Welcome to the FPL Gameweek 20 Captaincy metrics blog. It was once again a low-scoring gameweek, with both the popular captaincy options, Cunha and Haaland blanking. The one good thing about the festive period is that games come thick & fast with another deadline fast approaching us. This gameweek, Haaland will face Chelsea at home. The Arsenal duo of Gabriel and Saka will be facing Bournemouth away from home. Rogers will be facing Nottingham Forest at home, and Bowen will travel to Molineux to face Wolves. Without further ado, let’s get into it and see who tops the captaincy metrics this week.
This season, we have an 11/19 returns record. Last season, the metrics finished with 686 pts (26/38 returns), the metrics had a “26/38 returns record” in the 23/24 season, 31/37 “returns record” in the 22/23 season, and “30/38 returns record” in the 21/22 season. Do follow the man behind the metrics @AK_FPL1 (Do follow him on Twitter)
Total metrics points: 14 + 4 + 18 + 26 + 10 + 32 + 16 + 26 + 4 + 26 + 4 + 4 + 4 + 28 + 4 + 26 + 32 + 4 + 4 = 286 points
Note: “Returns” ~ player topping the metrics getting points returns and not necessarily the highest scoring option of the week.
Link to all our FPL GW20 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, best forwards, and more. Completely free to access as well!
FPL GW20 Captaincy Metrics
FPL GW20 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom of the Crowd
Erling Haaland, tops the captaincy poll for Gameweek 20 with 40% of the votes at the time of writing. Bowen, after scoring a goal against Brighton, finds himself in the second spot, with 16% vote share. The third spot is currently occupied by Rogers, who faces Nottingham Forest at home, while Gabriel takes up the fourth spot after scoring against Aston Villa. Finally, Saka, who managed only an assist in Arsenal’s 4-1 win against Aston Villa, rounds up the top five of the GW20 captaincy poll.
Further Read: FPL GW20 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis and Matchups
Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 20 Captain Picks
Haaland tops the table with 18 shots in the box, 9 Big chances, and an xG of 3.81 in the last six games.
Bowen is 2nd with an xG of 2.56 in the last six games. He’s also had 5 big chances and 16 shots inside the box.
Saka is 3rd with an xG of 2.52 in the last six games. He’s had 3 big chances and taken 18 shots inside the box during the period. He has also created 13 chances in the last six games, which is the highest amongst the five players.
Saka & Haaland’s 18 shots inside the box is also the joint highest amongst all players along with Cunha in the last six games.
Rogers stands 4th with an xG of 2.04, amassing 9 shots inside the box and 2 big chances in total.
Rogers is a form player, so it isn’t surprising to see his xG being less. He’s known to score from low xG chances, and with form on his side, managers shouldn’t be worried about his low expected numbers.
Finally, Gabriel stands last with an xG of 2.04 and a measly 5 shots inside the box and 2 big chances.
Further Read: FPL Gameweek 20 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold, & Sell
Underlying numbers of Candidate’s teams
Arsenal take the top spot and have registered 12.95 xG in the last six games. The Gunners have had 81 shots inside the box and 24 big chances during the period.
Manchester City have registered 11.57 xG in the last six games and take up the 3rd spot. They have had 64 shots inside the box and 22 big chances.
Aston Villa are 4th in the table with an xG of 10.64 during the last 6 matches. They have 53 Shots inside the box and 24 Big chances during this run.
West Ham are last in the table with an xG of 6.90 during the last 6 matches. They have had 51 Shots inside the box and 14 Big chances during this run.
Further Read: FPL GW20 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis and Matchups
Fixture Difficulty of the Candidate Team in FPL GW20
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.
We will use DraftHound’s odds for a Team scoring at least one goal in the Gameweek and the Odds of scoring more than 2.0 goals in the Gameweek as a whole.
Arsenal have 89% odds to get atleast one goal and 48% odds to get 2 or more Goals this Gameweek vs Bournemouth(A).
Manchester City are 3rd with 88% odds of at least 1 goal in this Gameweek vs Chelsea(H) and 43% odds of scoring 2 or more goals. Chelsea will be without Caicedo, and U21 manager Callum McFarlane will be on the touchline following the departure of Enzo Maresca.
Aston Villa are 4th with 82% odds of at least 1 goal in this Gameweek vs Nottingham Forest(H) and 27% odds of scoring 2 or more goals in FPL GW20.
West Ham are 5th with 70% odds of at least 1 goal in this Gameweek vs Wolves(A) and 12% odds of scoring 2 or more goals in FPL GW20.
Further Read: FPL Gameweek 20 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold, & Sell
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 20 Captain Picks
In the fourth phase of the article, I used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.
Haaland is first with an anytime returns projection of 71% and an 8.1 points projection in FPL Gameweek 20 vs Chelsea(H).
Saka is second and has an anytime returns projection of 46% and a 5.7 points projection vs Bournemouth(A), while teammate Gabriel is third and has an anytime returns projection of 43% and a 5.0 points projection.
Rogers is 4th and has an anytime returns projection of 39% and a points projection of 4.7 vs Nottingham Forest(H), and Bowen has an anytime returns projection of 38% and a points projection of 4.7 vs Wolves(A).
Further Read: FPL GW20 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis and Matchups
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 20 Captaincy metrics
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). According to our captaincy metrics, the candidate with the lowest cumulative rank factor is the ideal captaincy option.
Saka tops the captaincy metrics with a CRF of 7. Erling Haaland takes up the second spot with a CRF of 8 each, while Gabriel rounds up the podium with a CRF of 10. Rogers and Gabriel take up the fourth and fifth spot respectively, with a CRF of 16 and 17 each in the captaincy metrics for GW20.
Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL GW20
FPL GW20 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis and Matchups
FPL GW20 Predicted Lineups, Injuries, & Press Conference Updates
Top FPL GW20 Differential Picks to Target Ahead of Deadline
AK’s FPL GW20 Team Reveal and Transfer Plans- 3 Top 5k Finishes
Top FPL Gameweek 20 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
Premier League Players who will miss PL due to AFCON 2025
FPL Gameweek 20 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold, & Sell
FPL GW20 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
Link to all our FPL GW20 blogs, including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!
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