Welcome to the FPL Gameweek 16 Captaincy metrics blog. Haaland, who was the most popular captain choice in GW15 blanked. It’s a short turnaround to GW15 after the midweek European games, Haaland & Foden will face Crystal Palace who’ll be without Daniel Munoz. Bruno will be facing Bournemouth at Old Trafford in yet another Monday night fixture for the Red Devils. Thiago will be facing Leeds at home and Saka has Wolves at home. Let’s see who comes out on top of the captaincy metrics.
This season, we have an 9/15 returns record. Last season, the metrics finished with 686 pts(26/38 returns), the metrics had a “26/38 returns record” in the 23/24 season, 31/37 “returns record” in the 22/23 season, and “30/38 returns record” in the 21/22 season. Do follow the man behind the metrics @AK_FPL1(Do follow him on Twitter)
Total metrics points: 14 + 4 + 18 + 26 + 10 + 32 + 16 + 26 + 4 + 26 + 4 + 4 + 4 + 28 + 4 = 220 points
Note: “Returns” ~ player topping the metrics getting points returns and not necessarily the highest scoring option of the week.
Link to all our FPL GW16 blogs including scout picks, players to target, buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, best forwards, and more. Completely free to access as well!
FPL GW16 Captaincy Metrics
The top five options going into our captaincy metrics this week are Haaland(vs Palace – A), Foden(vs Palace – A), Bruno(vs Bournemouth – H), Thiago(vs Leeds – H) and Saka(vs Wolves – H).
Underlying Numbers of the FPL Gameweek 16 Captain Picks
Haaland tops the table with 19 shots in the box, 8 Big chances, and an xG of 5.19 in the last six games.
Thiago is 2nd with an xG of 4.34 in the last six games. He’s also had 8 big chances, and 13 shots inside the box.
Foden who is in red hot form is 3rd with an xG of 2.75 in the last six games, he’s had 6 big chances, created 10 chances & taken 12 shots inside the box during the period.
Saka is 4th with an xG of 2.58 in the last six games. He’s had five big chances, created 12 chances and taken 12 shots in the box.
Bruno who returned with a whopping 18 points haul vs Wolves on Monday night is last with an xG of 2.48 in the last six games and has had 4 big chances & 13 goal attempts in the box. He’s also created 21 chances which is the highest among all players in the league during the period.
Further Read: Premier League Players who will miss PL due to AFCON 2025
Underlying numbers of Candidate’s teams
Man City take the top spot and have registered 13.91 xG in thelast six games. The blues have had 73 shots inside the box and 20 big chances during the period.
Arsenal have registered 11.22 xG in the last six games and take up the third spot. They have had 58 shots inside the box and 21 big chances which is one more than what Man City have had during the period.
Man United are 4th in the table with an xG of 10.68 during the last 6 matches. They have 71 Shots inside the box and 18 Big chances during this run.
Brentford are 5th with an xG of 8.50 in the last six games, the Bees have had 42 shots inside the box and 16 big chances.
Further Read: FPL GW16 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis and Matchups
Fixture Difficulty of the Candidate Team in FPL GW16
In the Third Phase of the Article, we look at the Fixture Difficulty of our 5 Candidates.
We will use DraftHound’s odds for a Team scoring at least one goal in the Gameweek and the Odds of scoring more than 2.0 goals in the Gameweek as a whole.
Arsenal have 95% odds to get atleast one goal and 55% odds to get >2 Goals this Gameweek vs Wolves(H) this gameweek. The high odds isn’t surpirsing give that it’s the league leaders facing the 20th placed team.
Man City are 2nd with 82% odds of at least 1 goal in this Gameweek vs Fulham(A) and 29% odds of scoring 2+ goals in FPL GW16 against Man City(A).
Man United are 4th with 74% odds of at least 1 goal in the Gameweek and a 33% odds of scoring 2+ goals this week against Bournemouth(H).
Brentford are last with 74% odds of at least 1 goal and a 25% odds of 2+ goals against a Leeds side that snatched a late equalizer against defending Premier League champions, Liverpool in GW15 and in the gameweek before won comfortably against chelsea.
Further Read: FPL GW16 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis and Matchups
Projections Rank of our FPL Gameweek 16 Captain Picks
In the fourth phase of the article, I used the Anytime Returns and Projected Points tools available at Fantasy Football Hub. With the help of the Anytime Returns Tool, I have derived the Safety Rank, which helps in determining the Safest Captaincy Option of the week, while I have used the Projected Points Tool to determine the Explosion Rank, which helps in determining the Most Explosive Option of the week.
Haaland is first with an anytime returns projection of 68% and a 7.4 points projection in FPL Gameweek 16 vs Crystal Palace(A).
Saka is second and has an anytime returns projection of 61% and a 6.5 points projection vs Wolves(H).
Bruno is 3rd here. He has an anytime returns projection of 47% and a points projection of 5.9 vs Bournemouth(H).
Thaigo is 4th and has an anytime returns projection of 48% and a points projection of 5.1 against Burnley(H).
Foden is 5th with the Man City star having an anytime returns projection of 45% and a points projection of 5.6 against Crystal Palace(A).
Further Read: FPL GW16 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis and Matchups
Conclusion – Final Rank from our FPL Gameweek 16 Captaincy metrics
In the Fifth and Final Phase of the article, I have aggregated the Ranks derived above to pull out the Cumulative Rank Factor (CRF). According to our captaincy metrics, the candidate with the lowest cumulative rank factor is the ideal captaincy option.
Haaland tops the captaincy metrics with a CRF of 5, one less than the least possible cumulative rank factor in our captaincy metrics.
Saka is 2nd with a CRF of 10, Foden is close behind in 3rd with a CRF of 11. Thiago & Bruno are joint 4th n the captaincy metrics for GW16 with a CRF of 16.
Further Reads from ALLABOUTFPL Ahead of FPL GW16
Premier League Players who will miss PL due to AFCON 2025
FPL Gameweek 16 Transfer Tips: Two Players to Buy, Hold, & Sell
Top FPL Gameweek 16 Captain Picks Based on Analysis & Metrics
FPL GW16 Predicted Lineups, Injuries, & Press Conference Updates
Top FPL GW16 Differential Picks to Target Ahead of Deadline
FPL GW16 Scout Picks Based on Stats, Analysis and Matchups
FPL GW16 Ultimate Guide: Tips, Differentials, Captaincy & More
Link to all our FPL GW16 blogs,including buy, hold, sell analysis, differentials, captaincy metrics, transfer targets, and more. Completely free to access as well!
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