The Differential Article had a decent week, where 3 of our 6 picks returned with FPL Points. This week, we will be aiming to continue with some strong scores this Gameweek.
- Jarrod Bowen – 2 Defcon – 4 Points
- Van Hecke – 1 Clean Sheet – 6 Points
- Ollie Watkins – 1 Goal, 1 Bonus – 7 Points
That makes it 50/120 Picks who have returned FPL Points from our picks this Season.
In this article, we will be highlighting 5 players who are less than 10% Owned and 1 Ultra Differential (less than 1% Owned) for all of you as of Monday, 5th January, 2026. There are many more whom you guys can consider if you decide not go with the 6 players mentioned below.
Link to all our FPL GW21 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, best forwards, and more. Completely free to access as well!
Top FPL GW21 Differential Picks
Anthony Gordon vs Leeds(H), £7.4m, TSB: 6.1%
Anthony Gordon was one of our differential picks two weeks back in GW19 with fixtures vs Burnley and Palace. Though Newcastle have won both the matches, Gordon hasn’t really fired with just 1 assist and 7 points from these 2 games. Gordon was unlucky, though, as he scored an empty net tap-in vs Palace, which was later ruled out for a very close offside call with Wissa offside in the build-up. If that goal stood, our perception would have been different. With LEE(H), WOL(A) in the next 2 games, Gordon can still haul big in any of these 2 fixtures.
Gordon is still Top among Midfielders for Expected Goal Involvement(4.25) over the last 7 Gameweeks. Even though this data includes 2 penalties, Gordon’s underlying data without penalties is good as well during this run- 10 Shots, 8 Chances Created, 1.37 xA, 1.27 nPxG during this 7-game run. Midfielder on penalties during this festive period is definitely an added bonus.
Top Midfielders for Expected Goal Involvement(Last 7 matches):
Even though Leeds have improved in recent weeks, their defensive form away from home is still not great. For a team like Newcastle, who are really good at home, and Leeds, who struggle away from home, this matchup is really good for Gordon and Newcastle.
Leeds Defense- Home vs Away:
- Shots inside the box conceded- 67 vs 84
- xGC- 10.6 vs 17.97
- Big Chances Conceded- 14 vs 23
- Goals Conceded- 13 vs 20
Further Read:
Kevin Schade vs Sunderland(H), £7.1m, TSB: 2.2%
- Schade seems to be back in form after scoring a hat-trick and getting an Assist in the last 3 Gameweeks. Schade has 9 attacking returns (6 Goals and 3 Assists) this season and usually tends to perform great at home. He has 7 attacking returns at home and faces Sunderland at home this Gameweek. His stats are also impressive with 17 Shots on Target, 30 Shots in the Box, and 11 Big Chances. He has played 18 key passes and created 6 Big Chances for his teammates.
- Although Sunderland have looked impressive and have kept 7 Clean Sheets this season and only conceded 22 Goals this season, their stats point to a declining trend. They rank in the Bottom 3 for Shots conceded and Shots in the Box conceded, and in the Bottom 5 for Shots on Target conceded and in the Bottom 6 for Non Penalty xGC.
- Additionally, Brentford rank the 3rd best team for Big Chances at home and the 7th best for xG. They have scored the 3rd most Goals in the League at home. Sunderland also tend to perform worse away from home and could face the music at the G-Tech this Gameweek.
Further Read: FPL GW21 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis and Matchups
Malick Thiaw vs Leeds(H), £5.1m, TSB: 4.4%
- Thiaw notched up a monstrous score of 17 points by grabbing his 3rd goal. He has had 6 Shots on Target, 13 Shots in the Box, and been presented with 5 Big Chances so far. He ranks among the Top 5 Defenders for Big Chances and in the Top 10 for Shots in the Box. Thiaw also got the additional 2 Defcon points for the 7th time this season, and looks like a solid option this week.
- Although Leeds have not lost in their last 7 matches and have scored in 6 of those games, they still struggle away from home. Leeds have only scored 8 Goals this season away from home and rank in the Bottom 7 for xG and non-penalty xG. Newcastle also rank in the Top 3 teams for xGC and Non-Penalty xGC. They have conceded the 3rd fewest Big Chances and 4th fewest Shots on Target. Plus, the Toon army always does well at home, so Leeds could face a fight to score this Gameweek.
Further Read: FPL GW21 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis and Matchups
Leandro Trossard vs Liverpool(H), £7.0m, TSB: 2.0%
Declan Rice has been the most transferred-in midfielder ahead of GW17 and rightly so after his 17-point haul vs Bournemouth. Nothing against Rice, He is probably the Arsenal midfielder you should go for if you are considering a long-term stable pick with no minutes risk. But if you are looking for a differential in your mini-leagues, Trossard is a good player, probably worth a punt.
Rice and Saka are the safer picks, but Trossard isn’t far off and can be considered if you want to break away from the template. Trossard has 5 goals, 4 assists from 16 appearances(11 starts) this season. Trossard has a better xG/90 and xGI/90 compared to Rice, Better Goals/90, and Big Chances/90 than Saka and Rice this season.
Saka vs Rice vs Trossard- Per 90 Stats this season
Trossard’s last 4 games minutes read as79, 81, 90, and 23 minutes. Trossard is now ahead in the pecking order on the left wing, ahead of Martinelli and Eze. He is also playing 80-90 minutes when he starts. So we can say that his minutes consistency is also improving. Trossard has started 3 out of the last 4 matches and got his rest in GW20 vs Bournemouth. So he should be back in the starting lineup in GW21 vs Liverpool(H).
Further Read: FPL GW21 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis and Matchups
Igor Jesus vs West Ham(A), £5.8m, TSB: 1.2%
- Igor Jesus has been posting some decent stats after becoming the main striker for Forest since Chris Wood’s injury. He has had 7 Shots on Target, 37 Shots in the Box, and been presented with 2 Big Chances. He has also created 2 Big Chances for his teammates and has scored 1 Goal and got 2 Assists so far this season. He now faces a good run of fixtures with games against West Ham, Leeds, and Wolves in the next 6 Gameweeks.
- Forest face a West Ham team which is ranked as the worst team for Shots on Target conceded, Shots in the Box conceded, Big Chances conceded, and ranked as the 2nd worst team for Shots conceded, Non Penalty xGC, and xGC. They have conceded the most Goals in the League (41) so far this season and have kept the joint fewest Clean Sheets.
Ultra Differential Pick for FPL GW21 (Under 1 % Ownership)
David Brooks vs Tottenham(H), £5.0m, TSB: 0.2%
If you are looking for a cheap midfield enabler for your team, Brooks can be an excellent differential option. His minutes are not great, though, as his last 4 games minutes read -66, 77, 45, and 73 minutes. With Semenyo leaving the team soon, the expected minutes for Brooks in the coming weeks should go up. In these last 4 matches, Brooks has 15 Shots and 14 Shots from inside the box – Both Highest among Midfielders.
Brooks Attack Rank among Midfielders- Last 4 Matches:
- Shots- 1st
- Shots on Target- 3rd
- Shots inside the box- 1st
- Big Chances- 2nd
- xG- 2nd
- Chances created- 6th
- xGI- 2nd
Key Stat: Over the last 4 matches, Brooks(3.6) is ranked 2nd Highest in the league for Expected Goal Involvement. But has been unlucky with only one goal involvement during this time.
Top Players for Expected Goal Involvement since GW17(Last 4 Matches):
Yes, Bournemouth are winless in their last 11 league games and are close to losing Semenyo. But the truth to be told is that their attack has been good, and the defence is the one letting them down at the moment. During these 11 games winless run, Bournemouth are ranked in the top 5 for xG, Big Chances, and Shots inside the box. With slightly better fixtures coming up, they should be able to convert the underlying data into goals and eventually points.
That’s it for Gameweek 21. We will be back with six more differentials next Gameweek, where we will be hoping to get some positive returns from our current selected Differentials for Gameweek 21.
Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL GW21
Premier League Players who will miss PL due to AFCON 2025
AK’s FPL GW21 Team Reveal & Transfer Plans | 3x Top 5K Finishes
FPL GW21 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Stats & Eye Test
FPL Gameweek 21 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold, & Sell
Top FPL Gameweek 21 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
Top FPL GW21 Differential Picks to Target Ahead of Deadline
FPL GW21 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis and Matchups
FPL GW21 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
Link to all our FPL GW21 blogs, including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!
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