FPL Gameweek 38 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold, & Sell

GW38 is here. One last roll of the dice. One final deadline where logic, emotion, desperation, and hope all collide into 90 chaotic minutes.

After 37 Gameweeks of green arrows, red arrows, rage transfers, captaincy heartbreaks and unexpected heroes, Fantasy Premier League signs off with its traditional finale – all ten matches kicking off together, managers frantically refreshing line-ups, and mini-leagues hanging on every goal notification. The margins are now microscopic. A single differential return, a surprise benching, or one last Bruno/Haaland masterclass could change months of work in an instant.

This season has had everything. Premiums blanking when least expected, budget enablers turning into season-keepers, underdogs punching above their weight, and familiar names rediscovering old magic at crucial moments. We have seen explosive stretches from players like Palmer and Mbeumo, relentless consistency from Bruno, and enough chip carnage to traumatize even seasoned managers. Through all of it, one thing remained unchanged –  FPL’s ability to make every ordinary weekend feel deeply personal.

And history tells us GW38 rarely disappoints. The final Gameweek has consistently produced more goals than the league average across the last decade, as tired defending, emotional farewells, desperate relegation battles and “nothing-to-lose” football combine into one beautiful mess of chaos. Clean sheets become rarer, games become stretched, and suddenly even the most random differential can haul big on the final day.

Now comes the final challenge: balancing safety versus upside. Do you protect rank with highly-owned stars, or chase glory with one final differential punt? Do you captain reliability, or back the explosive fixture? GW38 is rarely predictable, but it is almost always dramatic. And somewhere between leaked line-ups, beach-on-the-mind defending and unexpected goal-fests, this season’s final chapter will be written.

Link to all our FPL GW38 blogs, including players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

FPL Gameweek 38 Transfer Tips: Two Players to BUY

Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£5.8m) – FWD, Leeds – 13.4% TSB

In the last 3 GWs, among FWDs, DCL is ranked:

• 1^st for Goals scored
• 3^rd for FPL points
• 3^rd for BPS
• 3^rd for Bonus Points

He faces West Ham next, a team ranked:

• 19^th for Shots Conceded
• 19^th for Shots in the Box Conceded
• 19^th for Shots on Target Conceded
• 18^th for xGC
• 18^th for Goals Conceded
• 18^th for Clean Sheets
• 17^th for Big Chances Conceded
• 17^th for NPxGC
• 17^th for xCS

GW38 is often about backing form against broken defences, and right now, West Ham look exactly that. Leeds will likely attack aggressively, and DCL has started looking like the classic penalty-box predator again. One scrappy tap-in can easily become a double-digit haul on the final day when games become stretched and chaotic. Picking Calvert-Lewin could turn out to be the masterstroke you needed to end the season with one final green arrow.

William Osula (£5.5m) – FWD, Newcastle – 1.3% TSB

Ever since Osula started starting games for Newcastle (GW32), among FWDs, he is ranked:

• 1^st for Goals Scored
• 1^st for Bonus points
• 2^nd for FPL points
• 2^nd for xGI
• 2^nd for xPts
• 2^nd for Big Chances
• 3^rd for xG
• 3^rd for BPS

Up next for Osula is Fulham. Since GW29, Fulham has conceded 28 Big Chances, only Wolves have conceded more in that span.

Osula feels like the perfect GW38 differential. Newcastle are still playing aggressive front-foot football, and Osula has quietly become central to their attacking threat. More importantly, he is getting the kind of chances that matter in FPL – high-quality, close-range opportunities. At just 1.3% ownership, even a single haul can create massive rank swings on the final day. I would strongly recommend buying Osula if you are chasing upside.

FPL Gameweek 38 Transfer Tips: Two Players to HOLD

Igor Thiago (£7.3m) – FWD, Brentford – 31.8% TSB

Igor Thiago is the most transferred-out player this GW. However, among FWDs, Thiago is ranked:

• 2^nd for Shots
• 2^nd for Shots on Target
• 2^nd for Shots in the Box
• 2^nd for Big Chances
• 2^nd for Goals Scored
• 2^nd for xG
• 2^nd for xGI
• 2^nd for xPts
• 2^nd for FPL Points

Thiago faces a Liverpool side that has only 1 Clean Sheet since GW28 — only Chelsea have fewer (0). In the reverse fixture, Thiago had scored an assist.

With a European spot still up for grabs, Brentford and Thiago have everything to play for in GW38. The underlying numbers remain elite, and selling a striker in this kind of form right before the highest-scoring Gameweek of the season feels unnecessarily risky. Liverpool games have also become increasingly open in recent weeks, which suits Thiago’s direct style perfectly. I would recommend holding Thiago if you already own him.

Jarrod Bowen (£7.7m) – FWD, West Ham – 13.0% TSB

Among FWDs, Bowen is ranked:

• 1^st for Key Passes
• 1^st for Big Chances Created
• 1^st for xA
• 1^st for Assists
• 1^st for DefCons

West Ham will play like their life depends on it – because in reality, it does. To avoid relegation, they have to win at any cost and hope Spurs lose. That means this should be an extremely open game against Leeds, with Bowen at the heart of almost everything attacking – either creating chances or finishing them himself. In the reverse fixture, Bowen scored a neat 5-pointer.

Leeds, meanwhile, may already have their minds on beaches, holidays, and post-season Instagram posts. That is exactly the kind of environment where a player like Bowen thrives. With motivation, creativity, and attacking responsibility all heavily tilted in his favour, I would urge you to hold Bowen if you already own him.

FPL Gameweek 38 Transfer Tips: Two Players to SELL

Viktor Gyökeres (£9.1m) – FWD, Arsenal – 17.9% TSB

Gyökeres started from the bench in GW37, and that immediately raises concerns heading into the final Gameweek. Arsenal have already wrapped up the title, which changes everything from an FPL perspective. Minutes become uncertain, intensity drops slightly, and rotation suddenly becomes a very real possibility. With the UEFA Champions League final coming up on 30th May, Arsenal are unlikely to take unnecessary risks with key players.

Even if Gyökeres starts, there is a genuine possibility of reduced minutes or an early substitution to protect fitness. That becomes a huge issue in GW38, where almost every active striker around him has both form and motivation on their side. Teams fighting for Europe or survival usually produce better FPL assets on the final day than champions already thinking about celebrations and cup finals.

At £9.1m, you also need explosive returns to justify keeping him, and right now the ceiling feels lower than several cheaper alternatives. In a normal Gameweek, you could probably hold and trust the quality, but GW38 is about maximizing upside and minimizing uncertainty. Rotation risk plus lowered team urgency is not a combination I want to invest in. Selling Gyökeres for a fully motivated forward with secure minutes could genuinely be the move that defines your final rank.

Harry Wilson (£5.9m) – MID, Fulham – 18.6% TSB

Fulham have very little left to play for, and their recent performances have reflected exactly that. The intensity has dropped, the attacking sharpness has faded, and Harry Wilson’s output has suffered badly because of it. Since GW29, he has managed only one haul and even found himself benched against Wolves, which is never an encouraging sign before the final Gameweek.

The bigger issue is that Wilson’s underlying numbers have quietly declined over the last few weeks. He is no longer consistently getting into dangerous areas, and Fulham’s attack has looked increasingly disconnected. In GW38, motivation matters a lot, and Fulham simply do not look like a side prepared to throw everything forward for one last result.

Compare that to midfielders around his price bracket who still have European qualification, survival battles, or personal milestones to chase, and Wilson suddenly feels like a low-ceiling option. Ownership can sometimes trap managers emotionally at this stage of the season, but this is probably the moment to move on. GW38 rewards aggression, upside, and chaos. Harry Wilson currently offers very little of those three things.

Further reads from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL GW38:

FPL GW38 Transfer Targets based on Stats and Fixtures
AK’s FPL GW38 Team Reveal & Transfer Plans | 3x Top 5K Finishes
Top FPL GW38 Differential Picks(<10% TSB) for Gameweek 38
Top FPL Gameweek 38 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
Interview with World Number 1 FPL Manager – Erik Ibsen
FPL Gameweek 38 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold, & Sell
FPL GW38 Scout Picks based on Stats and Matchups

Link to all our FPL GW38 blogs, including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!

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What’s next from ALLABOUTFPL ahead of FPL Gameweek 38 of the 2025/26 FPL Season?

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