Welcome to the FPL Gameweek 18 Captaincy metrics blog. Erling Haaland, who topped the captaincy metrics last week and many FPL managers used the Triple Captain chip on him (including myself), returned with 16 point-haul. This week, Haaland & Phil Foden will face Nottingham Forest away from home. The Arsenal duo of Bukayo Saka and Declan Rice will be facing Brighton at home. The most popular transfer this Gameweek, Liverpool’s Hugo Ekitike, will be facing Wolves at home. Without further ado, let’s get into it and see who comes out on top this Gameweek.
This season, we have an 11/17 returns record. Last season, the metrics finished with 686 pts (26/38 returns), the metrics had a “26/38 returns record” in the 23/24 season, 31/37 “returns record” in the 22/23 season, and “30/38 returns record” in the 21/22 season. Do follow the man behind the metrics @AK_FPL1 (Do follow him on Twitter)
Total metrics points: 14 + 4 + 18 + 26 + 10 + 32 + 16 + 26 + 4 + 26 + 4 + 4 + 4 + 28 + 4 + 26 + 32 = 278 points
Note: “Returns” ~ player topping the metrics getting points returns and not necessarily the highest scoring option of the week.
Link to all our FPL GW18 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, best forwards, and more. Completely free to access as well!
FPL GW18 Captaincy Metrics
FPL GW18 Captaincy poll ~ Wisdom of the Crowd
Hugo Ekitike, the most transferred-in player of the Gameweek, also tops the captaincy poll for Gameweek 18, with 48% of the votes at the time of writing. Erling Haaland, after returning 16 points in GW17, finds himself surprisingly in the second spot, with 39% vote share. The third and fourth spots are currently occupied by Bukayo Saka and Declan Rice who face Brighton at home this week, who have taken points away from the Gunners in this fixture in the past. Haaland’s teammate Phil Foden rounds up the polls.
Note: Hugo Ekitike has been transferred in by more than 800k FPL managers at the time of writing, the most of any player in GW18.
Further Read: FPL GW18 Predicted Lineups, Injuries, & Press Conference Updates
Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 18 Captain Picks
Haaland tops the table with 19 shots in the box, 10 Big chances, and an xG of 4.99 in the last six games.
Foden is 2nd with an xG of 2.83 in the last six games. He’s also had 6 big chances and 13 shots inside the box.
Ektike is 3rd with an xG of 2.15 in the last six games. He’s had 5 big chances and taken 12 shots inside the box during the period.
Arsenal skipper Bukayo Saka stands 4th with an xG of 1.81, amassing 11 shots inside the box and 3 big chances in total. Teammate Declan Rice stands last with an xG of 0.65 and a measly 3 shots inside the box, 2 of which were big chances.
Further Read: AK’s FPL GW18 Team Reveal & Transfer Plans | 3x Top 5K Finishes
Underlying numbers of Candidate’s teams
Man City take the top spot and have registered 13.47 xG in the last six games. The Citizens have had 71 shots inside the box and 25 big chances during the period.
Arsenal have registered 10.01 xG in the last six games and take up the 3rd spot. They have had 61 shots inside the box and 19 big chances.
Liverpool are 5th in the table with an xG of 9.08 during the last 6 matches. They have 63 Shots inside the box and 14 Big chances during this run.
Further Read: Best Bruno Fernandes Replacements to Consider for FPL GW18
Fixture Difficulty of the Candidate Team in FPL GW18
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.
We will use DraftHound’s odds for a Team scoring at least one goal in the Gameweek and the Odds of scoring more than 2.0 goals in the Gameweek as a whole.
Liverpool have 91% odds to get atleast one goal and 55% odds to get 2 or more Goals this Gameweek vs Wolves (H) this gameweek.
Arsenal are 2nd with 87% odds of at least 1 goal in this Gameweek vs Brighton (H) and40% odds of scoring 2 or more goals in FPL GW18 against Brighton(H).
Man City are 4th with 85% odds of at least 1 goal in this Gameweek vs Nottingham Forest (A) and36% odds of scoring 2 or more goals in FPL GW18.
Further Read: FPL Gameweek 18 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold, & Sell
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 18 Captain Picks
In the fourth phase of the article, I used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.
Haaland is first with an anytime returns projection of 70% and a 7.9 points projection in FPL Gameweek 18 vs Nottingham Forest (A).
Ekitike and Saka are joint-second. Ekitike has an anytime returns projection of 62% and a 6.3 points projection vs Wolves (H), while Saka has an anytime returns projection of 55% and a 6.4 points projection vs Brighton (H).
Foden and Rice are joint-fourth in the list. Foden has an anytime returns projection of 44% and a points projection of 5.4 vs Nottingham Forest(A), while Rice has anytime returns projection of 40% and a points projection of 6.0 vs Brighton (H).
Further Read: Best Bruno Fernandes Replacements to Consider for FPL GW18
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 18 Captaincy metrics
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). According to our captaincy metrics, the candidate with the lowest cumulative rank factor is the ideal captaincy option.
Haaland tops the captaincy metrics with a CRF of 7. Ekitike, Saka, and Foden are all joint-second with a CRF of 11 each, while Rice is 5th in the captaincy metrics for GW18, with a CRF of 14.
Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL GW18
Premier League Players who will miss PL due to AFCON 2025
FPL GW18 Transfer Targets & Watchlist Based on Stats & Eye Test
Top FPL GW18 Differential Picks to Target Ahead of Deadline
FPL GW18 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis and Matchups
FPL GW18 Predicted Lineups, Injuries, & Press Conference Updates
Best Bruno Fernandes Replacements to Consider for FPL GW18
AK’s FPL GW18 Team Reveal & Transfer Plans | 3x Top 5K Finishes
FPL Gameweek 18 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold, & Sell
FPL GW18 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
Link to all our FPL GW18 blogs, including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!
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