastle’s talismanic midfielder gets a spot in our AAFPL GW38 scout picks team. That’s now three matches in a row without a blank for Bruno G, picking up Defcon in his last two and an assist in the one before, Bruno G is truly a diverse asset. Having missed a large chunk of the season through injury, he’s now looking back up to speed and delivering points at a similar rate to his blistering start to the season!

Fact: In all three of their last matches, at least one opposition midfielder has reached the DEFCON threshold of 12 (Rice, Scott and André).

The Brazilian has 9 goals and 7 assists despite only starting 26 games this campaign (averaging 0.39xGI/90). He’s managed just under 10 defcon per 90 (12 needed for midfielders) and picked up defcon points in 5 games. This weekend he faces a Fulham side that have very little to play for and are winless in 3.

Rayan comes into the side following another dynamic performance against City in midweek and a surprise call up to the Brazil national team for the world cup! With a spot in next years champions league up for grabs, Bournemouth will doubtless throw everything they’ve got at this game against Forest, and with how open they appeared against United in FPL GW37, there will doubtless be opportunities for Rayan to exploit.

Fact: Prior to the Man City game in FPL GW37, Rayan had 4 goal involvements in his last 4 matches, producing 3 goals and 1 assist in that time.

Forest were repeatedly caught in transition against United in GW37 against United, and although it’s true that United have the best playmaker in the league on their team, I would suggest that it is somewhat of a  systemic issue. Forest have been scoring far more goals since Pereira took charge, but have looked less solid defensively, often committing one or two too many men forwards and being caught on the break (as shown against United). Bournemouth thrive in these kinds of situations, and will generate even more chaotic transitions than United were able you, likely leading to lots of chances for the wingers like Rayan to get in behind.

Completing the midfield is Burnley’s Anthony. Somewhat of a shining light in what has been a dismal season for Burnley, Anthony lit up the league early on with a string of impressive performances and goal involvements. His returns have somewhat dried up since then, though he has produced 2 goal involvements in his last 3 games

8 goals and 4 assists is not bad at all for a winger playing for the second worst attack in the league, and one that has been virtually relegated for months… This weekend Burnley face the only team that have scored fewer goals than them in Wolves, a side that rank just above them (19th) for both goals and xG. Wolves have conceded 5 goals in their last 3 matches while Burnley’s scoring form has picked up somewhat since the appointment of an interim coach. It’s a bit of a punt, but considering his form, team form and the lack of other options (due to minutes risks), Anthony presents as a decent differential in FPL GW38.

Further Read: FPL Gameweek 38 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold, & Sell

FPL GW38 Scout Picks – Attackers

FPL GW38 Scout Picks forwards

Haaland (14.7m), DCL (5.8m) and Flemming (5.3m) make up our forward line…

allaboutfpl stats gw38

Mr inevitable scored again in FPL GW38 in what appeared to be a turning point for his side late on against Bournemouth. Ultimately it was too little too late and it ended as a draw, meaning the title slipped through Haaland’s fingers for the second season in a row.

Haaland goes into the final game of the season as top scorer, 5 goals clear of Thiago in 2nd place. His late goal against Bournemouth made it his 5 games and 5 goals in a row (Palace aside which he was benched for and didn’t come on) and 6th goal involvement in 5 games. Sure his price tag is high and he’s not quite hit the heights of previous years, but that is the price one must pay for consistent goal scoring!

DCL comes back into the team following an impressive run of three goals in three games and 4 in his last 5! This weekend Leeds travel to West Ham who are in desperate need of a win if they have any hopes of scraping into the Premier League next season. Leeds have a lot less riding on this one, but will want to end the season on a high, considering how low it had ebbed at points earlier this campaign…

With the england squad announcement coming on Friday, DCL will doubtless be hoping for a spot on the plane and may well have done enough to secure one considering the 14 goals and 2 assists he’s produced for Leeds so far this campaign. It’s his best scoring season since that Ancelotti year (20/21), and if he manages 2 more he’ll even equal that total of 16! The hammers have conceded 7 in their last 3 matches and over 5xG of chances in that time, suggesting that their defensive issues may not have wholly disappeared. DCL is Leed’s best attacker and has proved himself once again a top level goal scorer in the best league in the world.

Flemming completes our AAFPL GW38 Scout Picks team and is the final player selection of the 2025/2026 season! 2 goals in his last 5 games and 4 in his last 10 isn’t a bad rate of return considering the state of Burnley’s attacking numbers this season, and Flemming has showed himself to be a decent premier league striker. He has 10 goals so far this season which is pretty much spot on according to his xG and will be on the radar of premier league clubs come the summer.

His 0.5xG/90 isn’t half bad and puts him in and around the likes of Kroupi JR and Welbeck in terms of underlying numbers. With a home fixture on the final day of the season against the 2nd worst defense in the league in FPL GW38, Flemming looks like a solid differential option. Ps. If you’re looking for an ultra-differential captaincy option – this is it!

Further Read: Interview with World No.1 FPL Manager

FPL GW38 Scout Picks Full Team

FPL GW38 Scout Picks

Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW38:

FPL GW38 Transfer Targets based on Stats and Fixtures
AK’s FPL GW38 Team Reveal & Transfer Plans | 3x Top 5K Finishes
Top FPL GW38 Differential Picks(<10% TSB) for Gameweek 38
Top FPL Gameweek 38 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
Interview with World Number 1 FPL Manager – Erik Ibsen
FPL Gameweek 38 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold, & Sell
FPL GW38 Scout Picks based on Stats and Matchups

Link to all our FPL GW38 blogs, including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 38 of the 2025/26 FPL Season?

We’ll be covering differential picks, transfer targets, Buy, Hold, Sell analysis, scout picks, gameweek preview, captaincy metrics, FPL GW38 tips, and more. Keep checking allaboutfpl.com for all our blogs. We’ll also be posting regularly about the same on our social media accounts, so follow us on Twitter, InstagramThreads, and Facebook keep our notifications ON.

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Currently studying Modern Foreign Languages at University. Liverpool/Sheffield Wednesday Fan. Interested in translation, journalism, football and data analysis.
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